Policy & law
Supreme court, cabinet, federal reserve, and other policy markets
Supreme court
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement?
60%
Before Jul 1, 2027
—
5 options
Trade ↗When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?
44%
Before Jul 1, 2027
▼ -6%
3 options
Trade ↗New Supreme Court justice confirmed?
84%
Before Jan 21, 2029
—
5 options
Trade ↗Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?
16%
Andrew Oldham
▼ -1%
38 options
Trade ↗Will SCOTUS recognize a right to possess AR-15-style rifles?
74%
▼ -6%
1 option
Trade ↗Will US Supreme Court ban transgender girls and women from competing on female sports teams?
29%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Cabinet
Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?
77%
Todd Blanche
—
22 options
Trade ↗Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?
69%
Todd Blanche
—
32 options
Trade ↗Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?
86%
Jay Clayton
▲ +1%
23 options
Trade ↗Kash Patel out as FBI Director?
7.3%
▼ -2.7%
1 option
Trade ↗Which Senators will vote for Todd Blanche?
83%
Tommy Tuberville
—
9 options
Trade ↗Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense?
8.9%
Before Sep 1, 2026
▼ -1.1%
2 options
Trade ↗Federal reserve
Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?
85%
Before Jan 31, 2028
—
8 options
Trade ↗Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken?
59%
Dot Plot Omitted
—
5 options
Trade ↗Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor?
9.7%
▲ +5.4%
1 option
Trade ↗Will Trump end the Federal Reserve?
7.1%
▼ -2.9%
1 option
Trade ↗Will Trump end the Federal Reserve before 2027?
0.2%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Other policy
US-Iran nuclear deal?
79%
Before Jan 20, 2029
▲ +3%
8 options
Trade ↗Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
9.2%
Before 2027
▼ -0.2%
2 options
Trade ↗Will crypto market structure legislation become law?
43%
Before 2027
▲ +3%
2 options
Trade ↗Will the SAVE Act become law?
8.9%
▲ +0.1%
1 option
Trade ↗How many people will Trump pardon in Jul 2026?
40%
10 to 24
▲ +16%
8 options
Trade ↗Will proof of citizenship be required for federal voter registration?
11%
Before Jan 1, 2027
▼ -2%
2 options
Trade ↗