# ElectionOdds

> Real-time U.S. and international election odds aggregated from Kalshi, a
> CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. Every probability is a live
> last-trade price (a contract at 62¢ implies a 62% chance), refreshed about
> every 5 minutes. Coverage: all 2026 Senate, House, and governor races, the
> 2028 presidential field, plus policy, SCOTUS, Fed, and international markets.

Last updated: 6 Jul 2026, 20:35 UTC

## Current headline odds
- 2026 Senate control: Republicans favored at 57% (Democrats 42%)
- 2026 House control: Democrats favored at 81% (Republicans 19%)

## Most competitive 2026 Senate races
- Alaska: Republican party — 47% (https://electionodds.live/state/alaska)
- Ohio: Sherrod Brown — 53% (https://electionodds.live/state/ohio)
- Iowa: Ashley Hinson — 57% (https://electionodds.live/state/iowa)
- Texas: James Talarico — 41% (https://electionodds.live/state/texas)
- Maine: Democratic party — 62% (https://electionodds.live/state/maine)
- Nebraska: Dan Osborn — 33% (https://electionodds.live/state/nebraska)

## What this site is
- An aggregator and data-visualization layer for prediction-market odds. It is
  not a betting site — trading happens on Kalshi, not here.
- Odds are descriptive market prices, not forecasts or endorsements by
  ElectionOdds.

## Key pages
- [Home — interactive 2026 map & chamber control](https://electionodds.live/): live Senate,
  House, and governor map plus seat-control needles.
- [President — 2028 race](https://electionodds.live/president): candidate leaderboard,
  party-nomination odds, and historical charts.
- [Congress — seat projection](https://electionodds.live/congress): live Senate/House majority
  probabilities and per-seat ratings.
- [Governors](https://electionodds.live/category/governor): all tracked gubernatorial races.
- [People — candidates](https://electionodds.live/people): per-candidate odds across every
  market that mentions them (e.g. https://electionodds.live/person/[name]).
- [All markets](https://electionodds.live/markets): full searchable list of tracked markets.
- [International](https://electionodds.live/international): elections and leaders worldwide.
- [Power index](https://electionodds.live/power-index): live balance-of-power score on a
  +50D to +50R scale, blending current control with election-market odds.
- [AI policy index](https://electionodds.live/ai-index): whether tracked races, bills, and
  policy markets favor AI oversight or AI expansion.

## How the odds work
- Each probability is the most recent traded price on the corresponding Kalshi
  market. Untraded markets are shown without a price rather than charted from a
  quote.
- "Control of the Senate/House" uses dedicated Kalshi party-control markets;
  state and district maps use the race market whose option prices sum closest
  to 100%.
- Historical line charts are built from snapshots captured every 6 hours.

## Data & attribution
- Source: Kalshi (https://kalshi.com).
- Sitemap: https://electionodds.live/sitemap.xml
- Contact: @rmcentush on X (https://x.com/rmcentush).