ElectionOddsPowered by Kalshi
Powered by KalshiWho will be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer?·John Healey·99%(+98%)São Toméan presidential election winner?·Miques João Bonfim·1%(-89%)Will Trump do anything this week? (7/19-7/25)·At least 8·99%(+87%)Will Mamdani sign an executive order this week? (7/19 - 7/25)·Above 0·99%(+84%)Who will serve in Burnham’s Cabinet in Jul 2026?·Rachel Reeves·3%(-66%)Who will be the next UK Foreign Secretary in 2026?·No new person·1%(-65%)Texas's 15th District margin of victory·Democrats, 2+ pts·38%(-59.4%)Who will run for South Carolina Senate?·Nancy Mace·2%(-54%)Clacton by-election margin of victory?·Reform UK, ≥55%·51%(+44%)Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?·Alina Habba·19%(-41%)Texas's 23rd District margin of victory·Republicans, 17+ pts·53%(+40%)How many states will Trump visit in Jul 2026?·8·14%(-40%)Ottawa mayoral election winner?·Mark Sutcliffe·38%(-37%)Keiko Fujimori out as President of Peru?·Before Jan 1, 2027·37%(+36%)Next French presidential election winner?·Édouard Philippe·24%(-34%)
Back
Summary

Michael Baumgartner is favored at 97% as of 21 Jul 2026, 06:35 UTC across 12 markets. Kalshi odds.

  • Michael Baumgartner: 97% (24h change -2%)
  • Carmela Conroy: 93% (24h change 0%)
  • Nate Powell: 12% (24h change +2%)
  • Kevin Fagan: 8% (24h change 0%)
  • Michael McGarr: 5% (24h change 0%)
  • David Womack: 3% (24h change 0%)
  • Bajun Mavalwalla: 2% (24h change -7%)
  • Matthew Hayes: 1% (24h change 0%)
  • Kyle Ursey: 1% (24h change 0%)
  • Andrew Bartleson: 1% (24h change 0%)
  • Richard Freudenberg: 1% (24h change 0%)
  • Anthony Jensen: 1% (24h change 0%)
house12 marketsLIVE

WA-05 primary: who will advance?

Trade ↗