ElectionOddsPowered by Kalshi
Powered by KalshiMO-08 Democratic nominee?·Frank A Barnitz·1%(-88%)MO-01 Democratic primary margin of victory?·Wesley Bell, ≥15%·88%(+80%)MO-04 Democratic nominee?·Jordan Herrera·87%(+77%)KS-01 Democratic nominee?·Colin McRoberts·1%(-70%)MI-13 Democratic primary margin of victory?·Donavan McKinney, ≥15%·84%(+63%)WA-09 primary: who will advance?·Douglas Michael Basler·21%(-59%)Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (July 2026)·At least 80·58%(+57%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/3 - 8/9)·Above 60·14%(-55%)Malaysian general election winner?·BN-anchored coalition·41%(-53.2%)Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?·Abdul El-Sayed, ≥15%·1%(-51%)TN-06 Democratic nominee?·Lore Bergman·7%(-49%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/20 - 7/26)·Above 50·47%(-48%)Minas Gerais Governor winner?·Mateus Simões·61%(+48%)MO-01 Republican nominee?·Paul Berry III·60%(+48%)Trump late night post this week? (8/2-8/8)·3-4 AM·17%(-48%)
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Summary

At least 37% is favored at 95% as of 5 Aug 2026, 02:04 UTC across 19 markets. Kalshi odds.

  • At least 37%: 95% (24h change 0%)
  • At least 38%: 74% (24h change 0%)
  • At least 39%: 60% (24h change 0%)
  • At least 41%: 33% (24h change 0%)
  • At least 40%: 32% (24h change 0%)
  • At least 43%: 10% (24h change 0%)
  • At least 42%: 9% (24h change 0%)
  • At least 44%: 6% (24h change 0%)
  • At least 47%: 6% (24h change 0%)
  • At least 48%: 4% (24h change 0%)
  • At least 45%: 3% (24h change 0%)
  • At least 49%: 2% (24h change 0%)
  • At least 50%: 2% (24h change 0%)
  • At least 51%: 2% (24h change 0%)
  • At least 54%: 2% (24h change 0%)
  • At least 52%: 2% (24h change 0%)
  • At least 53%: 2% (24h change 0%)
  • At least 55%: 1% (24h change 0%)
  • At least 46%: 1% (24h change 0%)
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MO-01 Democratic primary: Cori Bush vote percent

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