International
Foreign elections, geopolitics, and global political markets
All international markets
159 events
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
86%
Before Jul 1, 2027
▲ +2%
9 options
Trade ↗US-Iran nuclear deal?
73%
Before Jan 20, 2029
▲ +6%
7 options
Trade ↗Brazil Presidential election winner?
45%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
▼ -4%
13 options
Trade ↗Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office?
49%
Before September 1, 2026
▲ +12%
4 options
Trade ↗Keir Starmer Out?
68%
Before Sep 1, 2026
▼ -9%
4 options
Trade ↗Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (5/18 - 5/24)
98%
Above 5
▲ +46%
10 options
Trade ↗Colombian presidential election first round winner?
77%
Iván Cepeda Castro
▼ -7%
5 options
Trade ↗Who will officially lead Venezuela on June 1?
97%
Nicolás Maduro
▼ -2.8%
15 options
Trade ↗Who will visit Iran before July?
4.2%
Any U.S. House member
▼ -1.6%
8 options
Trade ↗Peru Presidential election winner?
78%
Keiko Fujimori
▼ -15%
2 options
Trade ↗Who will win the 2026 Seoul mayoral election?
75%
Chong Won-o
▲ +3%
6 options
Trade ↗Which leaders will leave office in 2026?
97%
Gustavo Petro
▼ -5%
36 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Argentine presidential election?
62%
Javier Milei
▼ -2%
5 options
Trade ↗Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary?
66%
Before Aug 1, 2026
▼ -21%
3 options
Trade ↗Will Donald Trump visit Iran?
8.5%
Before Jan 1, 2027
▼ -0.3%
2 options
Trade ↗Will the Israeli parliament be dissolved?
48%
Before Jun 30, 2026
▲ +12%
3 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Colombian presidential election?
48%
Abelardo de la Espriella
▼ -5.1%
12 options
Trade ↗Who will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?
61%
Nicolás Maduro
▼ -2%
18 options
Trade ↗Which party will win the next UK general election?
35%
Reform party
▼ -4.1%
8 options
Trade ↗Makerfield by-election winner?
65%
Labour
▼ -3%
6 options
Trade ↗Malta Parliamentary Election Winner
92%
Labour Party
—
2 options
Trade ↗Who will win the 2027 French presidential election?
31%
Jordan Bardella
▼ -1.5%
28 options
Trade ↗Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak?
52%
Before Jan 20, 2029
▼ -6%
3 options
Trade ↗When will JD Vance visit Pakistan?
7%
Before May 29, 2026
▲ +4%
2 options
Trade ↗Will Iran become a democracy in 2026?
6.6%
▼ -0.8%
1 option
Trade ↗Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?
13%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Brazil presidential election: first round winner?
59%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
▼ -5%
7 options
Trade ↗Colombian presidential election: 2nd place (1st round)
65%
Abelardo de la Espriella
▲ +7%
3 options
Trade ↗Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?
24%
Before January 20, 2029
▲ +1%
3 options
Trade ↗Who will win the 2026 Latvia parliamentary election?
28%
New Unity
▲ +5%
9 options
Trade ↗Will Israel and Qatar normalize relations before 2027?
8.2%
▼ -0.1%
1 option
Trade ↗Will Iran hold a presidential election?
13%
Before Jan 1, 2027
▲ +2.3%
2 options
Trade ↗Who will Time name as Person of the Decade?
42%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
▲ +6%
2 options
Trade ↗Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027?
54%
Colombia
▼ -3%
11 options
Trade ↗Volodymyr Zelenskyy out as President of Ukraine?
12%
Before Oct 1, 2026
▼ -1%
2 options
Trade ↗Will any NATO member state boycott the USA World Cup in 2026?
3.1%
▼ -0.8%
1 option
Trade ↗Will Benjamin Netanyahu be pardoned?
23%
Before Nov 1, 2026
▼ -1%
2 options
Trade ↗São Paulo Governor winner?
92%
Tarcísio de Freitas
▲ +3%
6 options
Trade ↗Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
55%
Flávio Bolsonaro
▲ +2%
13 options
Trade ↗Who will Donald Trump talk to in May 2026?
35%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
▼ -8%
7 options
Trade ↗Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?
34%
Before January 21, 2029
▲ +1%
2 options
Trade ↗Will Kanye West / Ye visit Israel this year?
5.6%
▼ -11.4%
1 option
Trade ↗Will anyone win the Colombian presidential election in the first round?
9.8%
▼ -3.2%
1 option
Trade ↗Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
9.2%
▼ -0.8%
1 option
Trade ↗Will the US take control of any part of Canada?
11%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Romania?
12%
Șerban Matei
▼ -4%
25 options
Trade ↗Who will Donald Trump meet in 2026?
93%
Mark Carney
▲ +12%
8 options
Trade ↗2026 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner
23%
Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs)
▲ +1%
20 options
Trade ↗Who will be Prime Minister of Slovenia after their election?
92.9%
Janez Janša
▲ +2.9%
7 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Mongolian presidential election?
52%
Gombojavyn Zandanshatar
▲ +0.1%
5 options
Trade ↗Israel Katz out as Israeli defense minister?
41%
—
1 option
Trade ↗When will Xi Jinping visit Taiwan?
47%
Before 2030
▼ -4%
4 options
Trade ↗Who will be the Prime Minister of Denmark after their election?
71%
Mette Frederiksen
▼ -2.1%
4 options
Trade ↗Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?
60%
Andy Burnham
▼ -2%
21 options
Trade ↗Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
39%
Naftali Bennett
▼ -2%
18 options
Trade ↗Will Trump take back the Panama Canal?
30%
▼ -1%
1 option
Trade ↗Who will win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
38%
Kareem Allam
▲ +4%
7 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Greek general election?
76%
New Democracy
▼ -1%
3 options
Trade ↗Will Kim Jong-Un visit the US during Trump's term?
18%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Who will win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?
71%
Mark Sutcliffe
▲ +5%
3 options
Trade ↗Will Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor be removed from the royal line of succession?
65%
▼ -3%
1 option
Trade ↗Will Israel and Qatar normalize relations during Trump's term?
16%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
45%
Lula da Silva, 0-5%
▼ -3%
11 options
Trade ↗Who will be arrested before 2027?
43%
Mahmoud Khalil
▼ -2%
5 options
Trade ↗Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?
51%
Naftali Bennett
▲ +1%
12 options
Trade ↗Will Ukraine become an EU associate member in 2026?
27%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan?
35%
Before January 1, 2028
▼ -4%
4 options
Trade ↗Will Alberta vote to secede from Canada?
19%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Will the Switzerland 10 million population cap referendum pass?
37%
▼ -1%
1 option
Trade ↗Traffic through the Panama Canal in May 2026?
93%
Above 900
▲ +2%
7 options
Trade ↗Who will win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
78%
Olivia Chow
▲ +3%
4 options
Trade ↗Who will win the 2026 Quebec National Assembly election?
59%
PQ
▲ +5%
5 options
Trade ↗What countries will hold referenda on leaving the EU?
3.5%
Greece
▲ +0.2%
4 options
Trade ↗Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations during Trump's term?
43%
▼ -1%
1 option
Trade ↗Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
35%
▲ +2%
1 option
Trade ↗Who will be named as Xi Jinping's successor?
22%
Ding Xuexiang
▲ +4%
14 options
Trade ↗Scottish independence referendum called in 2026?
3.6%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Who will win the next Zambian National Assembly election?
63%
United Party for National Development
—
2 options
Trade ↗Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?
90%
Delcy Rodríguez
—
8 options
Trade ↗UK Renewables Obligation scheme changes
44%
ROC recycle removal
—
3 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Turkish presidential election?
46%
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
—
10 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Gambian presidential election?
66%
Adama Barrow
—
4 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Swedish general election?
84%
Swedish Social Democratic Party
—
5 options
Trade ↗Who will leave their position in Starmer's cabinet before July?
43%
Ed Miliband
▼ -1%
6 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Spanish general election?
72%
People's Party
—
4 options
Trade ↗Will Spain ban bullfighting before 2027?
5.3%
▼ -0.1%
1 option
Trade ↗Will early elections in the UK be announced before 2027?
14%
▼ -1%
1 option
Trade ↗When will France announce a snap election?
20%
▼ -1%
1 option
Trade ↗Slovak Referendum on Lifelong Payments for Leaders
21%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Who will win the next Slovak parliamentary election?
49%
Coalition including PS
—
3 options
Trade ↗Rio de Janeiro Governor winner?
70%
Eduardo Paes
—
4 options
Trade ↗Who will recognize Palestine before 2027?
11%
Singapore
▼ -4.1%
13 options
Trade ↗Will a date be announced for another Quebec Referendum before 2029?
21%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Who will win the first round of the next Turkish presidential election?
63%
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
—
3 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Taiwanese presidential election?
55%
William Lai
—
3 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Nigerian presidential election?
71%
Bola Tinubu
—
4 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Polish general election?
49%
Civic Coalition
—
5 options
Trade ↗Pierre Poilievre out as Conservative Party leader?
25%
▲ +3%
1 option
Trade ↗Who will win the next Philippine Senate election?
51%
NPC
—
2 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Philippine presidential election?
59%
Sara Duterte
—
5 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Philippine House election?
38%
Lakas
—
5 options
Trade ↗Will José María Balcázar be impeached?
1.8%
▼ -0.1%
1 option
Trade ↗Who will win the next Turkish general election?
63%
AKP
—
4 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Paraguayan Senate election?
74%
Colorado
—
6 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Paraguayan Chamber of Deputies election?
79%
Colorado
—
6 options
Trade ↗Will Nord Stream 2 open?
4.2%
▼ -0.1%
1 option
Trade ↗Who will win the next Nigerian Senate election?
57%
APC
—
3 options
Trade ↗New Zealand general election winner?
54%
Labour
—
6 options
Trade ↗Who will the next Pope be?
5%
Luis Antonio Tagle
▼ -0.2%
7 options
Trade ↗Will Elon Musk be charged with a crime in Spain or France?
16%
▼ -1%
1 option
Trade ↗Who will win the next Moldovan presidential election?
24%
Alexandr Stoianoglo
—
7 options
Trade ↗Minas Gerais Governor winner?
54%
Cleitinho Azevedo
▼ -4%
6 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Mexican Chamber of deputies election?
75%
Morena
—
6 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Malaysian general election?
51%
PH-anchored coalition
—
3 options
Trade ↗Brigitte Macron wins defamation suit against Candace Owens before 2028?
60%
▲ +2%
1 option
Trade ↗Who will win the 2028 London mayoral election?
22%
Sadiq Khan
—
8 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Lebanese general election?
61%
Election Postponed Beyond Expiration
—
10 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Kenyan Senate election?
46%
Coalition including ODM
—
3 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Kenyan National Assembly election?
45%
Coalition including ODM
—
3 options
Trade ↗Who will join Reform UK before June?
4%
Esther McVey
▲ +0.9%
10 options
Trade ↗Will Japan lower its food consumption tax in 2026?
62%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Who will win the next Italian Senate election?
54%
Brothers of Italy
—
5 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Italian Chamber of Deputies election?
51%
Brothers of Italy
▲ +0.1%
5 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Israeli legislative election?
50%
Likud
▲ +1%
6 options
Trade ↗Iceland EU Membership Negotiations Referendum
55%
▼ -1%
1 option
Trade ↗Who will win the next Guatemalan Congressional election?
31%
National Unity of Hope
—
7 options
Trade ↗Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
2.7%
▼ -0.3%
1 option
Trade ↗Who will win the next Ghanaian presidential election?
18%
Jane Naana Opoku-Agyemang
▼ -0.2%
6 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Ghanaian parliamentary election?
57%
NDC
▼ -2%
2 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Georgian parliamentary election?
71%
Georgian Dream – Democratic Georgia
—
5 options
Trade ↗Which G7 leader will leave next?
79%
Keir Starmer
▼ -0.3%
7 options
Trade ↗Will South Korean President Lee Jae-myung serve their full term?
93.1%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Will U.S. direct flights to Russia resume?
12%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Who will win the next Finnish general election?
70%
Social Democratic Party
—
5 options
Trade ↗Which countries will vote to leave the EU before 2030?
4.5%
Hungary
—
6 options
Trade ↗When will Venezuela hold a presidential election?
50%
Before Jun 1, 2027
▼ -2%
4 options
Trade ↗Sara Duterte out as Vice President of the Philippines?
50%
Before Jan 1, 2027
—
2 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Dominican Republic Senate election?
75%
Modern Revolutionary Party
—
3 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Dominican Republic Chamber of Deputies election?
74%
Modern Revolutionary Party
—
3 options
Trade ↗Will the Canadian carbon tax be repealed before 2027?
2.1%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Who will win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election?
62%
Iliana Yotova
—
10 options
Trade ↗Will Andrew Tate's party win a seat in the next UK election?
1.3%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Held
71%
PL
—
11 options
Trade ↗Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
37%
Romeu Zema
▲ +2%
13 options
Trade ↗Will BRICS invite a new member to join them before 2027?
53%
▲ +1%
1 option
Trade ↗Brazil Gubernatorial Elections: Most Governorships Won
31%
PSD
—
8 options
Trade ↗Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election: Most Seats Won
75%
PL
—
15 options
Trade ↗Who will run for President of Brazil?
89%
Renan Santos
▼ -1%
7 options
Trade ↗Who will win the 2026 Brazilian Senate election?
77%
Liberal Party
—
5 options
Trade ↗Will anyone win outright in the Brazil Presidential election?
15%
—
1 option
Trade ↗Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?
78%
Before Jan 1, 2028
▼ -1%
2 options
Trade ↗Bosnia and Herzegovina Parliamentary Election
75%
SDA
—
10 options
Trade ↗Berlin State Election
30%
CDU
—
7 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Australian Senate election?
64%
Australian Labor Party
—
4 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Australian House election?
48%
Australian Labor Party
—
4 options
Trade ↗Who will win the next Armenian parliamentary election?
88%
Civil Contract
▼ -2%
3 options
Trade ↗Which of these African leaders will leave office next?
32%
Bola Tinubu
—
10 options
Trade ↗Will Israel and Syria normalize relations during Trump's term?
21%
—
1 option
Trade ↗EU loses a member before 2030?
14%
—
1 option
Trade ↗