Mike Thompson, 5+ pts is favored at 66% as of 24 Oct 2026, 19:06 UTC across 2 markets.
- Mike Thompson, 5+ pts: 66% (24h change +9%)
- Mike Thompson, 10+ pts: 41% (24h change 0%)
California's 4th District margin of victory
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About this market
Market question: California's 4th District margin of victory
How to read these odds
Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.
Market odds FAQ
Who is favored in California's 4th District margin of victory?
Mike Thompson, 5+ pts is favored at 66% as of 24 Oct 2026, 19:06 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.
What are the current odds for California's 4th District margin of victory?
Mike Thompson, 5+ pts: 66%; Mike Thompson, 10+ pts: 41%. These are live market prices.
Where do these odds come from?
Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.