AI policy index
Races, bills, and policy signals leaning oversight or expansion on AI.
Oversight is slightly ahead
Blends candidate races with direct policy odds. 50% = even.
Races show likely lawmakers. Policy signals include markets and enacted laws. NO/status quo stays neutral.
11 of 12 policy markets are live. 3 enacted.
Head-to-head races
Races with candidates on both sides.
GA Governor
cross-partyMI Senate
cross-partyNC Senate
cross-partyNV Governor
cross-partyOH Governor
cross-partyKY Senate
cross-partyPA-8 House
cross-partyBills and policy
Policy odds and enacted signals that feed the index. YES moves markets; NO stays neutral.
California SB 53 requires large frontier AI developers to publish safety frameworks, creates critical-safety-incident reporting, and adds whistleblower protections.
Illinois Public Act 104-0538 requires large frontier AI developers to publish a safety framework, report critical safety incidents, disclose major ownership stakes, and undergo annual independent third-party audits.
New York requires large frontier AI developers to publish safety protocols, report critical safety incidents, and file ownership disclosures under a state oversight office.
A California AI anti-discrimination law counts as state-level AI oversight.
US government control of an AI company or project counts as a strong oversight signal.
Chip-security export controls count as an oversight signal.
AI-chip export licensing counts as a control-oriented AI policy signal.
Mandatory federal pre-release review of AI models counts as an oversight signal.
Federal likeness and deepfake protections count as AI oversight.
A bill protecting utility customers from data-center costs counts as oversight.
An AI professional-impersonation law counts as an oversight signal.
Comprehensive federal AI legislation becoming law counts as an oversight signal.
Rescinding or waiving a federal/DoD restriction on Anthropic models counts as AI expansion.
A federal self-driving framework counts as an AI expansion signal.
Decided races
Settled races drop out of the live index. Results stay here.
FL Governor Republican primary
Expansion winAugust 2026Byron Donalds won the Republican nomination
Donalds defeated tracked oversight candidates James Fishback, Jay Collins, and Paul Renner. His pro-expansion position advances to the general election and is now tracked through the party market. source
WI Governor Democratic primary
Oversight setbackAugust 2026David Crowley won the Democratic nomination
Crowley defeated tracked oversight candidates Francesca Hong and Kelda Roys after Sara Rodriguez withdrew. Crowley did not have a sourced AI-policy position in the curated roster, so the Democratic lane is no longer counted in the live index. source
MI Senate Democratic primary
Oversight winAugust 2026Abdul El-Sayed won the Democratic nomination
El-Sayed defeated fellow oversight-oriented candidate Mallory McMorrow; his data-center terms call for ratepayer, water, and community protections. He is now tracked through the general-election market. source
MI Senate Republican primary
Expansion winAugust 2026Mike Rogers won the Republican nomination
Rogers, who backs streamlined AI-infrastructure permitting and has an AI and cybersecurity venture background, advanced to the general election and is now tracked through the party market. source
NY-14 House
Oversight winJune 2026Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez renominated with 87%
The safe-blue primary all but decides the seat; the day after winning she introduced the House companion of the AI Data Center Moratorium Act (H.R. 9442). source
NY-15 House
Expansion winJune 2026Leading the Future endorsee Ritchie Torres renominated with 72%
The AI-expansion super PAC's endorsee won the safe-blue Bronx primary — with a late $300k boost from a crypto-industry PAC — effectively deciding the seat. source
NY-12 House
Oversight setbackJune 2026RAISE Act author Alex Bores lost the Democratic primary
Bores, a top target of AI-expansion super PACs over his frontier-model safety bill, finished second to Micah Lasher (AI stance untracked) in the safe-blue seat. source
ME Senate
Oversight winJune 2026Graham Platner won the Democratic nomination over Janet Mills
A same-party AI contrast, settled: Platner backs a federal moratorium on new AI data centers; Mills, as governor, vetoed the nation’s first state data-center moratorium. source
NV Governor
Oversight winJune 2026Aaron Ford won the Democratic nomination
Both tracked Democrats ran on data-center conditions; Ford’s energy plan makes data centers pay for their own power and grid upgrades. He faces data-center-friendly incumbent Joe Lombardo in November. source
ME Governor
Oversight winJune 2026Hannah Pingree won the Democratic nomination
Tracked oversight candidates Nirav Shah and Troy Jackson lost — but Pingree says she would have signed the data-center moratorium Mills vetoed, keeping the Democratic lane oversight-aligned. She is now tracked in the live index. source
Candidate races
Market chance the candidate wins.
How much the candidate counts. One race can count once.
69 races. 58.5 expected wins. 53% expansion, party-balanced.
Oversight
Stricter AI rules or data-center conditions.
Calls data centers 'one-way extraction centers'; pushes public works and tech training against AI automation — wants conditions, not a moratorium.
Lead sponsor of the House AI Data Center Moratorium Act (H.R. 9442, June 2026) — pauses large new AI data centers until federal AI rules exist.
Opposed the New Hill data center (developer withdrew March 2026) and demanded an investigation into the data-center boom and lack of guardrails.
Backed by Public First-aligned spending focused on AI rules; says AI needs relevant rules and data-center energy costs should not be passed to working people.
Introduced the Protecting Families from AI Data Center Energy Costs Act; reintroduced the AI Environmental Impacts Act with Markey (June 2026).
Pressed Senate colleagues to reject federal preemption of state AI regulation and preserve state-level AI rules.
Cosponsor of the House AI Data Center Moratorium Act (H.R. 9442) pausing new AI data-center construction.
Led the 99-1 Senate fight stripping the 10-year federal preemption of state AI laws; defends state AI and kids-safety laws.
Data Center Alley incumbent; supports a state data-center moratorium and filed H.R. 9372 on data-center energy standards.
Energy and Commerce ranking member who backed a nationwide data-center moratorium and supported ratepayer protections.
Expansion
Faster AI buildout or lighter rules.
Endorsed by AI-expansion super PAC Leading the Future, whose candidate slate backs a national AI framework for jobs, China competition, and safety.
'We want them': actively recruiting data centers to West Virginia, calling them key to winning 'the race to capitalize on AI.'
Opposed a federal AI data-center moratorium, arguing it would let China move quicker.
Secured a $20B Amazon AI build-out and rejects a moratorium; June 2026 GRID standards add bring-your-own-energy and ratepayer guardrails.
One of Leading the Future's first three Democratic endorsements, alongside Ritchie Torres.
Leading the Future endorsee; GOP nominee for the seat Markwayne Mullin vacated for DHS.
American Mission-backed nominee in a solid Republican seat; won the May 26 runoff 64-36 after heavy pro-Sell PAC spending.
AI-super-PAC-backed nominee who lists cutting regulations to support US AI leadership over China among her campaign priorities.
Leading the Future-backed with Trump's endorsement in the open seat Feenstra left to run for governor.
Leading the Future-endorsed; won the GOP primary with 60.5% for McConnell's open seat — the PAC backs a national light-touch AI framework.
How it works
What counts: a candidate or live policy market needs a Kalshi price and a clear AI-policy direction. Enacted policy can also count when no clean market exists.
Races: a candidate's win chance counts toward oversight or expansion. If several tracked candidates are in the same race, that race is capped at one seat.
Bills and policy: the index starts each live policy market at neutral. YES moves it toward its tagged side. NO or no action stays neutral; it does not become the other side. Enacted policy signals count as settled outcomes.
The dial: the headline is the oversight share after combining the live race weight and the policy-signal weight. 50% means even.
Limits: tags are manually sourced. This is a market basket, not a poll or a full vote forecast.
Win probabilities come from Kalshi.