International

Foreign elections, geopolitics, and global markets

All international markets

205 events

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

69%

Before Jul 1, 2027

▼ -1%

10 options

$12.9M

Trade ↗

Who will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?

75%

Nicolás Maduro

▼ -1%

18 options

$5.0M

Trade ↗

Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?

20%

Before January 20, 2029

▲ +4%

2 options

$4.8M

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Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?

24%

Before January 21, 2029

—

2 options

$3.3M

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Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

98%

Gustavo Petro

▲ +2%

34 options

$3.2M

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Brazil Presidential election winner?

63%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

▲ +1%

13 options

$2.5M

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Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

▼ -2%

1 option

$1.8M

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Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?

99.9%

Andy Burnham

—

21 options

$1.5M

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Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026?

8.2%

▲ +1.2%

1 option

$1.4M

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Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?

5.5%

▼ -1.5%

1 option

$971K

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Clacton by-election winner?

95%

Reform UK

▼ -1%

5 options

$792K

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2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner

29%

Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs)

▲ +1%

19 options

$696K

Trade ↗

Will Trump take back the Panama Canal?

31%

▼ -1%

1 option

$552K

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Will Donald Trump visit Iran?

Before Jan 1, 2027

▼ -1%

2 options

$547K

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Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027?

90.9%

Colombia

—

12 options

$329K

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Will Iran become a democracy in 2026?

—

1 option

$276K

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Which party will win the next UK general election?

37%

Labour party

—

8 options

$235K

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Next French presidential election winner?

58%

Édouard Philippe

▲ +32%

28 options

$232K

Trade ↗

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/13 - 7/19)

98%

Above 30

▼ -1%

13 options

$202K

Trade ↗

What countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?

88%

Peru

—

12 options

$186K

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Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak?

37%

Before Jan 20, 2029

—

2 options

$184K

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Miguel Díaz-Canel departure announced?

17%

Before September 1, 2026

▼ -2%

2 options

$157K

Trade ↗

Who will Donald Trump meet in 2026?

93%

Claudia Sheinbaum

▲ +27%

7 options

$138K

Trade ↗

Who will the next Pope be?

4.2%

Luis Antonio Tagle

—

7 options

$134K

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Will the US take control of any part of Canada?

11%

▲ +1.8%

1 option

$134K

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When will Venezuela hold a presidential election?

39%

Before Jun 1, 2027

—

3 options

$125K

Trade ↗

Who will run for President of Brazil?

98.9%

Renan Santos

—

7 options

$117K

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Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?

57%

Gadi Eisenkot

—

12 options

$109K

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Which G7 leader will leave next?

98.9%

Keir Starmer

—

7 options

$109K

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Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (July 2026)

At least 50

▼ -1%

6 options

$108K

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Who will be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer?

89%

Shabana Mahmood

▲ +3%

15 options

$104K

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Saxony-Anhalt state election winner?

98%

AfD

—

7 options

$101K

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Who will recognize Palestine before 2027?

16%

New Zealand

—

13 options

$96K

Trade ↗

Will Alberta vote to secede from Canada?

16%

—

1 option

$88K

Trade ↗

Will Israel and Qatar normalize relations before 2027?

3.4%

—

1 option

$81K

Trade ↗

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election winner?

86%

AfD

—

7 options

$68K

Trade ↗

Israeli legislation election winner?

50%

Likud

—

6 options

$65K

Trade ↗

Clacton by-election: Count Binface vote percent

86%

At least 5%

—

8 options

$65K

Trade ↗

Will Trump meet the Supreme Leader of Iran?

Before Jan 1, 2027

▲ +1%

3 options

$65K

Trade ↗

Who will be the next UN Secretary-General?

54%

Rafael Grossi

▲ +2%

7 options

$63K

Trade ↗

Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?

53%

Naftali Bennett

—

9 options

$61K

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Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations during Trump's term?

36%

▲ +5%

1 option

$58K

Trade ↗

Will Kanye West / Ye visit Israel this year?

11%

▼ -8%

1 option

$57K

Trade ↗

Early elections in the UK announced?

10%

Before Jan 1, 2027

▲ +1.9%

2 options

$57K

Trade ↗

Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?

4.5%

—

1 option

$56K

Trade ↗

Greater Manchester mayoral election winner?

95%

Labour

▲ +1%

6 options

$55K

Trade ↗

How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026?

71%

Above 40

▼ -5%

8 options

$54K

Trade ↗

Andy Burnham appointed as Prime Minister?

98%

Before August 1, 2026

—

3 options

$54K

Trade ↗

When will Xi Jinping visit Taiwan?

21%

Before 2030

▲ +18.9%

4 options

$48K

Trade ↗

Brazil presidential election: first round winner?

80%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

—

7 options

$47K

Trade ↗

Will Iran hold a presidential election?

9.4%

▲ +1%

1 option

$46K

Trade ↗

When will Trump and Netanyahu meet?

64%

Before Aug 1, 2026

▼ -5%

2 options

$46K

Trade ↗

Clacton by-election margin of victory?

87%

Reform UK, ≥5%

—

16 options

$46K

Trade ↗

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/13 - 7/19)

97%

Above 10

▲ +2%

7 options

$46K

Trade ↗

Vancouver mayoral election winner?

53%

Kareem Allam

—

7 options

$43K

Trade ↗

Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Romania?

45%

Alexandru Nazare

—

25 options

$43K

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Volodymyr Zelenskyy departure announced?

5.8%

—

1 option

$38K

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Who will be named as Xi Jinping's successor?

21%

Chen Jining

—

14 options

$37K

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Will Israel and Syria normalize relations during Trump's term?

24%

▲ +6%

1 option

$37K

Trade ↗

Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?

93%

Delcy Rodríguez

—

8 options

$36K

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São Paulo Governor winner?

95%

Tarcísio de Freitas

—

3 options

$33K

Trade ↗

Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary?

99%

▲ +70%

1 option

$33K

Trade ↗

Mongolian presidential election winner?

52%

Gombojavyn Zandanshatar

▼ -2%

5 options

$32K

Trade ↗

Quebec National Assembly election winner?

73%

—

5 options

$30K

Trade ↗

Who will be arrested in 2026?

20%

Mahmoud Khalil

—

5 options

$29K

Trade ↗

Lebanese general election winner?

61%

Election Postponed Beyond Expiration

—

10 options

$28K

Trade ↗

Georgian parliamentary election winner?

72%

Georgian Dream – Democratic Georgia

—

3 options

$28K

Trade ↗

EU loses a member before 2030?

15%

▼ -2%

1 option

$27K

Trade ↗

Turkish presidential election: first round winner?

69%

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

—

3 options

$26K

Trade ↗

Argentina presidential election winner?

56%

Javier Milei

—

7 options

$26K

Trade ↗

Clacton by-election: 2nd place

71%

Count Binface Party

▼ -2%

15 options

$25K

Trade ↗

Bulgarian presidential election winner?

50%

Iliana Yotova

—

9 options

$25K

Trade ↗

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

87%

Flávio Bolsonaro

▲ +5%

4 options

$24K

Trade ↗

Will Andrew Tate's party win a seat in the next UK election?

3.4%

▼ -0.1%

1 option

$24K

Trade ↗

Scottish independence referendum called in 2026?

2.6%

—

1 option

$22K

Trade ↗

Which of these African leaders will leave office next?

38%

Bola Tinubu

—

10 options

$22K

Trade ↗

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be pardoned?

23%

—

1 option

$20K

Trade ↗

Will South Korean President Lee Jae-myung serve their full term?

65%

—

1 option

$20K

Trade ↗

Swedish general election winner?

90.2%

Swedish Social Democratic Party

—

5 options

$20K

Trade ↗

Nigel Farage announces departure as Reform UK leader?

22%

Before Jan 1, 2027

—

2 options

$19K

Trade ↗

Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (7/13 - 7/19)

87%

July 14

▲ +8%

7 options

$18K

Trade ↗

Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

23%

▲ +2%

1 option

$17K

Trade ↗

Australian House election winner?

47%

Australian Labor Party

—

4 options

$17K

Trade ↗

Which countries will vote to leave the EU before 2030?

2.5%

Italy

—

6 options

$16K

Trade ↗

Lai Ching-te departure announced?

27%

Before January 1, 2028

—

3 options

$16K

Trade ↗

Turkish presidential election winner?

58%

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

—

7 options

$16K

Trade ↗

Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei?

Before Jan 1, 2027

—

3 options

$16K

Trade ↗

Who will win the next Philippine House election?

38%

Lakas

—

5 options

$15K

Trade ↗

Will Israel and Qatar normalize relations during Trump's term?

21%

▲ +6%

1 option

$15K

Trade ↗

Ghana parliamentary election winner?

59%

NDC

—

2 options

$15K

Trade ↗

When will Ukraine hold a presidential election?

70%

Before 2030

—

4 options

$15K

Trade ↗

Will Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor be removed from the royal line of succession?

56%

—

1 option

$15K

Trade ↗

Latvia parliamentary election winner?

35%

United List

—

9 options

$15K

Trade ↗

Philippine presidential election winner?

59%

Sara Duterte

—

5 options

$14K

Trade ↗

Toronto mayoral election winner?

80%

Olivia Chow

▼ -1%

4 options

$14K

Trade ↗

Gambian presidential election winner?

70%

Adama Barrow

—

4 options

$14K

Trade ↗

Brigitte Macron wins defamation suit against Candace Owens before 2028?

53%

—

1 option

$14K

Trade ↗

2028 London mayoral election winner?

26%

Laila Cunningham

—

8 options

$14K

Trade ↗

Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?

72%

Before Jan 1, 2028

—

2 options

$14K

Trade ↗

Will Kim Jong-Un visit the US during Trump's term?

17%

—

1 option

$13K

Trade ↗

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

68%

Renan Santos

—

7 options

$13K

Trade ↗

Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?

81%

Before Nov 1, 2026

▼ -2%

2 options

$13K

Trade ↗

Zambia National Assembly election winner?

89%

United Party for National Development

▼ -1.6%

2 options

$13K

Trade ↗

Alberta Separation Process Referendum passes?

10%

▼ -4%

1 option

$12K

Trade ↗

Malaysian general election winner?

56%

PH-anchored coalition

—

3 options

$11K

Trade ↗

Ghana presidential election winner?

24%

Asiedu Nketia

—

6 options

$11K

Trade ↗

Guatemalan Congressional election winner?

29%

National Unity of Hope

—

4 options

$11K

Trade ↗

Minas Gerais Governor winner?

52%

Cleitinho Azevedo

▼ -4%

5 options

$11K

Trade ↗

Sara Duterte out as Vice President of the Philippines?

42%

Before Jan 1, 2027

—

2 options

$11K

Trade ↗

Moldovan presidential election winner?

19%

Alexandr Stoianoglo

—

7 options

$10K

Trade ↗

Will María Corina Machado visit Venezuela?

64%

Before Jan 1, 2027

—

3 options

$10K

Trade ↗

Taiwan presidential election winner?

61%

William Lai

—

3 options

$10K

Trade ↗

Will U.S. direct flights to Russia resume?

11%

—

1 option

$10K

Trade ↗

Will anyone win outright in the Brazil Presidential election?

11%

—

1 option

$10K

Trade ↗

Who will advance in the Brazilian presidential election?

93%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

—

6 options

$9K

Trade ↗

Nigerian presidential election winner?

66%

Bola Tinubu

—

4 options

$9K

Trade ↗

Kenya Senate election winner?

56%

Coalition including ODM

—

3 options

$9K

Trade ↗

Dominican Republic Chamber of Deputies election winner?

72%

Modern Revolutionary Party

—

3 options

$9K

Trade ↗

São Toméan presidential election winner?

89%

Carlos Vila Nova

▼ -3%

4 options

$9K

Trade ↗

Will Trump endorse Netanyahu?

68%

Before Oct 28, 2026

—

2 options

$9K

Trade ↗

Brazilian Senate election winner?

86%

Liberal Party

—

4 options

$9K

Trade ↗

Pierre Poilievre out as Conservative Party leader?

13%

—

1 option

$9K

Trade ↗

Who will be the next UK Foreign Secretary in 2026?

71%

Ed Miliband

—

6 options

$8K

Trade ↗

Will Nord Stream 2 open?

5.2%

▼ -0.3%

1 option

$8K

Trade ↗

Will Elon Musk be charged with a crime in Spain or France?

8.1%

▼ -5.9%

1 option

$8K

Trade ↗

Benjamin Netanyahu out as Prime Minister of Israel?

▼ -1%

1 option

$8K

Trade ↗

French socialist bloc presidential primary winner?

19%

Philippe Brun

—

6 options

$8K

Trade ↗

New Zealand general election winner?

59%

Labour

—

3 options

$7K

Trade ↗

Spanish general election winner?

81%

People's Party

—

4 options

$7K

Trade ↗

Will BRICS invite a new member to join them before 2027?

12%

—

1 option

$7K

Trade ↗

Greater Manchester mayoral election: 2nd place

61%

Reform UK

▲ +3%

5 options

$7K

Trade ↗

Will Serbia announce a snap election?

62%

Before Oct 1, 2026

—

3 options

$6K

Trade ↗

Turkish general election winner?

69%

AKP

—

4 options

$6K

Trade ↗

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

47%

Lula da Silva, ≥15%

—

6 options

$6K

Trade ↗

Italian Chamber of Deputies election winner?

51%

Brothers of Italy

—

5 options

$6K

Trade ↗

What countries will hold referenda on leaving the EU?

Hungary

—

4 options

$6K

Trade ↗

When will France announce a snap election?

16%

—

1 option

$6K

Trade ↗

Who will Donald Trump talk to in Jul 2026?

14%

Sanae Takaichi

▼ -41%

3 options

$6K

Trade ↗

Clacton by-election: 3rd place

24%

Count Binface Party

▲ +1%

15 options

$6K

Trade ↗

Will Peru’s JNE annul the presidential election?

—

1 option

$5K

Trade ↗

Will Steve Witkoff visit Russia?

57%

Before Jan 1, 2027

—

3 options

$5K

Trade ↗

Clacton by-election: 4th place

19%

Reclaim Party

▲ +8%

15 options

$5K

Trade ↗

Will Nauru be renamed to Naoero?

63%

—

1 option

$5K

Trade ↗

Greek general election winner?

87%

New Democracy

—

3 options

$5K

Trade ↗

Will Japan lower its food consumption tax in 2026?

66%

—

1 option

$5K

Trade ↗

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

87%

Édouard Philippe

—

22 options

$5K

Trade ↗

Ilie Bolojan out as Prime Minister of Romania?

48%

Before Oct 1, 2026

—

3 options

$5K

Trade ↗

Will the Canadian carbon tax be repealed before 2027?

6.2%

▼ -0.4%

1 option

$4K

Trade ↗

Berlin state election winner?

42%

Die Linke

▲ +6%

7 options

$4K

Trade ↗

Israel Katz departure announced?

44%

▲ +1%

1 option

$4K

Trade ↗

Paraguayan Senate election winner?

77%

Colorado

—

6 options

$4K

Trade ↗

Will a date be announced for another Quebec Referendum before 2029?

27%

—

1 option

$4K

Trade ↗

Next government of the United Kingdom?

20%

Labour majority

—

19 options

$3K

Trade ↗

Will Ukraine become an EU associate member in 2026?

13%

▲ +4%

1 option

$3K

Trade ↗

Taiwan Local Elections winner?

85%

Kuomintang

—

3 options

$3K

Trade ↗

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/20 - 7/26)

90%

Above 20

▼ -8%

10 options

$3K

Trade ↗

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/20 - 7/26)

53%

Above 10

—

6 options

$3K

Trade ↗

Who will win the next Kenyan National Assembly election?

96.8%

Coalition including ODM

—

3 options

$3K

Trade ↗

Greater Manchester mayoral election margin of victory?

83%

Labour, ≥10%

▲ +5%

8 options

$3K

Trade ↗

Dominican Republic Senate election winner?

77%

Modern Revolutionary Party

—

3 options

$3K

Trade ↗

Poland general election winner?

55%

Civic Coalition

—

5 options

$2K

Trade ↗

How many people will serve as Prime Minister of the UK before 2029?

Above 5

—

2 options

$2K

Trade ↗

Will Spain ban bullfighting before 2027?

4.3%

▼ -0.9%

1 option

$2K

Trade ↗

Ottawa mayoral election winner?

75%

Mark Sutcliffe

—

3 options

$2K

Trade ↗

How many UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?

99%

At least 5

—

5 options

$2K

Trade ↗

Who will be the next Secretary General of NATO?

18%

Alexander Stubb

—

8 options

$2K

Trade ↗

Who will serve in Burnham’s Cabinet in Jul 2026?

98%

Ed Miliband

—

29 options

$2K

Trade ↗

Australian Senate election winner?

74%

Australian Labor Party

—

4 options

$2K

Trade ↗

Rio de Janeiro Governor winner?

89%

Eduardo Paes

—

3 options

$2K

Trade ↗

Swiss initiatives: September 2026

Food Initiative

—

2 options

$2K

Trade ↗

Prime Minister of Spain after the next election?

83%

Alberto Núñez Feijóo

—

3 options

$2K

Trade ↗

When will the UK's social media ban take effect?

77%

Before Aug 1, 2027

—

3 options

$2K

Trade ↗

Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Held

92%

—

3 options

$2K

Trade ↗

UK Renewables Obligation scheme changes

50%

ROC recycle removal

—

3 options

$2K

Trade ↗

Will Trump visit Greenland?

44%

Before Jan 20, 2029

—

3 options

$2K

Trade ↗

Will José María Balcázar be impeached?

—

1 option

$2K

Trade ↗

Philippine Senate election winner?

58%

NPC

—

2 options

$1K

Trade ↗

Mayor of Johannesburg after municipal elections?

19%

Frank Chikane

—

4 options

$1K

Trade ↗

Cook Islands general election winner?

61%

Cook Islands Party

—

4 options

$903

Trade ↗

Keiko Fujimori out as President of Peru?

17%

Before Jan 1, 2028

—

3 options

$875

Trade ↗

Finnish general election winner?

94%

Social Democratic Party

—

5 options

$859

Trade ↗

Slovakia parliamentary election winner?

54%

Coalition including PS

—

3 options

$813

Trade ↗

Brazil Gubernatorial Elections: Most Governorships Won

37%

PSD

—

3 options

$809

Trade ↗

Will the United Kingdom join the EU?

11%

Before 2040

—

3 options

$785

Trade ↗

Mexican Chamber of Deputies election winner?

86%

Morena

—

4 options

$712

Trade ↗

Iceland EU Membership Negotiations Referendum

49%

▼ -3%

1 option

$700

Trade ↗

Will Spain announce a snap election in 2026?

30%

—

1 option

$660

Trade ↗

Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election: Most Seats Won

73%

—

3 options

$530

Trade ↗

Will the French United Left primary be canceled?

81%

—

1 option

$514

Trade ↗

Italian Senate election winner?

60%

Brothers of Italy

—

5 options

$453

Trade ↗

Prime Minister of Serbia after the next election?

70%

Aleksandar Vučić

—

6 options

$431

Trade ↗

Paraguayan Chamber of Deputies election winner?

82%

Colorado

—

6 options

$357

Trade ↗

How many seats will AfD win in the Saxony-Anhalt state election?

58%

40 or more

—

3 options

$299

Trade ↗

Cape Verde presidential election winner?

35%

MpD

—

2 options

$286

Trade ↗

Prime Minister of Sweden after the general election?

78%

Magdalena Andersson

—

4 options

$280

Trade ↗

Nigerian Senate election winner?

64%

APC

—

2 options

$213

Trade ↗

Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (7/20 - 7/26)

17%

July 20

—

2 options

$208

Trade ↗

Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?

Richard Marles

—

3 options

$193

Trade ↗

French presidential election: who will advance?

49%

Marine Le Pen

—

13 options

$134

Trade ↗

Serbian parliamentary election winner?

88%

SNS-led list

—

2 options

$97

Trade ↗

Bosnia and Herzegovina parliamentary election winner?

75%

SDA

—

5 options

$42

Trade ↗

Will legislation establishing the Canada Strong Fund become law in 2026?

35%

—

1 option

Trade ↗

Will Turkey announce a snap election in 2026?

10%

—

1 option

Trade ↗

Will any Canadian province announce a $19+ minimum wage in 2026?

13%

—

1 option

Trade ↗

Will Alberta announce a minimum wage increase in 2026?

—

1 option

Trade ↗