International

Foreign elections, geopolitics, and global markets

All international markets

219 events

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

44%

Before Jul 1, 2027

▼ -3%

7 options

$11.0M

Trade ↗

Who will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?

82%

Nicolás Maduro

▲ +2%

18 options

$5.2M

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Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?

19%

Before January 20, 2029

▲ +2%

2 options

$5.0M

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Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?

26%

Before January 21, 2029

▲ +2%

2 options

$3.3M

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Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

47%

Benjamin Netanyahu

—

34 options

$3.2M

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Brazil Presidential election winner?

63%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

▼ -2%

13 options

$3.1M

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Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

▲ +1%

1 option

$1.8M

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Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?

5.7%

▲ +0.1%

1 option

$1.6M

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Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?

—

1 option

$1.0M

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2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner

27%

Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs)

▼ -3%

20 options

$791K

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Will Trump take back the Panama Canal?

21%

—

1 option

$575K

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Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027?

13%

Indonesia

—

11 options

$337K

Trade ↗

Will Donald Trump visit Iran?

4.9%

▲ +0.4%

1 option

$306K

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Will Iran become a democracy in 2026?

2.9%

—

1 option

$296K

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Next French presidential election winner?

37%

Marine Le Pen

—

28 options

$292K

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Which party will win the next UK general election?

35%

Labour party

▼ -2%

8 options

$247K

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Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak?

35%

Before Jan 20, 2029

—

2 options

$198K

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What countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?

97%

Peru

—

12 options

$191K

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Miguel Díaz-Canel departure announced?

4.6%

▼ -2.2%

1 option

$158K

Trade ↗

Will the US take control of any part of Canada?

11%

▲ +1%

1 option

$141K

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Who will the next Pope be?

4.2%

Luis Antonio Tagle

—

7 options

$136K

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When will Venezuela hold a presidential election?

32%

Before Jun 1, 2027

—

3 options

$134K

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Who will Donald Trump meet in 2026?

77%

Andy Burnham

—

7 options

$133K

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Who will run for President of Brazil?

98.5%

Flávio Bolsonaro

▲ +7.2%

7 options

$125K

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Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?

66%

Gadi Eisenkot

—

12 options

$115K

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Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?

57%

Gadi Eizenkot

▲ +3%

13 options

$115K

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Will Netanyahu be arrested?

10%

Before Jan 1, 2027

—

3 options

$107K

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Saxony-Anhalt state election winner?

95%

AfD

—

7 options

$102K

Trade ↗

Who will recognize Palestine before 2027?

12%

Italy

—

13 options

$97K

Trade ↗

How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026?

37%

Above 40

▼ -4%

8 options

$93K

Trade ↗

Will Alberta vote to secede from Canada?

17%

▲ +3%

1 option

$90K

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Will Israel and Qatar normalize relations before 2027?

4.7%

—

1 option

$84K

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Who will be the next UN Secretary-General?

51%

Rebeca Grynspan

▼ -6%

8 options

$78K

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Next President of Hungary?

Ákos Hadházy

—

11 options

$76K

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Israeli legislative election winner?

42%

Yashar

—

6 options

$72K

Trade ↗

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election winner?

87%

AfD

—

7 options

$70K

Trade ↗

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations during Trump's term?

38%

—

1 option

$68K

Trade ↗

UK snap election announced?

21%

Before Jan 1, 2027

▼ -4%

2 options

$59K

Trade ↗

Will Kanye West / Ye visit Israel this year?

15%

—

1 option

$58K

Trade ↗

Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?

2.8%

—

1 option

$57K

Trade ↗

Brazil presidential election: first round winner?

80%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

▼ -4%

7 options

$55K

Trade ↗

Next German federal election winner?

57%

AfD

—

7 options

$53K

Trade ↗

Vancouver mayoral election winner?

34%

Ken Sim

▼ -2%

10 options

$53K

Trade ↗

When will Xi Jinping visit Taiwan?

21%

Before 2030

—

4 options

$52K

Trade ↗

Will Trump meet the Supreme Leader of Iran?

Before Jan 1, 2027

—

2 options

$49K

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Will Iran hold a presidential election?

5.5%

—

1 option

$47K

Trade ↗

Volodymyr Zelenskyy departure announced?

5.6%

—

1 option

$46K

Trade ↗

Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Romania?

40%

Alexandru Nazare

—

25 options

$46K

Trade ↗

Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?

92%

Before Oct 1, 2026

▲ +8%

2 options

$45K

Trade ↗

Andy Burnham announces departure as Prime Minister?

50%

Before Jan 1, 2028

—

6 options

$44K

Trade ↗

Will Israel and Syria normalize relations during Trump's term?

26%

—

1 option

$38K

Trade ↗

Who will be named as Xi Jinping's successor?

24%

Ding Xuexiang

—

14 options

$38K

Trade ↗

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/17 - 8/23)

99%

Above 10

▲ +9%

11 options

$37K

Trade ↗

Quebec National Assembly election winner?

70%

▼ -1%

5 options

$37K

Trade ↗

Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (August 2026)

At least 30

▲ +3%

3 options

$37K

Trade ↗

Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?

95%

Delcy Rodríguez

—

8 options

$36K

Trade ↗

Who will be arrested in 2026?

23%

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero

—

5 options

$36K

Trade ↗

Minas Gerais Governor winner?

70%

Cleitinho Azevedo

▲ +3%

6 options

$34K

Trade ↗

Mongolian presidential election winner?

46%

Gombojavyn Zandanshatar

—

5 options

$33K

Trade ↗

São Paulo Governor winner?

96%

Tarcísio de Freitas

—

3 options

$33K

Trade ↗

Who will become Prime Minister of India after next general election?

52%

Narendra Modi

—

9 options

$32K

Trade ↗

Argentina presidential election winner?

63%

Javier Milei

▲ +5%

7 options

$32K

Trade ↗

Chief Minister of the Isle of Man after their election?

33%

Alfred Cannan

▲ +4%

10 options

$32K

Trade ↗

EU loses a member before 2030?

18%

—

1 option

$31K

Trade ↗

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

84%

Flávio Bolsonaro

—

4 options

$29K

Trade ↗

Lebanese general election winner?

61%

Election Postponed Beyond Expiration

—

10 options

$29K

Trade ↗

Cook Islands general election winner?

98%

Cook Islands Party

▲ +2%

4 options

$29K

Trade ↗

Georgian parliamentary election winner?

72%

Georgian Dream – Democratic Georgia

—

3 options

$28K

Trade ↗

Who will be a part of the next government of Israel?

94%

Yashar

—

15 options

$27K

Trade ↗

Bulgarian presidential election winner?

77%

Iliana Yotova

—

10 options

$27K

Trade ↗

Turkish presidential election: first round winner?

63%

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

▼ -8%

3 options

$26K

Trade ↗

Will Andrew Tate's party win a seat in the next UK election?

0.1%

—

1 option

$24K

Trade ↗

Lima Mayor winner?

44%

Rafael López Aliaga

▲ +34%

11 options

$23K

Trade ↗

Which of these African leaders will leave office next?

37%

Bola Tinubu

—

10 options

$23K

Trade ↗

Which countries will vote to leave the EU before 2030?

46%

France

—

6 options

$23K

Trade ↗

Who will finish first in the 2026 Likud primary?

99%

Eli Cohen

▲ +9%

4 options

$22K

Trade ↗

Scottish independence referendum called in 2026?

2.2%

▼ -0.4%

1 option

$22K

Trade ↗

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be pardoned?

13%

—

1 option

$22K

Trade ↗

Will South Korean President Lee Jae-myung serve their full term?

53%

—

1 option

$21K

Trade ↗

Next President of Estonia?

81%

Ülle Madise

▲ +4%

11 options

$21K

Trade ↗

Swedish general election winner?

94.1%

Swedish Social Democratic Party

▼ -4.8%

5 options

$21K

Trade ↗

Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei?

Before Jan 1, 2027

—

2 options

$20K

Trade ↗

Nigel Farage announces departure as Reform UK leader?

15%

Before Jan 1, 2027

—

2 options

$20K

Trade ↗

Zambian presidential election winner?

97%

Hakainde Hichilema

▼ -1.2%

2 options

$20K

Trade ↗

Zambia National Assembly election winner?

97%

UPND

—

3 options

$20K

Trade ↗

Will Christopher Luxon announce their departure as Prime Minister?

21%

Before Nov 7, 2026

—

3 options

$19K

Trade ↗

Latvia parliamentary election winner?

53%

United List

▼ -5%

9 options

$19K

Trade ↗

Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

13%

—

1 option

$18K

Trade ↗

Toronto mayoral election winner?

88%

Olivia Chow

—

5 options

$17K

Trade ↗

Australian House election winner?

53%

Australian Labor Party

—

4 options

$17K

Trade ↗

Will Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor be removed from the royal line of succession?

29%

—

1 option

$16K

Trade ↗

Lai Ching-te departure announced?

26%

Before January 1, 2028

—

3 options

$16K

Trade ↗

Will Israel and Qatar normalize relations during Trump's term?

17%

—

1 option

$16K

Trade ↗

2028 London mayoral election winner?

31%

Sadiq Khan

—

8 options

$16K

Trade ↗

Turkish presidential election winner?

58%

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

—

7 options

$16K

Trade ↗

When will Ukraine hold a presidential election?

70%

Before 2030

—

4 options

$15K

Trade ↗

Philippine House winner?

38%

Lakas

—

5 options

$15K

Trade ↗

Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?

54%

Before Jan 1, 2028

—

2 options

$15K

Trade ↗

Ghana parliamentary election winner?

59%

NDC

—

2 options

$15K

Trade ↗

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

59%

Renan Santos

—

7 options

$15K

Trade ↗

Brigitte Macron wins defamation suit against Candace Owens before 2028?

51%

—

1 option

$15K

Trade ↗

Will anyone win outright in the Brazil Presidential election?

14%

▼ -2%

1 option

$14K

Trade ↗

Philippine presidential election winner?

58%

Sara Duterte

—

5 options

$14K

Trade ↗

Gambian presidential election winner?

70%

Adama Barrow

—

4 options

$14K

Trade ↗

Sara Duterte out as Vice President of the Philippines?

41%

Before Jan 1, 2027

—

2 options

$14K

Trade ↗

Will Kim Jong-Un visit the US during Trump's term?

17%

—

1 option

$14K

Trade ↗

Malaysian general election winner?

44%

BN-anchored coalition

—

3 options

$13K

Trade ↗

Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Held

81%

—

7 options

$13K

Trade ↗

Alberta Separation Process Referendum passes?

—

1 option

$13K

Trade ↗

Brazilian Senate election winner?

78%

Liberal Party

—

4 options

$13K

Trade ↗

Will Trump endorse Netanyahu?

62%

Before Oct 28, 2026

▲ +3%

2 options

$13K

Trade ↗

Who will advance in the Brazilian presidential election?

90%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

—

6 options

$13K

Trade ↗

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

87%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

—

22 options

$12K

Trade ↗

Guatemalan Congressional election winner?

41%

National Unity of Hope

—

5 options

$12K

Trade ↗

Hannover mayoral election winner?

52%

Greens

▼ -1%

5 options

$12K

Trade ↗

French socialist bloc presidential primary winner?

38%

Raphaël Glucksmann

▲ +1%

6 options

$12K

Trade ↗

Ghana presidential election winner?

24%

Asiedu Nketia

—

6 options

$12K

Trade ↗

Ceará gubernatorial election winner?

72%

Ciro Gomes

▼ -10%

3 options

$11K

Trade ↗

Will U.S. direct flights to Russia resume?

6.3%

—

1 option

$11K

Trade ↗

Nigerian presidential election winner?

66%

Bola Tinubu

—

4 options

$11K

Trade ↗

Will Kash Patel visit Russia before November?

63%

—

1 option

$11K

Trade ↗

Will Nauru’s name-change referendum pass?

▲ +1%

1 option

$10K

Trade ↗

Next Moldovan presidential election winner?

19%

Alexandr Stoianoglo

—

7 options

$10K

Trade ↗

Who will become Prime Minister of Italy following the next general election?

51%

Giorgia Meloni

—

11 options

$10K

Trade ↗

Prime Minister of Greece after the next election?

85%

Kyriakos Mitsotakis

—

9 options

$10K

Trade ↗

Will María Corina Machado visit Venezuela?

25%

Before Jan 1, 2027

—

2 options

$10K

Trade ↗

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

38%

Lula da Silva, 5-10%

▼ -2%

6 options

$10K

Trade ↗

Taiwan presidential election winner?

59%

William Lai

—

3 options

$10K

Trade ↗

Which G7 leader will leave office next?

81%

Emmanuel Macron

—

7 options

$10K

Trade ↗

Will Steve Witkoff visit Russia?

77%

Before Jan 1, 2027

▲ +10%

2 options

$10K

Trade ↗

Kenya Senate election winner?

56%

Coalition including ODM

—

3 options

$9K

Trade ↗

Dominican Republic Chamber of Deputies election winner?

69%

Modern Revolutionary Party

—

3 options

$9K

Trade ↗

Pierre Poilievre out as Conservative Party leader?

16%

—

1 option

$9K

Trade ↗

New Zealand general election winner?

53%

Labour

—

4 options

$9K

Trade ↗

Will Elon Musk be charged with a crime in Spain or France?

13%

—

1 option

$8K

Trade ↗

Will Nord Stream 2 open?

4.1%

—

1 option

$8K

Trade ↗

Will BRICS invite a new member to join them before 2027?

13%

—

1 option

$8K

Trade ↗

Berlin state election winner?

57%

Die Linke

▲ +16%

7 options

$8K

Trade ↗

Ottawa mayoral election winner?

64%

Mark Sutcliffe

—

5 options

$8K

Trade ↗

Spanish general election winner?

71%

People's Party

—

4 options

$7K

Trade ↗

Turkish general election winner?

69%

AKP

—

4 options

$7K

Trade ↗

Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City before October?

85%

—

1 option

$7K

Trade ↗

Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?

44%

Elif Eralp

—

5 options

$7K

Trade ↗

Will Serbia announce a snap election?

27%

Before Oct 1, 2026

—

2 options

$7K

Trade ↗

Italian Chamber of Deputies election winner?

61%

Brothers of Italy

—

5 options

$7K

Trade ↗

Next Minister-President of Saxony-Anhalt?

41%

Sven Schulze

—

4 options

$7K

Trade ↗

Greek general election winner?

87%

New Democracy

—

3 options

$6K

Trade ↗

What countries will hold referenda on leaving the EU?

Hungary

—

4 options

$6K

Trade ↗

When will France announce a snap election?

16%

—

1 option

$6K

Trade ↗

Kelowna mayoral election winner?

64%

Ron Cannan

—

4 options

$6K

Trade ↗

Who will Donald Trump talk to in Aug 2026?

52%

Andy Burnham

▼ -19%

3 options

$6K

Trade ↗

Prime Minister of Serbia after the next election?

62%

Aleksandar Vučić

—

6 options

$6K

Trade ↗

How many UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?

77%

At least 6

▲ +6%

4 options

$5K

Trade ↗

Who will be the next Secretary General of NATO?

26%

Alexander Stubb

▲ +1%

8 options

$5K

Trade ↗

Osnabrück mayoral election winner?

58%

CDU

—

4 options

$5K

Trade ↗

Will Trump visit Greenland?

38%

Before Jan 20, 2029

—

3 options

$5K

Trade ↗

Will the Canadian carbon tax be repealed before 2027?

1.5%

—

1 option

$4K

Trade ↗

Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election: Most Seats Won

65%

▲ +3%

4 options

$4K

Trade ↗

Israeli legislative election: how many seats will Likud win?

88%

Above 17

—

6 options

$4K

Trade ↗

Israel Katz departure announced?

45%

—

1 option

$4K

Trade ↗

Iceland EU Membership Negotiations Referendum

57%

▼ -5%

1 option

$4K

Trade ↗

Paraguayan Senate election winner?

77%

Colorado

—

6 options

$4K

Trade ↗

Will a date be announced for another Quebec Referendum before 2029?

27%

—

1 option

$4K

Trade ↗

Mayor of Johannesburg after municipal elections?

50%

Helen Zille

▲ +4%

6 options

$3K

Trade ↗

Next government of the United Kingdom?

20%

Labour majority

—

19 options

$3K

Trade ↗

Victorian state election winner?

52%

Liberals and Nationals

—

3 options

$3K

Trade ↗

Taiwan Local Elections winner?

86%

Kuomintang

—

3 options

$3K

Trade ↗

Will Ukraine become an EU associate member in 2026?

—

1 option

$3K

Trade ↗

Kraków mayoral election winner?

70%

Łukasz Gibała

▲ +5%

10 options

$3K

Trade ↗

Prime Minister of Spain after the next election?

87%

Alberto Núñez Feijóo

—

3 options

$3K

Trade ↗

Kenyan National Assembly winner?

96.8%

Coalition including ODM

—

3 options

$3K

Trade ↗

Dominican Republic Senate election winner?

71%

Modern Revolutionary Party

—

3 options

$3K

Trade ↗

Poland general election winner?

55%

Civic Coalition

—

5 options

$2K

Trade ↗

How many people will serve as Prime Minister of the UK before 2029?

Above 5

—

2 options

$2K

Trade ↗

Brazil Gubernatorial Elections: Most Governorships Won

30%

PSD

—

4 options

$2K

Trade ↗

When will the UK's social media ban take effect?

71%

Before Aug 1, 2027

—

3 options

$2K

Trade ↗

Mexican Chamber of Deputies election winner?

90%

Morena

—

4 options

$2K

Trade ↗

How many seats will AfD win in the Saxony-Anhalt state election?

94%

36 or more

—

6 options

$2K

Trade ↗

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (8/17 - 8/23)

87%

Above 150

▼ -1%

3 options

$2K

Trade ↗

Will Spain ban bullfighting before 2027?

4.1%

—

1 option

$2K

Trade ↗

Swiss initiatives: September 2026

13%

Neutrality Initiative

▼ -39%

2 options

$2K

Trade ↗

Ilie Bolojan out as Prime Minister of Romania?

39%

Before Oct 1, 2026

—

2 options

$2K

Trade ↗

Prime Minister of Sweden after the general election?

87%

Magdalena Andersson

▼ -1%

4 options

$2K

Trade ↗

Keiko Fujimori out as President of Peru?

12%

Before Jan 1, 2028

—

3 options

$2K

Trade ↗

Rio de Janeiro Governor winner?

97%

Eduardo Paes

—

3 options

$2K

Trade ↗

Australian Senate election winner?

69%

Australian Labor Party

—

4 options

$2K

Trade ↗

UK Renewables Obligation scheme changes

50%

ROC recycle removal

—

3 options

$2K

Trade ↗

Santa Catarina Governor election winner?

93%

Liberal Party

—

4 options

$1K

Trade ↗

Winnipeg mayoral election winner?

68%

Scott Gillingham

—

3 options

$1K

Trade ↗

Cape Verde presidential election winner?

68%

PAICV

▲ +1%

3 options

$1K

Trade ↗

Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro?

86%

▼ -3%

1 option

$1K

Trade ↗

Philippine Senate election winner?

58%

NPC

—

2 options

$1K

Trade ↗

When will the next UK parliamentary by-election be called?

50%

—

1 option

$1K

Trade ↗

Nanaimo mayoral election winner?

70%

Leonard Krog

—

3 options

$1K

Trade ↗

Will Spain announce a snap election in 2026?

22%

—

1 option

$999

Trade ↗

Will the French United Left primary be canceled?

87%

—

1 option

$932

Trade ↗

Will the United Kingdom join the EU?

11%

Before 2040

—

3 options

$891

Trade ↗

Finnish general election winner?

94%

Social Democratic Party

—

5 options

$859

Trade ↗

Slovakia parliamentary election winner?

54%

Coalition including PS

—

3 options

$813

Trade ↗

Will Ontario lift its U.S. alcohol restrictions in 2026?

33%

▼ -1%

1 option

$645

Trade ↗

French presidential election: who will advance?

84%

Marine Le Pen

—

13 options

$628

Trade ↗

Traffic through the Suez Canal? (8/17 - 8/23)

94%

Above 260

—

3 options

$550

Trade ↗

Italian Senate election winner?

54%

Brothers of Italy

—

5 options

$519

Trade ↗

Paraguayan Chamber of Deputies election winner?

82%

Colorado

—

6 options

$358

Trade ↗

Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?

19%

Pauline Hanson

—

5 options

$292

Trade ↗

Nigerian Senate election winner?

64%

APC

—

2 options

$213

Trade ↗

Traffic through the Panama Canal? (8/17 - 8/23)

80%

—

1 option

$202

Trade ↗

How many new countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2028?

52%

At least 2

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4 options

$174

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Will Turkey announce a snap election in 2026?

13%

—

1 option

$163

Trade ↗

Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (8/17 - 8/23)

10%

—

1 option

$105

Trade ↗

Serbian parliamentary election winner?

88%

SNS-led list

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2 options

$97

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Bosnia and Herzegovina parliamentary election winner?

75%

SDA

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5 options

$42

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Will legislation establishing the Canada Strong Fund become law in 2026?

23%

—

1 option

$18

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Next Canadian federal election winner?

54%

Liberal Party

—

3 options

$17

Trade ↗

São Paulo Federal Senate election winners?

53%

—

1 option

$10

Trade ↗

Ontario Liberal Party leadership election winner?

11%

—

1 option

Trade ↗

Prime Minister of Fiji after the next election?

Aseri Radrodro

—

3 options

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Will any Canadian province announce a $19+ minimum wage in 2026?

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1 option

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Will Alberta announce a minimum wage increase in 2026?

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1 option

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