American power index
One live number for the balance of federal power — blending who controls Washington today with where prediction markets think it's heading.
Narrow Republican edge
What's driving it
Presidency
Senate
House
How it's calculated
The index runs from +50 D (maximum Democratic control) through 0 (even) to +50 R (maximum Republican control). Each branch — the Presidency, Senate, and House — blends a forward-looking market signal (weighted 75%) with the current certified balance of power (25%).
The forward leg reads live from Kalshi control markets: which party wins the 2028 presidency, and which party controls the Senate and House after the 2026 midterms. The current leg is tempered by seat margin — holding a chamber counts fully, but a 53–47 split weighs a touch less than a landslide. Finally, the whole reading is nudged toward even by government dysfunction, read from Kalshi's shutdown-count market.
Inspired by Kalshi's American Power Index (KPOW). This is a transparent approximation built from live market prices — Kalshi's official index uses a proprietary blend, so the exact value differs.