Other policy markets
US-Iran nuclear deal?
8 options · Leader: Before Jan 20, 2029
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
2 options · Leader: Before 2027
Will crypto market structure legislation become law?
2 options · Leader: Before 2027
Will the SAVE Act become law?
1 option · Leader: Before Jan 4, 2027
How many people will Trump pardon in Jul 2026?
8 options · Leader: 10 to 24
Will proof of citizenship be required for federal voter registration?
2 options · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027
How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (6/28 - 7/4)
3 options · Leader: Above 0
Who will be arrested before 2027?
19 options · Leader: John Brennan
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
40 options · Leader: John Brennan
Which bills will become law in 2026?
30 options · Leader: Housing for the 21st Century Act
Will Trump create a $250 bill featuring himself?
1 option · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027
Will marijuana be rescheduled?
3 options · Leader: Before Jan 20, 2029
Will any court rule that the 2024 election was fraudulent?
1 option · Leader: Before 2027
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran?
2 options · Leader: Before 2027
Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba?
2 options · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027
When will a Trump passport be issued?
4 options · Leader: Before Sep 1, 2026
Major news story in Jul 2026?
4 options · Leader: At least 2
Will the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act become law?
4 options · Leader: Before Aug 1, 2026
Will the House pass additional defense funding?
2 options · Leader: Before Oct 1, 2026
Will Mamdani sign an executive order this week? (6/28 - 7/4)
1 option · Leader: Above 0
Will the Department of Defense be renamed the Department of War by law in 2026?
1 option · Leader: Will legislation that makes “Department of War” the official statutory name of the United States Department of Defense become law before Jan 1, 2027?
Comprehensive federal AI legislation in 2026?
1 option · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027
Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?
1 option · Leader: In 2026
Which ballot measures will pass in California?
13 options · Leader: Proposition 45
How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (7/5 - 7/11)
2 options · Leader: Above 1
Deportations in 2026?
5 options · Leader: Above 200,000
Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
1 option · Leader: Will the US government be shut down on Oct 1, 2026?
Will Ghislaine Maxwell be released from government custody?
1 option · Leader: Before 2027
Will the US acquire any new territory?
3 options · Leader: Before Jan 21, 2029
What will be the 51st state in Trump's term?
8 options · Leader: Venezuela
Will LLM restrictions become law in 2026?
1 option · Leader: By Jan 1, 2027
Will Trump order tariffs in Jul 2026?
1 option · Leader: Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on imposing new or increased tariffs on any country, provided the action specifies an effective date (even if such date occurs after expiration) during in Jul 2026?
How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
8 options · Leader: $0 / No Acquisition
How many federal judges will be confirmed in Jul 2026?
5 options · Leader: At least 1
Will Trump add himself to Mt. Rushmore?
1 option · Leader: Before 2029
Who will Trump nominate as FDA commissioner?
7 options · Leader: Kyle Diamantas
Which vaccines will the CDC no longer recommend in 2026?
6 options · Leader: COVID-19
Will the Citrini scenario happen?
1 option · Leader: Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2?
Jacob Frey out as Mayor of Minneapolis?
1 option · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027
Arizona Republican Attorney General nominee?
3 options · Leader: Warren Petersen
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?
2 options · Leader: Before Jan 20, 2029
Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before 2027?
1 option · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027
Will Mamdani raise corporate taxes before 2027?
1 option · Leader: Will Mamdani raise corporate taxes before 2027?
Will the federal government start mining Bitcoin?
1 option · Leader: Before 2027
Will the ban on supersonic flight over land end before 2028?
1 option · Leader: Before 2028
Will the President order the release of UFO files?
1 option · Leader: Before Aug 1, 2026
When will FISA be reauthorized again?
4 options · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027
Will Trump make a new free trade agreement with China?
1 option · Leader: Before 2029
Will Trump invoke the DC Home Rule Act?
2 options · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027
Who will receive payment from Trump’s Anti-Weaponization Fund in 2026?
6 options · Leader: Mike Lindell
Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?
4 options · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2030
Will Daylight Saving Time become permanent?
3 options · Leader: Before Jan 20, 2029
Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration
3 options · Leader: $40 trillion
Will the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed?
2 options · Leader: Before 2027
Will Trump impose martial law before his term ends?
1 option · Leader: Before Jan 20, 2029
Will credit card rates be capped in 2026?
1 option · Leader: Before 2027
Who will switch or leave their party in 2026?
6 options · Leader: Marjorie Taylor Greene
US credit rating downgrade in 2026?
1 option · Leader: Rating reduced
Will the US reopen its embassy in Syria?
1 option · Leader: Before 2027
Will a bill curbing pharmaceutical monopolies become law?
1 option · Leader: Before Jan 4, 2027
Will Trump recognize Somaliland?
2 options · Leader: Before Jan 20, 2029
Will Trump add a 51st state to the US?
1 option · Leader: Before 2029
Will ICE change its name in 2026?
1 option · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027
Will new tariffs become law?
1 option · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027
Will the FCC pull a Big Four TV station license?
3 options · Leader: Before Apr 1, 2027
Who will win the Attorney General race in Kansas?
2 options · Leader: Republican party
Will a 1-megawatt data center go live in orbit?
6 options · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2035
Courts consider Amazon a monopoly?
1 option · Leader: Government wins
Will Mamdani raise property taxes?
1 option · Leader: Will legislation increasing New York City's property tax rate become law in New York City before Jan 1, 2027?
How much government spending will Trump cut before 2027?
6 options · Leader: At least 50 billion
Will the US Mint finalize a design for the Trump dollar before 2027?
1 option · Leader: In 2026
Will Trump eliminate capital gains taxes on crypto?
1 option · Leader: Before 2027
Will the Kids Online Safety Act become law?
1 option · Leader: Before 2027
Will DC come under federal control in 2026?
1 option · Leader: A bill ending self rule in Washington DC
When will Trump's ballroom be completed?
4 options · Leader: Before 2030
Will Mamdani tax billionaires before 2027?
1 option · Leader: Will become law in New York City before Jan 1, 2027?
Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
18 options · Leader: Bill Clinton
Will construction begin on Trump’s triumphal arch in 2026?
1 option · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027
US test scores in Reading in 2026?
3 options · Leader: Significant decrease
Will Trump try to leave the USMCA?
1 option · Leader: Before 2027
Which countries will have their US Travel Advisory downgraded in 2026?
18 options · Leader: Uganda
What will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration?
10 options · Leader: World Trade Organization
Will the DOJ claim a Biden pardon is void in court?
1 option · Leader: Before 2027
NYC population change (July 2025 – July 2027)?
8 options · Leader: Increase 0.01-0.99%
Will Mamdani tax incomes over $1M before 2027?
1 option · Leader: Will Mamdani tax incomes over $1M before 2027?
Which agencies will Trump eliminate?
4 options · Leader: USAID
Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?
4 options · Leader: Critical minerals
Will Mamdani establish universal child care before 2027?
1 option · Leader: Will Mamdani establish universal child care before 2027?
Which state laws will be enacted in 2026?
5 options · Leader: Clean Energy Affordability Rewrite
Will NYC buses become free before 2027?
1 option · Leader: In 2026
US test scores in Math in 2026?
3 options · Leader: No significant difference
Will Trump pull CBP from a sanctuary city airport?
3 options · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027
Will the California billionaire wealth tax appear on the ballot?
1 option · Leader: Will a one-time tax on billionaires be held in California before Nov 3, 2026?
Will Trump end income tax for people earning under $150k?
1 option · Leader: Before 2027
Will the California Voter ID initiative pass?
1 option · Leader: the 2026 California Voter ID initiative
Will Anthropic win its lawsuit against the Pentagon?
1 option · Leader: Before 2028
How many bills will President Trump sign in Jul 2026?
8 options · Leader: 3
Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas in 2026? (Blexas)
1 option · Leader: Will the number of Democrats who win a statewide election in Texas in 2026 be above 0?
Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended?
1 option · Leader: Before 2027
Will Trump restrict SNAP benefits?
1 option · Leader: Before Jan 4, 2027
Will the US government rescind the Anthropic ban?
2 options · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027
Will the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030?
1 option · Leader: Before 2030
Will Trump recognize Taiwan?
2 options · Leader: Before Jan 20, 2029
Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Jul 2026?
1 option · Leader: Before Aug 1, 2026
Will Trump nationalize SpaceX?
1 option · Leader: Before Jan 2027
Will Trump be held liable for January 6th in any court?
1 option · Leader: Before his term ends
Will California’s billionaire tax take effect?
1 option · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027
How many bills with Trump veto in 2026?
5 options · Leader: At least 1
Will the U.S. sovereign wealth fund be operational before 2027?
1 option · Leader: Before 2027
Will the US lose measles elimination status in 2026?
1 option · Leader: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that PAHO's Regional Verification Commission (RVC) determines that endemic measles transmission has been re-established in the United States before Jan 1, 2027?
Texas Railroad Commissioner winner
2 options · Leader: Bo French
Who will Donald Trump talk to in Jul 2026?
1 option · Leader: Jensen Huang
Will the US Treasury have any transactions on the blockchain?
1 option · Leader: Before 2027
Will Trump invoke the Taft-Hartley Act during his presidency?
1 option · Leader: Before Jan 20, 2029
Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
6 options · Leader: Josh Hawley
Will the federal gas tax be suspended?
1 option · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027
Will Trump embargo a new country?
2 options · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027
Will Social Security’s retirement trust fund be depleted?
1 option · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2033
US bans social media for children in 2026?
1 option · Leader: US bans social media for children before 2027?
Wisconsin Secretary of State winner?
2 options · Leader: Democratic party
Nevada Secretary of State winner?
2 options · Leader: Democratic party
Indiana Secretary of State winner?
2 options · Leader: Republican party
Arizona Secretary of State winner?
2 options · Leader: Democratic party
Will the SEC eliminate the quarterly reporting requirement?
2 options · Leader: Before Apr 1, 2027
When will the Senate pass a budget resolution?
3 options · Leader: Before Oct 1, 2026
Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?
1 option · Leader: Before 2027
Will cannabis banking insurance protections become law in 2026?
1 option · Leader: Will becomes law before Jan 1, 2027?
Who will run for public office in 2026?
1 option · Leader: Glenn Youngkin
RNC Cash on Hand (End of Q2)
7 options · Leader: Above 120 million
Which abortion-related measures will pass in 2026?
3 options · Leader: Nevada Question 6
Number of White House Press Briefings in Jul 2026?
1 option · Leader: At least 1
Will New York tax QSBS gains?
1 option · Leader: Will legislation that decouples New York tax law from the federal Qualified Small Business Stock (QSBS) gain exclusion under IRC §1202 become law in New York before Jan 1, 2027?
NYC efficiency savings in FY2027?
5 options · Leader: Above $400 million
Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027?
1 option · Leader: Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027?
Will Mamdani open a city-owned grocery store before 2028?
1 option · Leader: Before Jan 2028
Will Mamdani establish a Department of Community Safety before 2027?
1 option · Leader: Will Mamdani establish a Department of Community Safety before 2027?
Will an AI professional-impersonation bill become law in New York?
1 option · Leader: Will legislation that imposes liability for damages caused by a chatbot impersonating certain licensed professionals become law in New York before Jan 1, 2027?
How many government shutdowns in 2026?
4 options · Leader: 2
Will the nickel be discontinued?
1 option · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027
Which cities will the National Guard deploy to in 2026?
5 options · Leader: Detroit
Will Trump approve a new city on federal land?
1 option · Leader: Before 2029
North Carolina Supreme Court winner?
2 options · Leader: Anita Earls
Will Trump declare a national emergency?
1 option · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027
Will mail-order mifepristone access be restricted nationwide?
1 option · Leader: Before 2027
Will Michigan approve a constitutional convention?
1 option · Leader: Proposal 2026-01, the Michigan constitutional convention question
Chicago mayoral election winner? (2027)
7 options · Leader: Alexi Giannoulias
Will the Treasury grant retroactive cannabis tax relief?
1 option · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027
Will the Massachusetts rent control initiative pass?
1 option · Leader: In 2026
Louisville Mayor Election winner?
2 options · Leader: Craig Greenberg
Jessica Tisch departure announced?
1 option · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027
Frank Bradley departure announced?
1 option · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027
When will Kari Lake be confirmed as Ambassador to Jamaica?
3 options · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027
Los Angeles City Council District 13 winner election?
4 options · Leader: Hugo Soto-Martinez
Los Angeles City Council District 1 winner
5 options · Leader: Eunisses Hernandez
Will the Jones Act be repealed?
1 option · Leader: Before Jan 4, 2027
Which ICE reforms will become law in 2026?
6 options · Leader: Mandatory body-worn cameras
When will the House pass a budget resolution?
3 options · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027
Will Trump suspend habeas corpus?
1 option · Leader: Before Trump's term ends
Will Trump expand the H1-B program?
1 option · Leader: Before 2029
How much government spending will Trump cut before his term ends?
5 options · Leader: At least 250 billion
Will anyone face federal charges tied to Fulton County’s 2020 election?
1 option · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027
Will Georgia officially switch to permanent daylight saving time?
1 option · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2028
Georgia: Which elections will be won outright?
6 options · Leader: Secretary of State
Who will the FTC go after next?
5 options · Leader: Microsoft
Will Trump make a new free trade agreement?
1 option · Leader: Before 2029
How long will the next FISA authorization be?
5 options · Leader: At least 90 days
Will Republicans hold a midterm convention?
1 option · Leader: Before Nov 3, 2026
Will Democrats hold a midterm convention?
1 option · Leader: Before Nov 3, 2026
When will a farm bill become law?
3 options · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027
Will E-Verify be expanded in 2026?
1 option · Leader: Before 2027
Will Trump release more Epstein files in Jul 2026?
1 option · Leader: Before Aug 1, 2026
How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?
12 options · Leader: Between 400 and 449
Will the NPVIC reach 270 electoral votes?
3 options · Leader: Before 2034
Will the Drain the Swamp Act become law?
1 option · Leader: Before Jan 4, 2027
Will the DOJ reopen its investigation into Powell?
2 options · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027
Will Trump abolish the Department of Education?
1 option · Leader: Before Jan 20, 2029
DNC Cash on Hand (End of Q2)
5 options · Leader: Above 14 million
Will Trump win his BBC lawsuit?
1 option · Leader: Before 2028
Will the debt ceiling be abolished?
1 option · Leader: Before 2027
When will the DOJ release Data Set 13?
2 options · Leader: Before September
Will any state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
1 option · Leader: Will any state enact a data center moratorium?
Will the US ban crude oil exports?
2 options · Leader: Before 2027
Will Trump cut corporate taxes this year?
1 option · Leader: Will the corporate tax be decreased before Jan 1, 2027?
Will congestion pricing in NYC end before 2027?
1 option · Leader: In 2027
Will Trump establish nationwide concealed carry?
1 option · Leader: Before Jan 4, 2027
FY2026 Commerce Department gifts and bequests (including Gold Card receipts)
7 options · Leader: Above $1M
Comey indictment reinstated on appeal before 2027?
1 option · Leader: Before 2027
Chicago Mayor winner?
9 options · Leader: Alexi Giannoulias
Will the US ban CBDC in 2026?
1 option · Leader: Will legislation prohibiting the Federal Reserve from studying, developing, or issuing a central bank digital currency become law before Jan 1, 2027?
California State Senate District 26 election winner
1 option · Leader: Paul A. Bowers
Will a ballot initiative on California secession qualify for a vote before 2030?
1 option · Leader: Before 2030
Brendan Carr departure announced?
1 option · Leader: Will Brendan Carr leave chair of the Federal Communications Commission before Jan 1, 2027?
Will the carried interest loophole be closed?
2 options · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2028
Will Trump impose capital controls?
1 option · Leader: Before 2029
Who will leave California before 2027?
7 options · Leader: Larry Page
Will any CA state executives be federally charged with fraud?
1 option · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027
Will the DOJ release the Biden ghostwriter tapes?
1 option · Leader: Before Oct 1, 2026
Wisconsin Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leader: Democratic party
Who will win the Attorney General race in Vermont?
2 options · Leader: Democratic party
Texas Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leader: Mayes Middleton
South Dakota Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leader: Republican party
South Carolina Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leader: David Stumbo
Who will win the Attorney General race in Rhode Island?
2 options · Leader: Democratic party
Who will win the Attorney General race in Oklahoma?
2 options · Leader: Republican party
Ohio Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leader: Republican party
New York Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leader: Democratic party
Nevada Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leader: Nicole Jeanette Cannizzaro
Who will win the Attorney General race in New Mexico?
2 options · Leader: Democratic party
Who will win the Attorney General race in Nebraska?
2 options · Leader: Republican party
Who will win the Attorney General race in North Dakota?
2 options · Leader: Republican party
Minnesota Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leader: Democratic party
Michigan Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leader: Democratic party
Who will win the Attorney General race in Maryland?
2 options · Leader: Democratic party
Massachusetts Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leader: Democratic party
Illinois Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leader: Democratic party
Who will win the Attorney General race in Idaho?
2 options · Leader: Republican party
Who will win the Attorney General race in Iowa?
2 options · Leader: Republican party
Georgia Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leader: Republican party
Who will win the Attorney General race in Florida?
2 options · Leader: Republican party
Who will win the Attorney General race in Delaware?
1 option · Leader: Democratic party
Connecticut Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leader: Democratic party
Who will win the Attorney General race in Colorado?
2 options · Leader: Democratic party
Arizona Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leader: Democratic party
Arkansas Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leader: Republican party
Will Trump order mandatory pre-release federal review of AI models?
2 options · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027
Will Obamacare be repealed before 2029?
1 option · Leader: Before Jan 20, 2029
Will a bill that directly funds HSAs/FSAs become law?
1 option · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027
Will the 48E commercial solar Investment Tax Credit be reinstated before December 31, 2029?
1 option · Leader: Will legislation that reinstates the Section 48E commercial Investment Tax Credit, or an equivalent credit, equal to 30% or greater of the solar value for commercial filers who own solar assets beyond the eligibility window currently in effect under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Public Law 119-21) become law before Dec 31, 2029?