When will a catastrophic AI duty of care become U.S. law?
Trade ↗Before Jan 1, 2028 is favored at 49% as of 26 Oct 2026, 04:41 UTC across 3 markets.
- Before Jan 1, 2028: 49% (24h change 0%)
- Before Jul 1, 2027: 30% (24h change 0%)
- Before Jan 1, 2027: 12% (24h change 0%)
All options
About this market
Market question: When will a catastrophic AI duty of care become U.S. law?
How to read these odds
Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.
Market odds FAQ
Who is favored in When will a catastrophic AI duty of care become U.S. law?
Before Jan 1, 2028 is favored at 49% as of 26 Oct 2026, 04:41 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.
What are the current odds for When will a catastrophic AI duty of care become U.S. law?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 49%; Before Jul 1, 2027: 30%; Before Jan 1, 2027: 12%. These are live market prices.
Where do these odds come from?
Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.