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Powered by KalshiFL-06 Republican primary margin of victory?·Randy Fine, 20-30%·98%(+97%)FL-22 Republican primary: David Burck vote percent·At least 15%·99%(+94%)FL-24 Democratic nominee?·Oliver Gilbert·99%(+92%)Florida Democratic Senate nominee?·Angie Nixon·99.6%(+91.6%)FL-19 Democratic nominee?·Howard Sapp·1%(-91%)FL-06 Republican primary: Dan Bilzerian vote percent·At least 17.5%·99%(+91%)FL-06 Republican primary: Randy Fine vote percent·At least 70%·1%(-89%)FL-19 Republican nominee?·Jim Schwartzel·99%(+88%)FL-07 Republican primary margin of victory?·Ryan Elijah, 12-16%·97%(+88%)FL-19 Republican primary: Catalina Lauf vote percent·At least 25%·1%(-88%)FL-20 Democratic primary: Elijah Manley vote percent·At least 15%·1%(-88%)TN-06 House winner?·Mike Croley·9.5%(-84.3%)Who will Trump nominate as FDA commissioner?·Heidi Overton·99%(+81%)FL-12 Democratic nominee?·Darren McAuley·1%(-81%)FL-02 Democratic nominee?·Amanda Green·99%(+80%)

Policy & law

Supreme Court, cabinet, Federal Reserve, and other policy markets

Supreme court

When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?

18%
Before Jul 1, 2027
▲ +1%

3 options

$825K

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Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?

16%
Andrew Oldham
—

39 options

$667K

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How many Supreme Court justices will the President confirm?

39%
1
▼ -9%

10 options

$208K

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New Supreme Court justice confirmed?

63%
Before 2028
—

5 options

$200K

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Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement?

31%
Before Jul 1, 2027
—

3 options

$120K

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Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?

57%
Samuel Alito
▲ +1%

9 options

$103K

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Cabinet

Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?

99.3%
Karoline Leavitt
▼ -0.1%

31 options

$4.5M

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Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?

39%
Alina Habba
▲ +4%

26 options

$878K

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Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense?

3.9%
▲ +0.9%

1 option

$398K

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Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?

18%
Markwayne Mullin
▼ -1%

21 options

$139K

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Kash Patel out as FBI Director?

24%
Before Dec 1, 2026
—

4 options

$130K

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How many Cabinet members will Trump say he fired in 2026?

73%
0
—

6 options

$129K

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Federal reserve

Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?

85%
Before Jan 31, 2028
—

7 options

$280K

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Will Trump end the Federal Reserve?

4%
▼ -1%

1 option

$131K

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Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor?

8.9%
—

1 option

$70K

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Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken?

28%
Dot Plot Omitted
▼ -1%

5 options

$36K

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Will Trump try to fire Kevin Warsh?

12%
Before Jan 1, 2028
—

4 options

$32K

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Will Trump end the Federal Reserve before 2027?

3.5%
—

1 option

$10K

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Other policy

Will the Citrini scenario happen?

17%
—

1 option

$25.9M

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Will the SAVE Act become law?

4.9%
▼ -0.7%

1 option

$11.8M

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US-Iran nuclear deal?

38%
Before Jan 20, 2029
▼ -5%

9 options

$4.5M

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Will the Clarity Act become law?

46%
Before Jan 1, 2028
▲ +1%

9 options

$3.5M

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Will the SAVE America Act become law?

8.4%
Before Jan 1, 2027
▼ -0.6%

5 options

$1.7M

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What will be the 51st state in Trump's term?

3%
Cuba
▼ -1%

8 options

$1.7M

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