Election Odds Powered by Kalshi
Powered by KalshiDNC Cash on Hand (End of Q2)·Above 16 million·64%(+45%)Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?·Abdul El-Sayed, 12-15%·9%(-41%)FL-20 Democratic nominee?·Luther Campbell·42%(+38%)Georgia Senate margin of victory·Democrats, 10+ pts·37%(+34%)Will Trump's approval rating increase this week? (7/3-7/10)?·Above 40.2%·51%(-29%)Will Graham Platner drop out?·Before Jul 14, 2026·30%(+28%)MI-07 Democratic nominee?·William Lawrence·49%(+24%)AL-01 Republican nominee?·Jerry Carl·94%(+22%)FL-11 Republican nominee?·Tim Wilkins·39%(+22%)Who will AOC endorse?·Graham Platner·7%(-20%)How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (7/5 - 7/11)·Above 0·39%(-19%)Vermont Democratic Governor nominee?·Amanda Janoo·34%(-19%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (6/29 - 7/5)·Above 200·28%(-18%)When will a Trump passport be issued?·Before Aug 1, 2026·75%(-18%)When will Todd Blanche be confirmed?·Before Jan 1, 2027·73%(-17%)
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Live summary

7 or more is favored at 82% as of 6 Jul 2026, 18:33 UTC across 4 markets. Live odds from Kalshi.

  • 7 or more: 82% (24h change +5%)
  • 6: 8.3% (24h change -5.7%)
  • 5: 2.8% (24h change -8.2%)
  • 4: 0.4% (24h change -0.5%)
other4 marketsLIVE

How many House Democrats will lose their primary in 2026?

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Odds history

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7 or more

82%
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6

8.3%
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5

2.8%
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4

0.4%
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