American power index
Who has power now, and who markets expect will win next.
Narrow Republican edge
0.1 toward Democrats today
Now and markets
Control now
today
R +40.2
Markets
next elections
D +9.5
Index
final score
R +2.9
50 Deven50 R
Current control is 25% of the score. Markets are 75%.
Drivers
Presidency
R +1.8
to index
Markets · 202859% D
59%
41%
Holds it nowR
Senate
R +4.1
to index
Markets · 202656% R
44%
56%
Holds it now53R / 47D
House
D +2.9
to index
Markets · 202682% D
82%
18%
Holds it now218R / 212D / 1I
Seat counts
Margins
Senate margins
31 races tracked
1.0R
average
Expected size14.8 pts
House margins
289 races tracked
3.8D
average
Expected size15.7 pts
How it works
The scale runs from +50 D to 0 to +50 R. Zero means power is roughly even.
Each branch blends market odds for the next election (75%) with current control (25%). Congress also uses seat-count and margin markets. Shutdown risk pulls the score toward zero.
The strip under the dial shows the split: current control, market odds, and the final blend. The trend chart is rebuilt from daily snapshots.
Not Kalshi's official KPOW. This site uses public market prices, so the number can differ.