Other policy markets

Will proof of citizenship be required for federal voter registration?

4 options · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027

15%

Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?

4 options · Leader: Before 2027

▼ -0.5%

Will Mamdani sign an executive order this week? (5/17 - 5/23)

1 option · Leader: Above 0

▼ -5%

17%

Who will win the 2026 DC Democratic Mayoral Primary?

13 options · Leader: Janeese Lewis George

▼ -3%

53%

Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

1 option · Leader: In 2026

Will the DNC release the 2024 autopsy report?

3 options · Leader: Before Nov 3, 2026

▲ +7%

51%

Who will be arrested before 2027?

19 options · Leader: John Brennan

▲ +7%

Will the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed?

2 options · Leader: Before 2027

23%

How much will the US acquire Greenland for?

8 options · Leader: $0 / No Acquisition

81%

Will legislation restricting institutional single-family home investment become law in 2026?

1 option · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027

▼ -10%

79%

Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?

5 options · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2030

50%

Indiana Republican Secretary of State nominee?

3 options · Leader: Diego Morales

▼ -29.9%

15%

Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before 2027?

1 option · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027

▼ -8%

19%

Confirmed Hondius hantavirus cases before June 2026?

3 options · Leader: 15 or more

▼ -21%

Will the SEC eliminate the quarterly reporting requirement?

3 options · Leader: Before Apr 1, 2027

46%

What will the US tariff rate on China be on July 1?

7 options · Leader: Between 10% and 19.99%

66%

Will Trump recognize Taiwan?

2 options · Leader: Before Jan 20, 2029

▲ +4.8%

Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?

18 options · Leader: Donald Trump

▲ +33%

78%

US credit rating downgrade in 2026?

1 option · Leader: Rating reduced

28%

How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (5/3 - 5/9)

3 options · Leader: Above 0

When will a Trump passport be issued?

5 options · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027

▲ +7%

Will Trump embargo a new country?

2 options · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027

▲ +4.9%

25%

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?

2 options · Leader: Before Jan 20, 2029

▲ +5%

Which bills will become law in 2026?

23 options · Leader: Housing for the 21st Century Act

▼ -9%

88%

Will the federal gas tax be suspended?

2 options · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027

32%

What will the US tariff rate on India be on July 1?

7 options · Leader: Between 10% and 19.99%

▲ +3%

74%

Will DC come under federal control in 2026?

1 option · Leader: A bill ending self rule in Washington DC

Will the Citrini scenario happen?

1 option · Leader: Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2?

26%

Will the US ban CBDC in 2026?

1 option · Leader: Will legislation prohibiting the Federal Reserve from studying, developing, or issuing a central bank digital currency become law before Jan 1, 2027?

▲ +8%

76%

How much government spending will Trump cut before 2027?

6 options · Leader: At least 250 billion

▼ -0.6%

5.4%

Will credit card rates be capped in 2026?

1 option · Leader: Before 2027

▲ +0.9%

When will Kari Lake be confirmed as Ambassador to Jamaica?

3 options · Leader: Before Apr 1, 2027

▼ -23%

Will the President order the release of UFO files?

3 options · Leader: Before Aug 1, 2026

▲ +6%

31%

FY2026 Commerce Department gifts and bequests (including Gold Card receipts)

7 options · Leader: Above $1M

▼ -16%

88%

Georgia: Which elections will be won outright?

6 options · Leader: Commissioner of Labor

86%

NYC population change in Mamdani's first 18 months?

8 options · Leader: Decrease 0-0.99%

42%

US test scores in Math in 2026?

3 options · Leader: Significant decrease

▲ +2.2%

69%

Will the US acquire any new territory?

4 options · Leader: Before Jan 21, 2029

Will Trump add a 51st state to the US?

1 option · Leader: Before 2029

6.1%

Georgia Republican Secretary of State nominee?

2 options · Leader: Tim Fleming

▲ +10%

84%

Jessica Tisch out as NYPD commissioner before 2027?

1 option · Leader: Will Jessica Tisch leave NYPD Commissioner before Jan 1, 2027?

65%

Will the federal government start mining Bitcoin?

1 option · Leader: Before 2027

▼ -3.2%

4.8%

Will any CA state executives be federally charged with fraud?

2 options · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027

27%

Texas Attorney General winner?

2 options · Leader: Republican party

Will the DOJ claim a Biden pardon is void in court?

1 option · Leader: Before 2027

How many government shutdowns in 2026?

4 options · Leader: 2

60%

Will the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030?

1 option · Leader: Before 2030

Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran?

2 options · Leader: Before 2027

Will Mamdani establish universal child care before 2027?

1 option · Leader: Will Mamdani establish universal child care before 2027?

19%

Will anyone face federal charges tied to Fulton County’s 2020 election?

2 options · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027

Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas in 2026? (Blexas)

1 option · Leader: Will the number of Democrats who win a statewide election in Texas in 2026 be above 0?

48%

Texas Democratic Attorney General nominee?

2 options · Leader: Nathan Johnson

▲ +0.3%

95.5%

Will Mamdani raise corporate taxes before 2027?

1 option · Leader: Will Mamdani raise corporate taxes before 2027?

Who will win the Attorney General race in Iowa?

2 options · Leader: Democratic party

62%

Who will the FTC go after next?

5 options · Leader: Microsoft

▼ -0.7%

Will Trump end income tax for people earning under $150k?

2 options · Leader: Before 2027

6.9%

Will the US ban crude oil exports?

2 options · Leader: Before 2027

Will AI regulation become law in 2026?

1 option · Leader: By Jan 1, 2027

25%

Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended?

1 option · Leader: Before 2027

8.2%

Will Trump cut corporate taxes this year?

1 option · Leader: Will the corporate tax be decreased before Jan 1, 2027?

7.1%

Courts consider Amazon a monopoly?

1 option · Leader: Government wins

Will the US Treasury have any transactions on the blockchain?

1 option · Leader: Before 2027

13%

Will Trump impose capital controls?

1 option · Leader: Before 2029

17%

Will Mamdani raise property taxes?

1 option · Leader: Will legislation increasing New York City's property tax rate become law in New York City before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Trump create a $250 bill featuring himself?

1 option · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027

▲ +0.3%

9.4%

Will Trump recognize Somaliland?

2 options · Leader: Before Jan 20, 2029

60%

Who will Donald Trump talk to in May 2026?

1 option · Leader: Ken Paxton

▼ -10%

84%

Will the DOJ release the Biden ghostwriter tapes?

2 options · Leader: Before Oct 1, 2026

47%

Oklahoma Republican Attorney General nominee?

2 options · Leader: Jon Echols

74%

Will ICE change its name in 2026?

1 option · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027

▼ -9%

20%

Will Trump eliminate capital gains taxes on crypto?

1 option · Leader: Before 2027

Which tariffs will the House vote to eliminate before July?

3 options · Leader: Brazil

US test scores in Reading in 2026?

3 options · Leader: Significant decrease

68%

Will Trump expand the H1-B program?

1 option · Leader: Before 2029

20%

When will a farm bill become law?

5 options · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027

▼ -4%

81%

Ohio Attorney General winner?

2 options · Leader: Republican party

74%

Will Trump make a new free trade agreement with China?

1 option · Leader: Before 2029

35%

Will the California billionaire wealth tax appear on the ballot?

1 option · Leader: Will a one-time tax on billionaires be held in California before Nov 3, 2026?

90%

Will NYC buses become free before 2027?

1 option · Leader: In 2026

Will Trump punish SpaceX?

1 option · Leader: Before Jul 2026

▼ -0.2%

Will Trump suspend habeas corpus?

1 option · Leader: Before Trump's term ends

19%

Will mail-order mifepristone access be restricted nationwide?

3 options · Leader: Before 2027

Will any court rule that the 2024 election was fraudulent?

1 option · Leader: Before 2027

3.7%

Which abortion-related measures will pass in 2026?

3 options · Leader: Nevada Question 6

▲ +0.6%

91.2%

Chicago mayoral election winner? (2027)

7 options · Leader: Alexi Giannoulias

▲ +0.8%

49%

How many federal judges will be confirmed in May 2026?

1 option · Leader: At least 2

94%

What will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration?

10 options · Leader: World Trade Organization

Will California’s billionaire tax take effect?

1 option · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027

21%

How many bills with Trump veto in 2026?

5 options · Leader: At least 1

79%

Which vaccines will the CDC no longer recommend in 2026?

6 options · Leader: COVID-19

27%

Will Trump try to leave the USMCA?

2 options · Leader: Before 2027

▼ -0.2%

Will the U.S. sovereign wealth fund be operational before 2027?

1 option · Leader: Before 2027

17%

Will the US Mint finalize a design for the Trump dollar before 2027?

1 option · Leader: In 2026

57%

Which countries will have their US Travel Advisory downgraded in 2026?

16 options · Leader: Ukraine

▼ -4%

8.4%

Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?

4 options · Leader: Wind turbines

▼ -4%

40%

What will the US tariff rate on the EU be on July 1?

7 options · Leader: Between 10% and 19.99%

78%

What will the US tariff rate on Canada be on July 1?

7 options · Leader: Between 10% and 19.99%

62%

Will new tariffs become law?

2 options · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027

5.9%

Will Trump invoke the Taft-Hartley Act during his presidency?

1 option · Leader: Before Jan 20, 2029

31%

Will the US reopen its embassy in Syria?

1 option · Leader: Before 2027

45%

How many border encounters in May 2026?

7 options · Leader: 12,500 to 12,999

▲ +3%

24%

Will the ban on supersonic flight over land end before 2028?

1 option · Leader: Before 2028

43%

Will the House vote to ban members of Congress from trading stocks?

1 option · Leader: Before July 2026

Which state laws will be enacted in 2026?

7 options · Leader: Medical Cannabis Expansion

77%

Oklahoma SQ 832 Minimum Wage Initiative

1 option · Leader: Who will win Oklahoma State Question 832, the $15 Minimum Wage Initiative?

61%

US bans social media for children in 2026?

1 option · Leader: US bans social media for children before 2027?

2.8%

Will Trump restrict SNAP benefits?

1 option · Leader: Before Jan 4, 2027

Wisconsin Secretary of State winner?

2 options · Leader: Democratic party

67%

Nevada Secretary of State winner?

2 options · Leader: Democratic party

77%

Indiana Secretary of State winner?

2 options · Leader: Democratic party

Arizona Secretary of State winner?

2 options · Leader: Democratic party

Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?

1 option · Leader: Before 2027

▼ -1.1%

9.9%

Will cannabis banking insurance protections become law in 2026?

1 option · Leader: Will becomes law before Jan 1, 2027?

Who will run for public office in 2026?

1 option · Leader: Glenn Youngkin

Will Ghislaine Maxwell be released from government custody?

1 option · Leader: Before 2027

Will permitting reform become law in 2026?

1 option · Leader: Before 2027

38%

Will a bill curbing pharmaceutical monopolies become law?

1 option · Leader: Before Jan 4, 2027

▼ -0.2%

6.3%

Will New York tax QSBS gains?

1 option · Leader: Will legislation that decouples New York tax law from the federal Qualified Small Business Stock (QSBS) gain exclusion under IRC §1202 become law in New York before Jan 1, 2027?

Will Mamdani tax incomes over $1M before 2027?

1 option · Leader: Will Mamdani tax incomes over $1M before 2027?

Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027?

1 option · Leader: Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027?

Will Mamdani establish a Department of Community Safety before 2027?

1 option · Leader: Will Mamdani establish a Department of Community Safety before 2027?

Will an AI professional-impersonation bill become law in New York?

1 option · Leader: Will legislation that imposes liability for damages caused by a chatbot impersonating certain licensed professionals become law in New York before Jan 1, 2027?

41%

Will the nickel be discontinued?

1 option · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027

Which cities will the National Guard deploy to in 2026?

5 options · Leader: Detroit

▼ -9%

28%

Will Trump announce a new trade deal in May 2026?

1 option · Leader: Before Jun 1, 2026

Will Trump approve a new city on federal land?

1 option · Leader: Before 2029

36%

North Carolina Supreme Court winner?

2 options · Leader: Anita Earls

64%

Will Trump declare a national emergency?

2 options · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027

28%

Will Trump add himself to Mt. Rushmore?

1 option · Leader: Before 2029

Who will switch or leave their party in 2026?

6 options · Leader: John Fetterman

15%

Will Trump impose martial law before his term ends?

1 option · Leader: Before Jan 20, 2029

30%

Will the Treasury grant retroactive cannabis tax relief?

1 option · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027

67%

Will the Massachusetts rent control initiative pass?

1 option · Leader: In 2026

54%

Frank Bradley out as USSOCOM Commander?

2 options · Leader: Before July 1, 2026

▼ -0.3%

3.1%

Will the Kids Online Safety Act become law?

1 option · Leader: Before 2027

14%

Will the Jones Act be repealed?

1 option · Leader: Before Jan 4, 2027

Will Trump be held liable for January 6th in any court?

1 option · Leader: Before his term ends

30%

Which ICE reforms will become law in 2026?

6 options · Leader: Visible identification

Who will be the next head of ICE?

11 options · Leader: David Venturella

92.5%

How much government spending will Trump cut before his term ends?

5 options · Leader: At least 250 billion

▲ +0.6%

8.1%

Georgia Democratic Secretary of State nominee?

4 options · Leader: Penny Brown Reynolds

▲ +43%

72%

Will Georgia officially switch to permanent daylight saving time?

1 option · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2028

9.1%

Will Trump make a new free trade agreement?

1 option · Leader: Before 2029

48%

Jacob Frey out as Mayor of Minneapolis?

1 option · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027

3.1%

How long will the next FISA authorization be?

5 options · Leader: At least 30 days

78%

When will FISA be reauthorized again?

7 options · Leader: Before Jul 1, 2026

94%

Will the travel ban end for any countries participating in the World Cup?

1 option · Leader: Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on revoking, terminating, or rescinding the suspension of entry for nationals of Haiti, Iran, Côte d'Ivoire, or Senegal before the World Cup?

7.3%

Will Republicans hold a midterm convention?

1 option · Leader: Before Nov 3, 2026

86%

Will Democrats hold a midterm convention?

1 option · Leader: Before Nov 3, 2026

Who will Trump nominate as FDA commissioner?

7 options · Leader: Kyle Diamantas

Will E-Verify be expanded in 2026?

1 option · Leader: Before 2027

30%

How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?

12 options · Leader: Between 400 and 449

▼ -0.3%

14%

Will the NPVIC reach 270 electoral votes?

3 options · Leader: Before 2034

Will Daylight Saving Time become permanent in 2026?

1 option · Leader: Will permanent daylight savings become law before Jan 1, 2027?

13%

Will the Drain the Swamp Act become law?

1 option · Leader: Before Jan 4, 2027

Will the DOJ reopen its investigation into Powell?

4 options · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027

Will Trump abolish the Department of Education?

1 option · Leader: Before Jan 20, 2029

Deportations in 2026?

5 options · Leader: Above 300,000

▲ +0.3%

92.2%

Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration

3 options · Leader: $40 trillion

97.1%

Will the debt ceiling be abolished?

1 option · Leader: Before 2027

When will the DOJ release Data Set 13?

2 options · Leader: Before September

▼ -3.9%

Will congestion pricing in NYC end before 2027?

1 option · Leader: In 2027

3.6%

Will Trump establish nationwide concealed carry?

1 option · Leader: Before Jan 4, 2027

4.1%

Comey indictment reinstated on appeal before 2027?

1 option · Leader: Before 2027

21%

Who will win the Chicago mayoral election?

9 options · Leader: Alexi Giannoulias

54%

Will the California Voter ID initiative pass?

1 option · Leader: the 2026 California Voter ID initiative

44%

Will a ballot initiative on California secession qualify for a vote before 2030?

1 option · Leader: Before 2030

27%

Will Brendan Carr leave as FCC chair before 2027?

1 option · Leader: Will Brendan Carr leave chair of the Federal Communications Commission before Jan 1, 2027?

14%

Will the carried interest loophole be closed?

4 options · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2030

47%

Who will leave California before 2027?

7 options · Leader: Peter Thiel

▼ -3%

51%

Will Trump lower beef tariffs?

3 options · Leader: Before Jul 1, 2026

▲ +19%

42%

Wisconsin Attorney General winner?

2 options · Leader: Democratic party

81%

Who will win the Attorney General race in Vermont?

2 options · Leader: Democratic party

90.2%

South Dakota Attorney General winner?

2 options · Leader: Republican party

90%

South Carolina Attorney General winner?

2 options · Leader: Republican party

87%

Who will win the Attorney General race in Rhode Island?

2 options · Leader: Democratic party

85%

Who will win the Attorney General race in Oklahoma?

2 options · Leader: Republican party

91%

New York Attorney General winner?

2 options · Leader: Democratic party

92.2%

Nevada Attorney General winner?

2 options · Leader: Democratic party

75%

Who will win the Attorney General race in New Mexico?

2 options · Leader: Democratic party

92.9%

Who will win the Attorney General race in Nebraska?

2 options · Leader: Republican party

88%

Who will win the Attorney General race in North Dakota?

2 options · Leader: Republican party

91%

Minnesota Attorney General winner?

2 options · Leader: Democratic party

87%

Michigan Attorney General winner?

2 options · Leader: Democratic party

70%

Who will win the Attorney General race in Maryland?

2 options · Leader: Democratic party

95%

Massachusetts Attorney General winner?

2 options · Leader: Democratic party

91.1%

Who will win the Attorney General race in Kansas?

2 options · Leader: Republican party

61%

Illinois Attorney General winner?

2 options · Leader: Democratic party

93.1%

Who will win the Attorney General race in Idaho?

2 options · Leader: Republican party

96%

Georgia Attorney General winner?

2 options · Leader: Republican party

47%

Who will win the Attorney General race in Florida?

2 options · Leader: Republican party

Who will win the Attorney General race in Delaware?

2 options · Leader: Democratic party

89%

Connecticut Attorney General winner?

2 options · Leader: Democratic party

89%

Who will win the Attorney General race in Colorado?

2 options · Leader: Democratic party

84%

Arizona Attorney General winner?

2 options · Leader: Democratic party

68%

Arkansas Attorney General winner?

2 options · Leader: Republican party

92%

Will Anthropic win its lawsuit against the Pentagon?

1 option · Leader: Before 2028

60%

Arizona Republican Attorney General nominee?

3 options · Leader: Warren Petersen

64%

Which agencies will Trump eliminate?

4 options · Leader: USAID

How many federal agencies will Trump cut?

7 options · Leader: More than 10

Will Obamacare be repealed before 2029?

1 option · Leader: Before Jan 20, 2029

21%

Will a bill that directly funds HSAs/FSAs become law?

1 option · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027

Will the 48E commercial solar Investment Tax Credit be reinstated before December 31, 2029?

1 option · Leader: Will legislation that reinstates the Section 48E commercial Investment Tax Credit, or an equivalent credit, equal to 30% or greater of the solar value for commercial filers who own solar assets beyond the eligibility window currently in effect under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Public Law 119-21) become law before Dec 31, 2029?