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Powered by KalshiNatalie Harp White House departure announced?·Before Nov 1, 2026·91%(+78%)Dan Driscoll out as Secretary of the Army?·Before Jan 1, 2027·27%(-70%)When will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate?·Before Dec 1, 2026·88%(+66%)Will Ontario lift its U.S. alcohol restrictions in 2026?·Before Jan 1, 2027·83%(+63%)Louisiana's 2nd District margin of victory·Democrats, 50+ pts·15%(-45%)New York's 17th District margin of victory·Republicans, 3+ pts·15%(-45%)How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (8/16-8/22)·At least 3·1%(-44%)Arkansas's 4th District margin of victory·Republicans, 36+ pts·59%(-37.8%)Idaho Senate margin of victory·Republicans, 19+ pts·58%(-36%)Who will be the next UN Secretary-General?·Rebeca Grynspan·7%(-36%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/17 - 8/23)·Above 35·40%(+34%)How many House Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?·5·55%(-34%)Iowa Senate margin of victory·Republicans, 2+ pts·20%(-34%)New Jersey Senate margin of victory·Democrats, 17+ pts·65%(-34%)Who will be the next White House Director of Legislative Affairs?·No new Director of Legislative Affairs·47%(+32%)
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Summary

Before Jan 1, 2028 is favored at 70% as of 20 Aug 2026, 22:03 UTC across 6 markets. Kalshi odds.

  • Before Jan 1, 2028: 70% (24h change 0%)
  • Before Oct 1, 2027: 61% (24h change 0%)
  • Before Jul 1, 2027: 56% (24h change 0%)
  • Before Apr 1, 2027: 51% (24h change 0%)
  • Before Jan 1, 2027: 21% (24h change 0%)
  • Before Oct 1, 2026: 3% (24h change 0%)
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When will Trump nominate a Federal Reserve governor?

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