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Powered by KalshiWhich abortion-related measures will pass in 2026?·Missouri Amendment 3·95%(+80%)Will Trump's approval rating increase this week? (8/28-9/4)?·Above 38.6%·76%(+56%)Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (September 2026)·At least 15·16%(-54%)Who will win the Pennsylvania State House District 12 general election?·Brandon Dukes·99%(+54%)How many people will serve as Speaker of the House in 2026?·Exactly 2·57%(+48.5%)Which states will Trump visit in 2026?·Alaska·88%(+48%)Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place·Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva·50%(+43%)Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary margin of victory? (Ed Markey)·Ed Markey, ≥30%·9%(-43%)When will the UK cut or repeal its digital services tax?·Before Nov 1, 2026·82%(+43%)Which countries will vote to leave the EU before 2030?·France·6.8%(-39.2%)Will a GOP member of Congress call for Trump's impeachment?·Before 2028·75%(+38%)Who will Donald Trump talk to in Sep 2026?·António Guterres·80%(+37%)Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)·Ro Khanna·25%(-34%)Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (8/28-9/4)?·Above 5.9%·17%(-34%)Which lists will win a Knesset seat?·Religious Zionist Party·41%(-34%)

American power index

Who has power now, and who markets expect will win next.

EVENDEMREP0.0 R

Narrow Republican edge

0.1 toward Democrats today

Now and markets

Current control is 25% of the score. Markets are 75%.

Drivers

Presidency

R +1.8
to index
Markets · 202859% D
59%
41%
Holds it nowR

Senate

R +3.5
to index
Markets · 202652% R
48%
52%
Holds it now53R / 47D

House

D +3.4
to index
Markets · 202684% D
84%
16%
Holds it now218R / 212D / 1I

Seat counts

Senate seats

2026 midterm seats

Even
margin
Dem seats
50.0
Rep seats
50.0
47.5% D control
52.5% R control
D marketR market

House seats

2026 midterm seats

23.5D
margin
Dem seats
229.2
Rep seats
205.8
79.3% D majority
20.7% R majority
D marketR market

Margins

Senate margins

32 races tracked

0.4R
average
Expected size14.6 pts

House margins

336 races tracked

4.4D
average
Expected size18.5 pts

Closest margins

closest
Texas's 15th District
House · 8 prices
0.2D
North Carolina's 11th District
House · 7 prices
0.3D
Washington's 5th District
House · 1 prices
0.3D
Georgia's 9th District
House · 3 prices
0.4R
Texas Senate
Senate · 11 prices
0.6R
North Carolina's 1st District
House · 8 prices
0.6D

Government function

shutdown drag

−9.5%
drag

2.5 expected shutdowns by Jan 2027. Shutdown risk pulls the score toward zero.

How it works

The scale runs from +50 D to 0 to +50 R. Zero means power is roughly even.

Each branch blends market odds for the next election (75%) with current control (25%). Congress also uses seat-count and margin markets. Shutdown risk pulls the score toward zero.

The strip under the dial shows the split: current control, market odds, and the final blend. The trend chart is rebuilt from daily snapshots.

Not Kalshi's official KPOW. This site uses public market prices, so the number can differ.