Policy & law
Supreme Court, cabinet, Federal Reserve, and other policy markets
Supreme court
Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?
When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?
36%
Before Jul 1, 2027
▲ +3%
New Supreme Court justice confirmed?
51%
Before Jan 21, 2029
▼ -1%
How many Supreme Court justices will the President confirm?
Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?
Will the Supreme Court overturn gay marriage?
Cabinet
Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?
Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?
Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?
41%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
▲ +23%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense?
92%
Before Jan 1, 2028
▲ +3%
How many Cabinet members will Trump say he fired in 2026?
Will a cabinet member be impeached?
79%
Before Jan 20, 2029
▲ +5%
Federal reserve
Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?
Will Trump end the Federal Reserve?
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor?
Will Trump try to fire Kevin Warsh?
Will Trump end the Federal Reserve before 2027?
Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair?
Other policy
Will the Citrini scenario happen?
Will the SAVE Act become law?
Will the Clarity Act become law?
17%
Before Jan 1, 2028
▲ +1%
40%
Before Jan 20, 2029
▲ +3%
What will be the 51st state in Trump's term?
How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
90%
$0 / No Acquisition
▼ -0.1%
