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Powered by KalshiAlaska House winner?·Bill Hill·10%(-84%)Florida Senate margin of victory·Republicans, 10+ pts·92.4%(+81.4%)Will Trump’s election order lead to large-scale ballot blocking?·Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the U.S. Postal Service blocks at least 10,000 distinct mail-in or absentee ballots for the November 3, 2026 federal general election pursuant to Executive Order 14399 or a materially equivalent amendment, replacement, or successor measure before Nov 11, 2026?·13%(-72%)FL-20 Republican nominee?·Rod Joseph·21%(-57%)Which ballot measures will pass in Colorado?·Initiative #110·16%(-49%)FL-06 Republican primary: Dan Bilzerian vote percent·At least 7.5%·32%(-48%)Who will Trump pardon?·Jared Kushner·7.5%(-41.5%)How many House Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?·5·81%(+41%)FL-22 Republican primary: David Burck vote percent·At least 15%·12%(-38%)FL-06 Republican primary: Randy Fine vote percent·At least 80%·64%(+37%)FL-22 Republican primary: Michael Carbonara vote percent·At least 30%·74%(+35%)Number of White House Press Briefings in Aug 2026?·At least 2·24%(-32%)New Mexico Senate margin of victory·Democrats, 15+ pts·67%(+30%)PA-08 House winner?·Paige Cognetti·89%(+29%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/17 - 8/23)·Above 25·37%(-29%)
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Summary

Paul Renner is favored at 75% as of 17 Aug 2026, 07:32 UTC across 6 markets. Kalshi odds.

  • Paul Renner: 75% (24h change -4%)
  • James Fishback: 14% (24h change -3%)
  • Bobby Williams: 6% (24h change 0%)
  • Rachel Rodriguez: 4% (24h change 0%)
  • Jay Collins: 2% (24h change -12%)
  • Byron Donalds: 1% (24h change 0%)
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Florida Republican Governor primary: 4th place

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