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Powered by KalshiAK-AL primary: Who will advance?·Matthew Schultz·10%(-84%)Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary?·Before Aug 1, 2026·91%(+62%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/13 - 7/19)·Above 60·16%(-50%)Who will be the next UK Foreign Secretary in 2026?·No new person·66%(+47%)Which ballot measures will pass in California?·Proposition 38·97%(+44%)Who will Donald Trump talk to in Jul 2026?·Sanae Takaichi·14%(-41%)Will the FCC pull a Big Four TV station license?·Before Jan 1, 2027·23%(-40%)Who will serve in Burnham’s Cabinet in Jul 2026?·Jonathan Reynolds·86%(+35%)RI-02 Republican nominee?·Stephen Skoly·73%(+32%)Who will leave California before 2027?·Larry Page·27%(-31%)Who will run for South Carolina Senate?·Russell Fry·78%(+31%)Who will Donald Trump meet in 2026?·Claudia Sheinbaum·93%(+27%)FL-04 Democratic nominee?·LaShonda Holloway·71%(+26%)Alaska U.S. House winner? (Person)·Nick Begich III·72%(-24.5%)Will Trump do anything this week? (7/12-7/18)·At least 7·2%(-24%)

Policy & law

Supreme Court, cabinet, Federal Reserve, and other policy markets

Supreme court

Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?

20%
Andrew Oldham
▲ +5%

38 options

$644K

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When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?

45%
Before Jul 1, 2027
▲ +4%

3 options

$597K

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Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement?

50%
Before Jul 1, 2027
—

4 options

$232K

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How many Supreme Court justices will the President confirm?

48%
1
▲ +1%

10 options

$204K

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New Supreme Court justice confirmed?

80%
Before Jan 21, 2029
—

5 options

$179K

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Will the Supreme Court overturn gay marriage?

9.9%
▲ +2.1%

1 option

$96K

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Cabinet

Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?

82%
Todd Blanche
▲ +1%

22 options

$9.8M

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Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?

69%
Todd Blanche
▼ -8%

32 options

$3.8M

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Who will be Trump's next Director of National Intelligence?

93.2%
Jay Clayton
—

23 options

$1.4M

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Kash Patel out as FBI Director?

36%
Before Dec 1, 2026
▼ -5%

5 options

$643K

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Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense?

6.6%
Before Sep 1, 2026
▲ +0.4%

2 options

$316K

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How many Cabinet members will Trump say he fired in 2026?

65%
0
—

6 options

$124K

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Federal reserve

Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?

83%
Before Jan 31, 2028
▼ -7%

8 options

$650K

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Will Trump end the Federal Reserve?

5.9%
—

1 option

$125K

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Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor?

9.5%
—

1 option

$67K

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Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken?

59%
Dot Plot Omitted
—

5 options

$27K

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Will Trump end the Federal Reserve before 2027?

3.5%
▲ +3.3%

1 option

$10K

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When will Trump nominate a Federal Reserve governor?

66%
Before Jan 1, 2028
—

6 options

$1K

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Other policy

Will the Citrini scenario happen?

24%
▲ +1%

1 option

$25.9M

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Will the SAVE Act become law?

8.2%
▼ -0.3%

1 option

$8.7M

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US-Iran nuclear deal?

64%
Before Jan 20, 2029
—

8 options

$5.6M

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Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?

7.5%
Before 2027
—

2 options

$2.0M

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What will be the 51st state in Trump's term?

5%
Cuba
—

8 options

$1.6M

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How much will the US acquire Greenland for?

83%
$0 / No Acquisition
▲ +1%

8 options

$1.5M

Trade ↗