2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
Trade ↗Democrats, ≥2% is favored at 98% as of 2 Nov 2026, 23:01 UTC across 12 markets.
- Democrats, ≥2%: 98% (24h change 0%)
- Democrats, ≥4%: 95% (24h change 0%)
- Democrats, ≥6%: 90% (24h change 0%)
- Democrats, ≥7%: 83% (24h change 0%)
- Democrats, ≥8%: 75% (24h change 0%)
- Democrats, ≥9%: 69% (24h change 0%)
- Democrats, ≥10%: 53% (24h change 0%)
- Democrats, ≥11%: 36% (24h change 0%)
- Democrats, ≥12%: 32% (24h change 0%)
- Democrats, ≥14%: 13% (24h change 0%)
- Democrats, ≥13%: 13% (24h change 0%)
- Democrats, ≥16%: 6% (24h change 0%)
All options
About this market
Market question: 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
How to read these odds
Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.
Market odds FAQ
Who is favored in 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)?
Democrats, ≥2% is favored at 98% as of 2 Nov 2026, 23:01 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.
What are the current odds for 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)?
Democrats, ≥2%: 98%; Democrats, ≥4%: 95%; Democrats, ≥6%: 90%; Democrats, ≥7%: 83%; Democrats, ≥8%: 75%; Democrats, ≥9%: 69%. These are live market prices.
Where do these odds come from?
Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.