International
Foreign elections, geopolitics, and global political markets
All international markets
160 events
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
84%
Before Jul 1, 2027
▲ +2%
10 options
Trade ↗Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (6/29 - 7/5)
99%
Above 100
—
10 options
Trade ↗Slovak Referendum on Lifelong Payments for Leaders
1%
▼ -3%
1 option
Trade ↗Will Donald Trump visit Iran?
4.1%
Before Jan 1, 2027
▼ -1.4%
2 options
Trade ↗Which leaders will leave office in 2026?
99.1%
Gustavo Petro
—
34 options
Trade ↗Brazil Presidential election winner?
62%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
—
13 options
Trade ↗Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (June 2026)
2%
At least 80
—
2 options
Trade ↗Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?
98.5%
Andy Burnham
—
21 options
Trade ↗Who will Donald Trump talk to in Jul 2026?
99%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
▲ +6%
7 options
Trade ↗Will Trump endorse Netanyahu?
73%
Before Oct 28, 2026
▼ -1%
2 options
Trade ↗Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?
17%
Before January 20, 2029
▼ -1%
2 options
Trade ↗Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (July 2026)
98%
At least 30
—
8 options
Trade ↗Who will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?
79%
Nicolás Maduro
▲ +1%
18 options
Trade ↗2026 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner
26%
Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs)
▲ +1%
19 options
Trade ↗Will Trump meet the Supreme Leader of Iran?
4%
Before Jan 1, 2027
—
3 options
Trade ↗Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
5.8%
▲ +0.6%
1 option
Trade ↗Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak?
73%
Before Jan 20, 2029
▲ +21%
2 options
Trade ↗Will Iran become a democracy in 2026?
3%
▼ -1%
1 option
Trade ↗Will Steve Witkoff visit Russia?
56%
Before Jan 1, 2027
▲ +3%
3 options
Trade ↗Will María Corina Machado visit Venezuela?
66%
Before Jan 1, 2027
—
3 options
Trade ↗Will Serbia announce a snap election?
70%
Before Oct 1, 2026
—
3 options
Trade ↗Andy Burnham appointed as Prime Minister?
96%
Before September 1, 2026
—
4 options
Trade ↗Early elections in the UK announced?
10%
Before Jan 1, 2027
—
2 options
Trade ↗Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?
74%
Before Jan 1, 2028
▼ -3%
2 options
Trade ↗Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
34%
Gadi Eizenkot
—
9 options
Trade ↗Benjamin Netanyahu out as Prime Minister of Israel?
3%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election winner
86%
AfD
▲ +6%
7 options
Trade ↗Miguel Díaz-Canel departure announced?
26%
Before September 1, 2026
▲ +4%
2 options
Trade ↗Who will be arrested before 2027?
17%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
▼ -3%
5 options
Trade ↗Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?
20%
Before January 21, 2029
▼ -4%
2 options
Trade ↗Who will Donald Trump meet in 2026?
96%
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
—
8 options
Trade ↗Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027?
90%
Colombia
—
12 options
Trade ↗Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
33%
Lula da Silva, 5-10%
—
6 options
Trade ↗Which party will win the next UK general election?
34%
Labour party
▼ -1%
8 options
Trade ↗Minas Gerais Governor winner?
59%
Cleitinho Azevedo
▼ -9%
5 options
Trade ↗Greater Manchester mayoral election
94%
Labour
▲ +3%
6 options
Trade ↗Which G7 leader will leave next?
98.7%
Keir Starmer
▲ +2%
7 options
Trade ↗Will Alberta vote to secede from Canada?
16%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Will BRICS invite a new member to join them before 2027?
17%
▲ +1%
1 option
Trade ↗Traffic through the Panama Canal in Jun 2026?
97%
Above 900
—
7 options
Trade ↗Will Trump take back the Panama Canal?
31%
▲ +1%
1 option
Trade ↗Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?
46%
Gabriel Attal
—
27 options
Trade ↗Who will be the next Secretary General of NATO?
16%
Alexander Stubb
▲ +1%
8 options
Trade ↗Who will be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer?
57%
Ed Miliband
▲ +4%
15 options
Trade ↗Will anyone win outright in the Brazil Presidential election?
15%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?
6.6%
▼ -0.4%
1 option
Trade ↗Will the US take control of any part of Canada?
11%
▲ +1%
1 option
Trade ↗Sara Duterte out as Vice President of the Philippines?
51%
Before Jan 1, 2027
—
2 options
Trade ↗Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?
48%
Gadi Eisenkot
▼ -5%
12 options
Trade ↗New Zealand general election winner?
63%
Labour
▲ +4%
3 options
Trade ↗Brazil presidential election: first round winner?
83%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
▼ -2%
7 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Swedish general election?
96.3%
Swedish Social Democratic Party
▲ +7.3%
5 options
Trade ↗Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
62%
Renan Santos
—
7 options
Trade ↗Volodymyr Zelenskyy departure announced?
8.2%
▼ -0.3%
1 option
Trade ↗Alberta Separation Process Referendum
12%
▼ -3%
1 option
Trade ↗EU loses a member before 2030?
18%
▼ -1%
1 option
Trade ↗Who will win the next Zambian National Assembly election?
90.2%
United Party for National Development
—
2 options
Trade ↗Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary?
58%
▲ +6%
1 option
Trade ↗Will the Israeli parliament be dissolved?
78%
Before Aug 1, 2026
▲ +43%
3 options
Trade ↗Berlin State Election
38%
CDU
—
7 options
Trade ↗Will Iran hold a presidential election?
11%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Will Israel and Qatar normalize relations during Trump's term?
21%
▲ +6%
1 option
Trade ↗Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Romania?
34%
Delia Velculescu
—
25 options
Trade ↗Brigitte Macron wins defamation suit against Candace Owens before 2028?
57%
▼ -8%
1 option
Trade ↗When will Venezuela hold a presidential election?
50%
Before Jun 1, 2027
—
3 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Mexican Chamber of deputies election?
86%
Morena
▲ +84%
4 options
Trade ↗When will Xi Jinping visit Taiwan?
33%
Before 2030
—
4 options
Trade ↗Who will the next Pope be?
5.1%
Pietro Parolin
▲ +1.1%
7 options
Trade ↗Will Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor be removed from the royal line of succession?
56%
▼ -1%
1 option
Trade ↗Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations during Trump's term?
47%
▲ +2%
1 option
Trade ↗Who will win the next Philippine presidential election?
59%
Sara Duterte
▼ -7%
5 options
Trade ↗Will Benjamin Netanyahu be pardoned?
18%
▼ -9%
1 option
Trade ↗Scottish independence referendum called in 2026?
2.6%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Who will be named as Xi Jinping's successor?
22%
Chen Jining
—
14 options
Trade ↗Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?
94%
Delcy Rodríguez
—
8 options
Trade ↗Who will win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
51%
Kareem Allam
—
7 options
Trade ↗Will Kim Jong-Un visit the US during Trump's term?
17%
—
1 option
Trade ↗When will the UK's social media ban take effect?
56%
Before Apr 1, 2027
—
3 options
Trade ↗UK Renewables Obligation scheme changes
50%
ROC recycle removal
—
3 options
Trade ↗Will Ukraine become an EU associate member in 2026?
12%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Next government of the United Kingdom?
20%
Labour majority
—
19 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Turkish presidential election?
50%
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
—
7 options
Trade ↗Who will win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
75%
Olivia Chow
—
4 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Gambian presidential election?
70%
Adama Barrow
—
4 options
Trade ↗São Paulo Governor winner?
89%
Tarcísio de Freitas
—
3 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Spanish general election?
77%
People's Party
—
4 options
Trade ↗Will Spain ban bullfighting before 2027?
5.4%
—
1 option
Trade ↗When will France announce a snap election?
16%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Who will win the next Slovak parliamentary election?
54%
Coalition including PS
—
3 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Serbian parliamentary election?
88%
SNS-led list
—
2 options
Trade ↗Saxony-Anhalt State Election
98%
AfD
—
7 options
Trade ↗Rio de Janeiro Governor winner?
70%
Eduardo Paes
—
3 options
Trade ↗Who will recognize Palestine before 2027?
15%
Italy
—
13 options
Trade ↗Who will win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election?
65%
PQ
—
5 options
Trade ↗Will a date be announced for another Quebec Referendum before 2029?
18%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Who will win the first round of the next Turkish presidential election?
70%
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
—
3 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Taiwanese presidential election?
67%
William Lai
—
3 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Nigerian presidential election?
60%
Bola Tinubu
▼ -6%
4 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Polish general election?
55%
Civic Coalition
—
5 options
Trade ↗Pierre Poilievre out as Conservative Party leader?
12%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Who will win the next Philippine Senate election?
58%
NPC
—
2 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Philippine House election?
38%
Lakas
—
5 options
Trade ↗Will Peru’s JNE annul the presidential election?
3%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Will José María Balcázar be impeached?
1%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Who will win the next Turkish general election?
69%
AKP
—
4 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Paraguayan Senate election?
77%
Colorado
—
6 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Paraguayan Chamber of Deputies election?
82%
Colorado
—
6 options
Trade ↗Who will win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?
75%
Mark Sutcliffe
—
3 options
Trade ↗Will Nord Stream 2 open?
1.6%
▼ -1.4%
1 option
Trade ↗Who will win the next Nigerian Senate election?
64%
APC
—
2 options
Trade ↗Will Nauru be renamed to Naoero?
69%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Will Elon Musk be charged with a crime in Spain or France?
9%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Who will win the next Mongolian presidential election?
61%
Gombojavyn Zandanshatar
—
5 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Moldovan presidential election?
19%
Alexandr Stoianoglo
—
7 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Malaysian general election?
56%
PH-anchored coalition
—
3 options
Trade ↗Who will win the 2028 London mayoral election?
26%
Laila Cunningham
—
8 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Lebanese general election?
61%
Election Postponed Beyond Expiration
—
10 options
Trade ↗Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
23%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Who will win the 2026 Latvia parliamentary election?
27%
Latvia First
—
9 options
Trade ↗Lai Ching-te departure announced?
29%
Before January 1, 2028
—
3 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Kenyan Senate election?
56%
Coalition including ODM
—
3 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Kenyan National Assembly election?
96.8%
Coalition including ODM
—
3 options
Trade ↗Israel Katz departure announced?
43%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Will Kanye West / Ye visit Israel this year?
18%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Will Japan lower its food consumption tax in 2026?
74%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Who will win the next Italian Senate election?
60%
Brothers of Italy
—
5 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Italian Chamber of Deputies election?
51%
Brothers of Italy
—
5 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Israeli legislative election?
48%
Likud
—
6 options
Trade ↗Iceland EU Membership Negotiations Referendum
61%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election?
62%
Vamos
—
4 options
Trade ↗Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
2.8%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Who will win the next Greek general election?
84%
New Democracy
—
3 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Ghanaian presidential election?
24%
Asiedu Nketia
—
6 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Ghanaian parliamentary election?
59%
NDC
—
2 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Georgian parliamentary election?
72%
Georgian Dream – Democratic Georgia
—
3 options
Trade ↗Will South Korean President Lee Jae-myung serve their full term?
79%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Will U.S. direct flights to Russia resume?
10%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Who will win the next Finnish general election?
94%
Social Democratic Party
—
5 options
Trade ↗Will the United Kingdom join the EU?
11%
By Dec 31, 2039
—
3 options
Trade ↗What countries will hold referenda on leaving the EU?
3%
Hungary
—
4 options
Trade ↗Which countries will vote to leave the EU before 2030?
2.5%
Italy
—
6 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Dominican Republic Senate election?
77%
Modern Revolutionary Party
—
3 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Dominican Republic Chamber of Deputies election?
72%
Modern Revolutionary Party
—
3 options
Trade ↗Colombian presidential runoff: margin of victory
98%
Abelardo de la Espriella, 0-3%
—
12 options
Trade ↗Will the Canadian carbon tax be repealed before 2027?
1.5%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Who will win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election?
53%
Iliana Yotova
—
9 options
Trade ↗Will Andrew Tate's party win a seat in the next UK election?
0.2%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Held
83%
PL
—
3 options
Trade ↗Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
82%
Flávio Bolsonaro
—
4 options
Trade ↗Brazil Gubernatorial Elections: Most Governorships Won
30%
PSD
—
3 options
Trade ↗Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election: Most Seats Won
84%
PL
—
2 options
Trade ↗Who will run for President of Brazil?
98.9%
Renan Santos
—
7 options
Trade ↗Who will win the 2026 Brazilian Senate election?
83%
Liberal Party
—
4 options
Trade ↗Bosnia and Herzegovina Parliamentary Election
75%
SDA
—
5 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Australian Senate election?
74%
Australian Labor Party
—
4 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Australian House election?
53%
Australian Labor Party
—
4 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Argentine presidential election?
58%
Javier Milei
—
6 options
Trade ↗Which of these African leaders will leave office next?
38%
Bola Tinubu
—
10 options
Trade ↗Will Israel and Syria normalize relations during Trump's term?
18%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Will Israel and Qatar normalize relations before 2027?
9.9%
—
1 option
Trade ↗