AI index
How candidates who want to slow AI — opposing or conditioning AI data centers, or pushing to restrain AI development — are doing at the ballot box, read live from Kalshi prediction markets.
avg win probability
AI-skeptic candidates are broadly favored to win
Who's in the index
| Candidate | Race | Stance | Win | 24h | Cite |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Co-sponsor of the Artificial Intelligence Data Center Moratorium Act — pauses large new AI data centers until federal AI rules exist. | NY-14 House | Slow AI dev | 98% | +1.5 | source |
Eric Sorensen Wants data centers conditioned (no cost to residents, self-generated renewable power); co-sponsored the Energy Bills Relief Act. | IL-17 House | Curb data centers | 93% | +3.5 | source |
Emilia Sykes Calls for 'strong guardrails' on data centers, rejecting 'few safeguards, rapid expansion' with little thought for host communities. | OH-13 House | Curb data centers | 89% | +1.8 | source |
Don Beyer Introduced the Protecting Families from AI Data Center Energy Costs Act; a self-described "AI optimist" representing data-center alley. | VA-8 House | Curb data centers | 87% | — | source |
Roy Cooper Campaigns on data-center-driven electricity costs (bills up 22% since 2020); backs grid + ratepayer protections. | NC Senate | Curb data centers | 84% | — | source |
Frank Mrvan Pressed the Energy Secretary over a tariff making NW Indiana ratepayers subsidize generation kept online for data-center demand. | IN-1 House | Curb data centers | 83% | +1.0 | source |
Jon Ossoff Opened an inquiry into AI data centers' impact on Georgia power bills; says tech firms must 'pay their own way' so families aren't stuck with the costs. | GA Senate | Curb data centers | 81% | — | source |
Greg Landsman Co-authored the bill to protect residents from rising costs caused by AI data centers (FERC stakeholder conference). | OH-1 House | Curb data centers | 79% | +24.0 | source |
Denise Powell Campaign platform calls for 'more guardrails and regulation of artificial intelligence' to protect American jobs. | NE-2 House | Slow AI dev | 78% | — | source |
Katie Hobbs Reelection plan ends Arizona's data-center tax incentives and adds a per-gallon water fee so data centers 'pay their fair share.' | AZ Governor | Curb data centers | 76% | +1.5 | source |
Gabe Vasquez Urged Socorro County to approve a temporary data-center moratorium over quality-of-life and resource concerns. | NM-2 House | Curb data centers | 75% | +2.5 | source |
Ed Markey Pressed Senate colleagues to reject federal preemption of state AI regulation — pro-guardrails. | MA Senate | Slow AI dev | 68% | +0.9 | source |
Paige Cognetti Says data centers must use brownfield sites and 'under no circumstance' pass power or water costs onto working families. | PA-8 House | Curb data centers | 61% | +6.0 | source |
Marcy Kaptur As Energy & Water Approps ranking member, warns new AI/data facilities make energy and water prices 'skyrocket for local ratepayers.' | OH-9 House | Restrain AI | 52% | +6.0 | source |
Abdul El-Sayed Released data-center "terms of engagement" — no rate hikes, closed-loop cooling, binding community benefits, or stay out of Michigan. | MI Senate | Curb data centers | 45% | +4.0 | source |
Graham Platner Backs a federal moratorium on new AI data-center construction. | ME Senate | Curb data centers | 45% | -5.0 | source |
Troy Jackson Plan for AI safeguards — "data centers cannot leave working people behind." | ME Governor | Curb data centers | 40% | -6.2 | source |
Nirav Shah Unveiled a plan to establish AI / data-center safeguards for Maine. | ME Governor | Curb data centers | 39% | +10.6 | source |
Francesca Hong Opposes subsidies and handouts for large data-center corporations over clean-air/water concerns. | WI Governor | Curb data centers | 28% | -7.0 | source |
Jay Obernolte AI Task Force chair pushing a "light-touch" federal framework and federal preemption of state AI rules. | CA-23 House | Light-touch | 100% | +2.6 | source |
Mark Warner Called a federal AI data-center moratorium "idiocy" — "a moratorium simply means China is going to move quicker." | VA Senate | Light-touch | 96% | — | source |
Josh Shapiro Secured a $20B Amazon AI build-out; incentive program to attract data-center operators to Pennsylvania. | PA Governor | Pro build-out | 94% | +2.3 | source |
Vivek Ramaswamy "Step on the gas" — wants more AI data centers in Ohio plus faster permitting of new power generation. | OH Governor | Accelerate | 55% | +2.0 | source |
Laurie Buckhout Vows to 'slash the regulations strangling American innovation' so 'America will dominate AI, not China'; backed by a pro-AI super PAC. | NC-1 House | Accelerate | 48% | +4.0 | source |
Rob Bresnahan Welcomed data centers to NE Pennsylvania as economic 'catalysts' and celebrated a $25B regional energy/data-center investment. | PA-8 House | Pro build-out | 45% | +6.0 | source |
Janet Mills As governor, vetoed LD 307 — the nation's first state-level data-center moratorium. | ME Senate | Pro build-out | 6% | +2.6 | source |
Co-sponsor of the Artificial Intelligence Data Center Moratorium Act — pauses large new AI data centers until federal AI rules exist.
sourceWants data centers conditioned (no cost to residents, self-generated renewable power); co-sponsored the Energy Bills Relief Act.
sourceCalls for 'strong guardrails' on data centers, rejecting 'few safeguards, rapid expansion' with little thought for host communities.
sourceIntroduced the Protecting Families from AI Data Center Energy Costs Act; a self-described "AI optimist" representing data-center alley.
sourceCampaigns on data-center-driven electricity costs (bills up 22% since 2020); backs grid + ratepayer protections.
sourcePressed the Energy Secretary over a tariff making NW Indiana ratepayers subsidize generation kept online for data-center demand.
sourceOpened an inquiry into AI data centers' impact on Georgia power bills; says tech firms must 'pay their own way' so families aren't stuck with the costs.
sourceCo-authored the bill to protect residents from rising costs caused by AI data centers (FERC stakeholder conference).
sourceCampaign platform calls for 'more guardrails and regulation of artificial intelligence' to protect American jobs.
sourceReelection plan ends Arizona's data-center tax incentives and adds a per-gallon water fee so data centers 'pay their fair share.'
sourceUrged Socorro County to approve a temporary data-center moratorium over quality-of-life and resource concerns.
sourcePressed Senate colleagues to reject federal preemption of state AI regulation — pro-guardrails.
sourceSays data centers must use brownfield sites and 'under no circumstance' pass power or water costs onto working families.
sourceAs Energy & Water Approps ranking member, warns new AI/data facilities make energy and water prices 'skyrocket for local ratepayers.'
sourceReleased data-center "terms of engagement" — no rate hikes, closed-loop cooling, binding community benefits, or stay out of Michigan.
sourceBacks a federal moratorium on new AI data-center construction.
sourcePlan for AI safeguards — "data centers cannot leave working people behind."
sourceUnveiled a plan to establish AI / data-center safeguards for Maine.
sourceOpposes subsidies and handouts for large data-center corporations over clean-air/water concerns.
sourceAI Task Force chair pushing a "light-touch" federal framework and federal preemption of state AI rules.
sourceCalled a federal AI data-center moratorium "idiocy" — "a moratorium simply means China is going to move quicker."
sourceSecured a $20B Amazon AI build-out; incentive program to attract data-center operators to Pennsylvania.
source"Step on the gas" — wants more AI data centers in Ohio plus faster permitting of new power generation.
sourceVows to 'slash the regulations strangling American innovation' so 'America will dominate AI, not China'; backed by a pro-AI super PAC.
sourceWelcomed data centers to NE Pennsylvania as economic 'catalysts' and celebrated a $25B regional energy/data-center investment.
sourceAs governor, vetoed LD 307 — the nation's first state-level data-center moratorium.
sourceHow it's calculated
The headline is the average win probability across a curated set of 2026-cycle candidates who have taken a public position to slow AI — opposing or conditioning AI data centers, or backing limits on AI development. Each candidate's win probability is read live from Kalshi: a direct “wins the seat” market where one exists, otherwise their nomination odds multiplied by their party's odds of winning the seat.
Stances are hand-curated and sourced (tap “source” on any row) with a verification date — they are not inferred from market prices. Only races Kalshi prices can appear, so this is a federal + gubernatorial roster, not local siting fights.
Caveats worth knowing: the tracked cohort is small and currently skews Democratic — most of the loudest 2026-ballot AI skeptics happen to be Democrats (many federal skeptics like Sanders and Hawley aren't up this cycle). The average also blends safe seats with toss-ups, so the “contested-race avg” above isolates the races actually in play. Win probabilities come from Kalshi.