Election Odds Powered by Kalshi
Powered by KalshiAlabama Republican Senate primary: margin of victory·Barry Moore, 10-15%·96%(+94%)Oregon Republican Senate nominee?·David Brock Smith·1%(-90%)MI-13 Republican nominee?·Martell D Bivings·1%(-88%)PA-03 Democratic primary: margin of victory·Chris Rabb, 15-20%·90%(+87%)Alabama Republican Senate primary: Barry Moore vote percent·35% - 40%·97%(+87%)KY-04 Republican primary: voter turnout·Above 110k·1%(-80%)Kentucky Republican Senate primary: Andy Barr vote percent·60% - 65%·88%(+78%)PA-03 Democratic primary: Sharif Street vote percent·25% - 30%·95%(+67%)GA-01 Democratic nominee?·Joyce Griggs·76%(+66%)Trump-endorsed May primary candidates combo·Julia Letlow: the first round winner of the LA Senate GOP primary, Ed Gallrein: the winner of the KY-04 GOP primary, Burt Jones: the first round winner of the GA Gov GOP primary·82%(+66%)VA-06 Democratic nominee?·Beth Macy·91%(+66%)PA-03 Democratic primary: Chris Rabb vote percent·At least 45%·70%(+66%)Georgia Republican Senate primary: Derek Dooley vote percent·30% - 35%·93%(+66%)Will Trump order pre-release federal review of AI models?·Before Jun 1, 2026·74%(+64%)KY-04 Republican primary: Thomas Massie vote percent·45% - 48%·83%(+63%)

Live election odds and prediction markets for 2026 midterm and 2028 presidential races

U.S. Midterms 2026

Senate, House, and governor races by state

8317 races
222Dem
14 tossup
435 districts· 218 to control
Rep199
164
41
17
14
24
102
73

Odds breakdown — scroll for more →

highlighted = projected flip

Safe D (164)
CA-27
90-6
NV-04
90-6
PA-04
91-6
PA-12
91-6
FL-20
91-6
CO-01
91-6
CA-46
92-6
NM-01
92-5
CA-16
92-5
CA-09
92-5
MN-05
92-5
CA-36
92-5
CA-49
92-5
CA-28
92-5
NH-02
92-5
IL-08
92-5
FL-10
92-5
MD-02
92-5
CA-14
92-5
CA-39
92-5
NJ-12
94-6
VA-10
93-5
NY-05
93-5
KS-03
93-5
CA-37
93-4
WA-08
93-4
TX-29
93-4
MN-04
93-4
TX-20
93-4
PA-05
93-4
CO-02
93-4
IL-11
93-4
CT-05
93-3
NJ-06
93-4
WA-01
94-4
IL-13
94-4
CA-33
94-3
NJ-11
94-3
MO-01
94-3
CT-01
94-3
CA-50
94-3
CA-41
94-3
TX-07
94-3
MA-06
94-3
CA-01
94-3
OR-04
94-3
TX-37
94-3
IL-14
94-3
KY-03
94-3
CO-07
94-3
IL-10
94-3
AZ-07
94-3
NC-02
95-3
CA-47
94-3
NC-12
94-3
CA-24
95-3
CA-07
95-3
OH-11
95-3
IL-01
95-3
CA-08
95-3
NY-20
95-3
OR-06
95-2
MI-11
96-3
WA-09
95-2
IL-09
95-2
CA-52
95-2
WI-02
95-2
NY-26
95-2
NJ-01
95-2
CA-15
95-2
MA-03
95-2
WA-10
95-2
CA-04
95-2
CT-02
95-2
MD-03
95-2
MA-01
95-2
NJ-08
95-2
CA-38
95-2
CA-10
95-2
MI-06
95-2
CT-04
95-2
RI-01
95-2
NY-06
95-2
CA-26
95-2
MD-05
95-2
CT-03
95-2
CO-06
95-2
CA-30
96-2
TX-33
96-2
VA-07
94-0
ME-01
96-2
VA-11
96-1
TX-16
96-1
GA-05
96-1
IN-07
96-1
WI-04
96-2
TX-30
96-1
RI-02
96-1
CA-17
96-1
CA-02
96-1
MA-09
95-1
CA-32
96-1
TX-18
96-1
NY-14
96-1
GA-13
96-1
MN-03
96-1
OR-01
96-1
OH-03
96-1
MI-13
96-1
MD-07
96-1
IL-02
96-1
WA-02
96-1
WA-07
96-1
NY-07
96-1
NJ-10
96-1
NC-04
96-1
CA-35
96-1
CA-31
96-1
MI-12
96-1
VT-01
96-1
PA-06
96-1
NY-16
96-1
NY-10
96-1
MD-04
96-1
MA-08
96-1
DE-01
96-1
CA-51
96-1
CA-44
96-1
WA-06
96-1
NY-08
96-1
MA-04
96-1
IL-04
96-1
CA-12
96-1
AZ-03
96-1
NY-15
97-1
NY-09
97-1
GA-04
96-1
FL-24
96-1
VA-04
97-1
VA-03
97-1
NY-25
97-1
NY-12
97-1
IL-06
97-1
CA-34
97-1
CA-29
97-1
CA-18
97-1
HI-01
97-0
CA-19
97-0
CA-11
97-0
IL-07
97-0
GA-06
97-0
CA-43
97-0
MD-08
97-0
MA-02
97-0
MA-07
97-0
IL-05
97-0
VA-08
98-1
PA-03
97-0
IL-03
97-0
CA-42
97-0
PA-02
97-0
OR-03
97-0
MA-05
98-0
NY-13
98-0
Likely D (41)
WA-03
75-22
NJ-07
76-22
MI-10
76-20
VA-02
76-19
NE-02
78-20
NY-03
78-17
NV-03
79-18
AZ-06
79-17
NY-19
80-15
MS-02
82-17
FL-23
79-14
CA-21
82-16
IN-01
82-16
AL-07
81-15
MI-07
81-15
CA-48
83-15
CA-45
83-13
PA-17
84-14
NY-22
84-13
NV-01
84-12
NJ-09
85-12
NH-01
84-11
MI-03
86-11
NJ-05
86-11
NM-03
87-10
GA-02
87-10
OH-13
87-10
NY-18
87-9
MI-08
88-10
CA-25
88-9
MD-06
88-8
CA-03
89-9
HI-02
88-8
AZ-04
88-8
LA-02
88-8
IL-17
89-9
NJ-03
89-8
OR-05
89-8
UT-01
89-7
MN-02
89-7
CA-06
87-4
Lean D (17)
FL-14
60-37
IA-03
60-36
NY-17
61-34
WI-03
63-32
CA-22
64-31
IA-01
66-30
AZ-01
66-30
CO-08
68-29
FL-25
70-29
TX-34
69-25
PA-07
71-25
NM-02
74-27
CA-13
71-23
PA-10
72-24
TX-28
73-23
OH-01
73-22
NY-04
74-22
Tossup (14)
TX-35
48-48
IA-02
48-49
VA-01
49-46
OH-09
46-50
PA-01
44-52
TX-15
42-55
FL-22
55-40
NC-11
56-41
NC-01
56-41
PA-08
55-39
ME-02
40-57
MT-01
40-59
FL-09
40-59
OH-07
39-58
Lean R (24)
MI-04
36-60
MD-01
36-61
CO-04
32-65
WI-01
31-64
CO-05
32-65
CO-03
31-65
MN-01
31-65
MO-05
32-67
NY-01
30-68
AZ-02
29-67
FL-27
30-69
AL-02
27-67
MI-01
27-70
KY-06
25-72
FL-13
24-72
SC-06
25-73
CA-40
24-74
NJ-02
24-74
MN-08
23-74
TX-24
23-74
NY-21
23-74
OH-15
23-74
VA-05
22-74
WA-05
22-74
Likely R (102)
SC-01
24-75
TX-09
22-76
NV-02
21-76
FL-16
21-76
TX-23
21-77
NC-07
20-76
FL-15
21-78
TN-05
20-77
TX-21
17-75
GA-07
19-78
MO-02
19-78
WI-08
19-78
NC-09
19-78
OH-10
19-79
NY-02
18-78
TX-32
18-79
FL-07
18-79
MN-06
17-79
VA-06
17-79
GA-12
17-80
NC-14
17-80
WI-06
17-81
AZ-08
16-80
AZ-05
16-81
TX-31
16-81
NC-06
16-81
FL-26
16-82
TX-12
14-80
AK-01
14-80
FL-04
15-82
CA-05
15-82
OH-06
15-82
IN-05
15-83
TX-10
14-82
TX-38
14-83
GA-01
14-83
WI-07
14-83
TN-09
14-83
AR-02
15-84
WI-05
14-83
OH-14
14-83
LA-06
14-83
FL-12
14-83
FL-11
14-83
FL-03
14-83
NE-01
10-79
TX-17
14-84
FL-05
13-84
SC-02
13-84
NY-24
14-85
TX-14
13-84
PA-16
13-84
OH-05
13-84
FL-17
13-84
OK-01
13-85
FL-08
12-85
WA-04
12-85
TX-36
12-85
NC-08
12-85
FL-28
12-85
FL-21
12-85
TX-04
11-85
NY-23
11-85
KS-04
11-86
TX-26
11-86
OH-08
11-86
NC-13
11-86
GA-11
11-86
FL-18
11-86
NY-11
10-85
KS-02
11-87
KY-04
11-87
AL-05
10-86
MO-04
10-87
TX-27
10-87
OH-12
10-87
LA-01
10-87
IL-16
10-87
UT-03
10-87
TX-22
10-87
FL-19
10-88
IL-12
9-88
NC-10
9-88
LA-03
9-88
UT-02
9-88
NC-03
9-88
OK-05
10-89
FL-02
9-88
CA-23
10-89
IN-02
10-89
TX-02
8-88
PA-11
8-88
ND-01
9-89
TN-08
8-89
FL-01
8-89
TX-25
8-89
OH-04
8-89
LA-04
7-89
TX-03
7-89
NC-05
7-89
TN-07
7-89
IA-04
0-88
Safe R (73)
IN-04
9-90
SC-04
10-91
SC-07
8-90
IN-09
8-90
WV-01
7-90
AR-04
7-90
ID-02
7-91
GA-10
7-91
TX-19
7-91
TX-06
7-91
MI-05
7-91
GA-03
7-91
FL-06
7-91
KY-02
6-91
KS-01
7-91
AL-03
6-91
SD-01
7-92
TX-01
6-91
PA-09
6-91
IL-15
6-91
AZ-09
6-91
MO-03
6-92
MN-07
6-92
TX-11
6-92
TX-05
6-92
MT-02
6-92
MI-02
5-92
PA-15
6-93
TX-08
5-92
LA-05
6-93
MO-06
5-92
CA-20
5-92
NJ-04
5-92
GA-08
5-92
OK-02
5-93
TN-06
5-93
TN-02
5-93
PA-14
5-93
KY-01
5-93
GA-14
5-93
AL-06
5-93
AL-01
5-93
PA-13
5-93
GA-09
4-93
OK-03
5-93
SC-05
4-93
WV-02
4-93
UT-04
4-93
TN-03
4-93
MI-09
4-92
TX-13
4-93
OK-04
4-93
IN-08
4-93
IN-06
4-94
IN-03
4-94
OR-02
3-94
AL-04
3-94
TN-01
4-94
NE-03
3-94
ID-01
4-95
TN-04
3-94
OH-02
3-95
KY-05
3-95
AR-03
2-95
MO-07
2-95
SC-03
2-96
MS-03
2-96
MS-01
2-96
AR-01
3-97
WY-01
1-96
MS-04
1-96
MO-08
1-97
VA-09
0-98