Election Odds Powered by Kalshi
Powered by KalshiDNC Cash on Hand (End of Q2)·Above 16 million·64%(+45%)Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?·Abdul El-Sayed, 12-15%·9%(-41%)FL-20 Democratic nominee?·Luther Campbell·42%(+38%)Georgia Senate margin of victory·Democrats, 10+ pts·37%(+34%)Will Trump's approval rating increase this week? (7/3-7/10)?·Above 40.2%·51%(-29%)Will Graham Platner drop out?·Before Jul 14, 2026·30%(+28%)MI-07 Democratic nominee?·William Lawrence·49%(+24%)AL-01 Republican nominee?·Jerry Carl·94%(+22%)FL-11 Republican nominee?·Tim Wilkins·39%(+22%)Who will AOC endorse?·Graham Platner·7%(-20%)How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (7/5 - 7/11)·Above 0·39%(-19%)Vermont Democratic Governor nominee?·Amanda Janoo·34%(-19%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (6/29 - 7/5)·Above 200·28%(-18%)When will a Trump passport be issued?·Before Aug 1, 2026·75%(-18%)When will Todd Blanche be confirmed?·Before Jan 1, 2027·73%(-17%)
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Live summary

3 is favored at 42% as of 6 Jul 2026, 19:03 UTC across 5 markets. Live odds from Kalshi.

  • 3: 42% (24h change +10%)
  • 4: 40% (24h change 0%)
  • 6: 8.4% (24h change 0%)
  • 5: 8% (24h change -5%)
  • 7 or more: 2.6% (24h change -4.7%)
other5 marketsLIVE

How many House Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?

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Odds history

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3

42%
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4

40%
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6

8.4%
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5

8%
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7 or more

2.6%
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