U.S. Midterms 2026

Select a state or district to explore.

DemTossupRepNo market

Democrats85%
Republicans15%

Explore races

Choose a state to explore its races.

Seat breakdown
229Dem
7 tossup
435 districts· 218 to control
Rep199
202
15
12
7
15
27
157

Odds breakdown — scroll for more →

highlighted = projected flip

Safe D (194)
CA-26
5
CA-22
90-10
NH-01
90-9
CA-45
91-9
NM-02
91-9
MD-06
93-10
CA-01
92-8
MI-08
93-9
MN-02
94-10
NE-02
94-9
RI-02
93-8
VA-07
90-5
MI-03
94-8
NY-05
93-7
NV-04
90-5
NY-03
92-6
CA-21
94-8
NH-02
95-9
NY-04
92-5
CA-27
94-7
AZ-04
95-9
MD-05
92-5
OR-01
91-4
NV-01
93-6
NY-18
95-8
CA-39
92-5
PA-12
96-8
PA-17
92-4
NJ-09
94-6
GA-02
92-4
IL-01
94-5
CA-46
98-9
SC-06
93-4
WA-08
94-6
NJ-05
94-5
IL-09
95-6
CA-13
94-5
CO-02
97-8
KS-03
98-9
TX-29
95-6
NY-06
94-5
NY-14
98-8
NJ-12
96-6
OH-13
95-5
NV-03
95-5
NM-03
95-5
CA-33
94-4
FL-20
97-7
NY-22
95-5
NC-12
95-5
CA-09
92-2
MO-05
95-4
NY-19
96-6
ME-01
94-3
TX-37
92-1
IL-13
98-7
NY-08
95-4
NY-25
96-5
OR-05
96-4
CA-18
95-4
PA-04
94-3
VT-01
95-3
CA-47
94-3
CA-50
95-3
FL-10
94-2
MD-04
92-0
CA-03
96-4
CA-36
93-1
WA-09
97-5
CA-43
98-6
FL-23
96-4
NY-09
95-3
NY-15
95-3
GA-05
96-4
IL-11
93-1
WI-04
98-6
MN-05
97-4
CA-30
98-6
IL-17
95-2
CT-02
96-4
IL-03
98-5
VA-08
95-2
VA-04
96-3
HI-02
97-5
NY-07
98-5
VA-10
97-4
CA-15
98-5
IN-01
95-2
MS-02
95-2
GA-04
98-5
NM-01
95-2
AZ-07
100-7
CA-06
94-1
MD-03
98-5
TX-07
96-3
NY-13
98-5
NY-26
98-5
CA-31
96-3
IL-02
97-4
MA-04
98-4
IN-07
98-4
MI-11
97-3
CA-10
96-2
IL-05
97-3
TX-20
98-4
MA-09
98-4
MD-02
98-4
NJ-11
94-0
IL-06
99-5
CA-49
96-2
CT-05
95-1
HI-01
97-3
MI-06
98-4
MN-04
96-2
NY-10
99-5
PA-06
99-5
CA-35
98-3
IL-10
97-3
MD-07
100-6
WA-06
98-4
CA-42
98-4
GA-13
98-4
NJ-06
97-2
CA-41
97-2
CA-51
98-3
DE-01
95-0
NY-12
99-4
CA-32
97-3
NC-02
97-2
CA-17
99-4
CT-03
96-2
AL-07
98-4
IL-04
97-2
NY-16
98-3
MA-08
100-5
CO-01
98-3
OH-03
99-4
OR-04
97-2
WI-02
95-0
CT-01
98-3
NJ-01
98-3
OR-06
97-2
CO-06
97-1
NJ-03
98-3
NJ-08
96-1
CA-28
97-1
FL-24
97-1
MO-01
99-4
WA-07
98-2
MA-01
98-2
NJ-10
100-4
NC-04
100-4
CO-07
97-1
CT-04
99-4
UT-01
98-2
CA-08
98-2
CA-38
98-2
KY-03
98-2
NY-20
98-2
CA-25
98-2
IL-14
98-2
CA-44
97-1
TX-16
98-1
MA-05
97-0
CA-24
98-1
RI-01
99-3
WA-01
99-2
PA-02
100-3
TX-30
98-2
OR-03
100-3
IL-07
98-0
PA-05
99-1
MA-02
98-0
GA-06
98-0
MA-03
98-0
PA-03
99-1
MN-03
99-1
LA-02
99-1
WA-10
99-1
WA-02
99-1
CA-16
100-2
VA-11
99-0
CA-19
100-1
MA-07
99-0
MI-13
99-0
TX-33
99-0
CA-02
99-0
MA-06
100-1
VA-03
100-0
AZ-03
100-1
MD-08
100-0
TX-18
100-0
MI-12
100-0
OH-11
100-0
Explore Congress ↗
Rating guide
Safe D (90%+)Likely D (75–89%)Lean D (60–74%)Tossup (<60%)Lean R (60–74%)Likely R (75–89%)Safe R (90%+)No market / no race this cycle

Held seats and districts without a general-election market are identified in the seat breakdown and race details.

How to read the election odds

How to read the live election odds

A 62% price means traders collectively value that outcome at a 62% implied probability. Prices can move with polling, endorsements, fundraising, candidate news, and new trading activity.

Election odds FAQ

What are the current 2026 midterm election odds?

ElectionOdds shows live Kalshi odds for 2026 Senate, House, and governor races. Use the map for state races or the Congress page for seat and chamber-control projections.

Who is favored to win the 2028 presidential election?

The 2028 presidential field changes with trading on Kalshi. The presidential page shows the current leader, candidate win probabilities, party nomination odds, 24-hour moves, and price history.

How are the election odds calculated?

Each probability is the latest traded price on a Kalshi market. A contract at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the market data and does not create its own polling model.

Which party will control Congress after the 2026 midterms?

The Congress page combines Kalshi Senate and House control markets with state and district race prices. It shows current seat projections and the market-implied chance that each party controls a chamber.

Are election prediction markets the same as sportsbooks?

No. Prediction markets trade event contracts on regulated exchanges such as Kalshi. ElectionOdds is an independent data display; any trading takes place on Kalshi.

How often do the live election odds update?

Prices refresh throughout the day. Market moves, maps, seat projections, and candidate boards use current market data, while historical charts use periodic snapshots.

Market moves Past 24 hours