Policy & Law Odds — SCOTUS, Fed, Cabinet

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Alabama Republican Senate primary: margin of victory·Barry Moore, 10-15%·93%(+91%)

MI-13 Republican nominee?·Martell D Bivings·1%(-88%)

Oregon Republican Senate nominee?·David Brock Smith·3%(-88%)

PA-03 Democratic primary: margin of victory·Chris Rabb, 15-20%·90%(+87%)

Alabama Republican Senate primary: Barry Moore vote percent·35% - 40%·97%(+87%)

KY-04 Republican primary: voter turnout·Above 110k·1%(-80%)

Kentucky Republican Senate primary: Andy Barr vote percent·60% - 65%·88%(+78%)

PA-03 Democratic primary: Ala Stanford vote percent·20% - 25%·90%(+76%)

Which states will redistrict before the 2028 election?·Oregon·1%(-75%)

KY-04 Republican primary: Thomas Massie vote percent·45% - 48%·92%(+72%)

PA-03 Democratic primary: Sharif Street vote percent·25% - 30%·96%(+68%)

GA-01 Democratic nominee?·Joyce Griggs·76%(+66%)

Trump-endorsed May primary candidates combo·Julia Letlow: the first round winner of the LA Senate GOP primary, Ed Gallrein: the winner of the KY-04 GOP primary, Burt Jones: the first round winner of the GA Gov GOP primary·82%(+66%)

VA-06 Democratic nominee?·Beth Macy·91%(+66%)

PA-03 Democratic primary: Chris Rabb vote percent·At least 45%·70%(+66%)

Policy & law

Supreme court

New Supreme Court justice confirmed?

Will SCOTUS bar counting mail ballots after Election Day?

How many federal judges will be confirmed in May 2026?

Will the Supreme Court uphold transgender sports bans?

How many Supreme Court justices will the President confirm?

Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?

Cabinet

Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?

Kash Patel out as FBI Director?

Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?

Tulsi Gabbard out as Director of National Intelligence?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense?

What countries will Marco Rubio visit in 2026?

Federal reserve

When will Powell depart as chair pro tempore?

Jerome Powell out as Fed Governor?

Who will chair the June FOMC meeting?

Will Trump end the Federal Reserve?

Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor?

Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken?

Other policy

Will crypto market structure legislation become law?

Will the SAVE Act become law?

How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (5/10 - 5/16)

What will be the 51st state in Trump's term?

Will Trump's birthright citizenship order come into effect?

Will Mamdani tax luxury second homes?