Other policy markets
Will the Citrini scenario happen?
1 option · Leads: Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2? · Vol: $25.9M
Will the SAVE Act become law?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 4, 2027 · Vol: $11.8M
US-Iran nuclear deal?
9 options · Leads: Before Jan 20, 2029 · Vol: $4.5M
Will the Clarity Act become law?
9 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2028 · Vol: $3.5M
Will the SAVE America Act become law?
5 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $1.7M
What will be the 51st state in Trump's term?
8 options · Leads: Cuba · Vol: $1.7M
How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
8 options · Leads: $0 / No Acquisition · Vol: $1.7M
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
40 options · Leads: Anthony Fauci · Vol: $1.4M
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
1 option · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $1.2M
Who will be arrested in 2026?
19 options · Leads: John Brennan · Vol: $1.2M
Will Trump create a $250 bill featuring himself?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $948K
Will marijuana be rescheduled?
3 options · Leads: Before Jan 20, 2029 · Vol: $835K
Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?
1 option · Leads: In 2026 · Vol: $767K
Which bills will become law in 2026?
30 options · Leads: Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions · Vol: $561K
Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
1 option · Leads: Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026? · Vol: $557K
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?
2 options · Leads: Before Jan 20, 2029 · Vol: $540K
Will credit card rates be capped in 2026?
1 option · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $409K
Will the US acquire any new territory?
3 options · Leads: Before Jan 21, 2029 · Vol: $332K
Will the California billionaire wealth tax appear on the ballot?
1 option · Leads: Will a one-time tax on billionaires be held in California before Nov 3, 2026? · Vol: $320K
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran?
2 options · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $290K
Will the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed?
2 options · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $289K
Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?
4 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2030 · Vol: $276K
How much government spending will Trump cut before 2027?
6 options · Leads: At least 250 billion · Vol: $249K
Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended?
1 option · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $242K
Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
1 option · Leads: Will the US government be shut down on Oct 1, 2026? · Vol: $191K
Which agencies will Trump eliminate?
4 options · Leads: USAID · Vol: $180K
Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $178K
Will Trump abolish the Department of Education?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 20, 2029 · Vol: $159K
Who will switch or leave their party in 2026?
6 options · Leads: Marjorie Taylor Greene · Vol: $144K
Will the federal gas tax be suspended?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $143K
Will Trump expand the H-1B program?
1 option · Leads: Before 2029 · Vol: $122K
Jeanine Pirro announces departure as D.C. U.S. Attorney?
2 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $120K
Deportations in 2026?
6 options · Leads: Above 200,000 · Vol: $111K
Will Daylight Saving Time become permanent?
3 options · Leads: Before Jan 20, 2029 · Vol: $104K
Will Mamdani raise corporate taxes?
4 options · Leads: Before 2030 · Vol: $102K
When will FISA be reauthorized again?
3 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $87K
NYC population change (July 2025 – July 2027)?
8 options · Leads: Increase 0.01-0.99% · Vol: $85K
Will Trump add a 51st state to the US?
1 option · Leads: Before 2029 · Vol: $82K
Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration
6 options · Leads: $42.5 trillion · Vol: $81K
Which countries will have their US Travel Advisory downgraded in 2026?
18 options · Leads: Uganda · Vol: $77K
When will Kari Lake be confirmed as Ambassador to Jamaica?
3 options · Leads: Before Apr 1, 2027 · Vol: $75K
Will Trump end income tax for people earning under $150k?
1 option · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $74K
US credit rating downgrade in 2026?
1 option · Leads: Rating reduced · Vol: $74K
Will Mamdani tax billion-dollar incomes in 2026?
1 option · Leads: Will become law in New York City before Jan 1, 2027? · Vol: $72K
Will Ghislaine Maxwell be released from government custody?
1 option · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $71K
Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement with China?
1 option · Leads: Before 2029 · Vol: $68K
Chicago Mayor winner?
9 options · Leads: Alexi Giannoulias · Vol: $68K
Will Trump eliminate capital gains taxes on crypto?
1 option · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $68K
Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
18 options · Leads: Bill Clinton · Vol: $68K
How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?
12 options · Leads: Between 400 and 449 · Vol: $61K
When will Trump's ballroom be completed?
4 options · Leads: Before 2030 · Vol: $59K
Will Trump cut corporate taxes this year?
1 option · Leads: Will the corporate tax be decreased before Jan 1, 2027? · Vol: $58K
Who will receive payment from Trump’s Anti-Weaponization Fund in 2026?
6 options · Leads: Enrique Tarrio · Vol: $56K
Will LLM restrictions become law in 2026?
1 option · Leads: By Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $56K
US test scores in Math in 2026?
3 options · Leads: No significant difference · Vol: $56K
Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $56K
US test scores in Reading in 2026?
3 options · Leads: No significant difference · Vol: $55K
Which ICE reforms will become law in 2026?
6 options · Leads: Mandatory body-worn cameras · Vol: $54K
Will the federal government start mining Bitcoin?
1 option · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $54K
Will Trump impose martial law before his term ends?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 20, 2029 · Vol: $53K
How many government shutdowns in 2026?
4 options · Leads: 2 · Vol: $51K
Will DC come under federal control in 2026?
1 option · Leads: A bill ending self rule in Washington DC · Vol: $50K
Will any court rule that the 2024 election was fraudulent?
1 option · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $49K
When will the DOJ release Data Set 13?
2 options · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $48K
Which ballot measures will pass in Arkansas?
4 options · Leads: Citizens Only Voting Amendment · Vol: $44K
Will a 1-megawatt data center go live in orbit?
6 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2035 · Vol: $43K
Will a New York Times reporter be federally charged over Air Force One reporting?
2 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $43K
Chicago mayoral election winner? (2027)
7 options · Leads: Alexi Giannoulias · Vol: $42K
Will the SEC eliminate the quarterly reporting requirement?
2 options · Leads: Before Apr 1, 2027 · Vol: $41K
Will Mamdani tax incomes over $1M before 2027?
1 option · Leads: Will Mamdani tax incomes over $1M before 2027? · Vol: $40K
Will Mamdani establish universal child care before 2027?
1 option · Leads: Will Mamdani establish universal child care before 2027? · Vol: $37K
Will Trump recognize Taiwan?
2 options · Leads: Before Jan 20, 2029 · Vol: $36K
Will Trump restrict SNAP benefits?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 4, 2027 · Vol: $36K
Will Mamdani open a city-owned grocery store before 2028?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 2028 · Vol: $35K
How many bills with Trump veto in 2026?
5 options · Leads: At least 1 · Vol: $35K
Will the U.S. sovereign wealth fund be operational before 2027?
1 option · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $33K
Jacob Frey out as Mayor of Minneapolis?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $31K
Courts consider Amazon a monopoly?
1 option · Leads: Government wins · Vol: $30K
Will the Massachusetts rent control initiative pass?
1 option · Leads: In 2026 · Vol: $30K
Will Mamdani establish a Department of Community Safety before 2027?
1 option · Leads: Will Mamdani establish a Department of Community Safety before 2027? · Vol: $30K
How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (8/9 - 8/15)
3 options · Leads: Above 0 · Vol: $30K
Los Angeles City Council District 13 winner election?
4 options · Leads: Hugo Soto-Martinez · Vol: $29K
Will Trump invoke the DC Home Rule Act?
2 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $29K
Will NYC buses become free before 2027?
1 option · Leads: In 2026 · Vol: $29K
Which ballot measures will pass in Arizona?
7 options · Leads: Proposition 141 · Vol: $28K
Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?
4 options · Leads: Critical minerals · Vol: $28K
Will Trump’s 50% tariffs on Canada take effect August 19?
1 option · Leads: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the additional 50% tariffs established by President Donald Trump’s three July 20, 2026 Section 338 proclamations begin applying to covered Canadian goods on August 19, 2026 before Aug 20, 2026? · Vol: $28K
Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?
3 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $27K
Will the Department of Defense be renamed the Department of War by law in 2026?
1 option · Leads: Will legislation that makes “Department of War” the official statutory name of the United States Department of Defense become law before Jan 1, 2027? · Vol: $27K
Jessica Tisch departure announced?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $26K
Will Trump recognize Somaliland?
2 options · Leads: Before Jan 20, 2029 · Vol: $26K
How long will the next FISA authorization be in 2026?
5 options · Leads: At least 30 days · Vol: $26K
Which ballot measures will pass in Alabama?
3 options · Leads: Amendment 3 · Vol: $25K
Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement?
1 option · Leads: Before 2029 · Vol: $25K
Will ICE change its name in 2026?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $24K
Will new tariffs become law?
3 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $24K
Which ballot measures will pass in Louisiana?
10 options · Leads: Disabled Veteran Spouse Tax Exemption · Vol: $24K
How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
4 options · Leads: At least 2 · Vol: $23K
Will Trump embargo a new country?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $23K
Which ballot measures will pass in Idaho?
3 options · Leads: English as Official State Language Amendment · Vol: $22K
Will the FCC pull a Big Four TV station license?
2 options · Leads: Before Apr 1, 2027 · Vol: $22K
How many federal judges will be confirmed in Aug 2026?
3 options · Leads: At least 4 · Vol: $22K
Iowa Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leads: Brenna Bird · Vol: $22K
Will Trump add himself to Mt. Rushmore?
1 option · Leads: Before 2029 · Vol: $21K
Which cities will the National Guard deploy to in 2026?
5 options · Leads: Detroit · Vol: $21K
Will the US reopen its embassy in Syria?
1 option · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $21K
Will Trump nationalize SpaceX?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 2027 · Vol: $21K
Who will announce a California departure in 2026?
7 options · Leads: Peter Thiel · Vol: $21K
Which ballot measures will pass in Colorado?
8 options · Leads: Initiative #108 · Vol: $20K
What will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration?
10 options · Leads: World Trade Organization · Vol: $20K
Will the US ban crude oil exports?
1 option · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $20K
Wisconsin Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leads: Josh Kaul · Vol: $20K
Will an AI professional-impersonation bill become law in New York?
1 option · Leads: Will legislation that imposes liability for damages caused by a chatbot impersonating certain licensed professionals become law in New York before Jan 1, 2027? · Vol: $20K
FY2026 Commerce Department gifts and bequests (including Gold Card receipts)
8 options · Leads: Above $1M · Vol: $19K
Indiana Secretary of State winner?
2 options · Leads: Beau Bayh · Vol: $19K
Will the ban on supersonic flight over land end before 2028?
1 option · Leads: Before 2028 · Vol: $19K
Will Anthropic win its lawsuit against the Pentagon?
1 option · Leads: Before 2028 · Vol: $19K
How many votes will a Russia sanctions bill receive in the House?
7 options · Leads: Above 250 · Vol: $19K
US bans social media for children in 2026?
1 option · Leads: US bans social media for children before 2027? · Vol: $18K
Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027?
1 option · Leads: Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027? · Vol: $18K
New York Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leads: Letitia James · Vol: $17K
Will the DOJ claim a Biden pardon is void in court?
1 option · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $16K
Will the DOJ reopen its investigation into Powell?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $16K
How many FY2027 appropriations bills will become law before Oct 1, 2026?
3 options · Leads: At least 1 · Vol: $16K
When will Trump release more UFO files?
7 options · Leads: Before Oct 2, 2026 · Vol: $15K
Will Mamdani raise property taxes?
1 option · Leads: Will legislation increasing New York City's property tax rate become law in New York City before Jan 1, 2027? · Vol: $15K
Will the US ban CBDC in 2026?
1 option · Leads: Will legislation prohibiting the Federal Reserve from studying, developing, or issuing a central bank digital currency become law before Jan 1, 2027? · Vol: $15K
Will Democrats win any statewide election in Texas in 2026? (Blexas)
1 option · Leads: Will the number of Democrats who win a statewide election in Texas in 2026 be above 0? · Vol: $14K
Will Democrats hold a midterm convention?
1 option · Leads: Before Nov 3, 2026 · Vol: $14K
Comey indictment reinstated on appeal before 2027?
1 option · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $14K
Which ballot measures will pass in Rhode Island?
5 options · Leads: Housing & Homeownership Bond · Vol: $14K
Will Trump pull CBP from a sanctuary city airport?
2 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $14K
Will Florida’s property tax amendment pass?
1 option · Leads: Will Florida Amendment 3, “Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes” pass? · Vol: $14K
Louisville Mayor Election winner?
2 options · Leads: Craig Greenberg · Vol: $13K
Will Mamdani sign an executive order this week? (8/16 - 8/22)
1 option · Leads: Above 0 · Vol: $13K
Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
6 options · Leads: Kirsten Gillibrand · Vol: $13K
How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (8/2 - 8/8)
1 option · Leads: Above 2 · Vol: $12K
Which ballot measures will pass in Indiana?
2 options · Leads: Public Question 1 · Vol: $12K
Will Iowa vote to require a two-thirds vote to raise the income tax?
1 option · Leads: Will Amendment 1 pass? · Vol: $12K
Minnesota Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leads: Keith Ellison · Vol: $12K
Will Trump try to leave the USMCA?
1 option · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $12K
Which ballot measures will pass in Georgia?
3 options · Leads: Acre Limit Amendment · Vol: $12K
Will the US Treasury have any transactions on the blockchain?
1 option · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $12K
Will a court block paid early access to Trump's Truth Social posts in 2026?
1 option · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $12K
When will government-wide funding become law?
7 options · Leads: Before Oct 1, 2026 · Vol: $12K
Will the Treasury grant retroactive cannabis tax relief?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $12K
Who will Trump nominate as FDA commissioner?
7 options · Leads: Brian Christine · Vol: $11K
Will nonstop U.S.–Lebanon passenger flights resume?
2 options · Leads: Before Apr 1, 2027 · Vol: $11K
Will anyone face federal charges tied to Fulton County’s 2020 election?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $11K
Which abortion-related measures will pass in 2026?
3 options · Leads: Nevada Question 6 · Vol: $11K
When will the PROMISE Act pass the Senate?
2 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $10K
Texas Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leads: Mayes Middleton · Vol: $10K
Georgia: Which elections will be won outright?
6 options · Leads: Commissioner of Agriculture · Vol: $10K
When will a farm bill become law?
2 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $10K
Will Congress keep 5mg hemp THC beverages federally legal?
2 options · Leads: Before Nov 13, 2026 · Vol: $10K
Which ballot measures will pass in Florida?
2 options · Leads: Amendment 1 · Vol: $10K
Which ballot measures will pass in New Mexico?
5 options · Leads: Senior Citizen Facilities Bond · Vol: $10K
Will the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030?
1 option · Leads: Before 2030 · Vol: $10K
How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (8/16-8/22)
1 option · Leads: At least 1 · Vol: $10K
Will Trump order mandatory pre-release federal review of AI models?
2 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $10K
Frank Bradley departure announced?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $9K
Will Trump establish nationwide concealed carry?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 4, 2027 · Vol: $9K
When will the Senate pass a budget resolution?
2 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $9K
Will Obamacare be repealed before 2029?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 20, 2029 · Vol: $9K
Will California’s billionaire tax take effect?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $9K
Who will run for public office in 2026?
1 option · Leads: Glenn Youngkin · Vol: $9K
Which countries will Trump make formal trade deals with in 2026?
9 options · Leads: Argentina · Vol: $9K
Which vaccines will the CDC no longer recommend in 2026?
6 options · Leads: COVID-19 · Vol: $8K
Which ballot measures will pass in Alaska?
2 options · Leads: Ballot Measure 3 · Vol: $8K
Arizona Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leads: Kris Mayes · Vol: $8K
Will the Jones Act be repealed?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 4, 2027 · Vol: $8K
Which ballot measures will pass in Vermont?
2 options · Leads: Proposal 4 · Vol: $8K
Will Trump declare a national emergency?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $7K
Will China abolish hukou?
4 options · Leads: Before 2030 · Vol: $7K
Which firearm will receive the most votes in Idaho's State Gun advisory question?
6 options · Leads: Winchester Model 1873 (.44-40) · Vol: $7K
Number of White House Press Briefings in Aug 2026?
4 options · Leads: At least 2 · Vol: $7K
Will the U.S.–Saudi nuclear cooperation agreement enter into force?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $7K
Will Trump be held liable for January 6th in any court?
1 option · Leads: Before his term ends · Vol: $7K
How many days will the first FY2027 funding measure cover?
5 options · Leads: At least 70 days · Vol: $7K
Michigan Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leads: Eli Savit · Vol: $7K
Will James Comey’s criminal case be dismissed?
2 options · Leads: Before Oct 1, 2026 · Vol: $6K
DNC Cash on Hand (End of Q3)
7 options · Leads: Above $8M · Vol: $6K
Which ballot measures will pass in Tennessee?
3 options · Leads: Amendment 1 · Vol: $6K
Will construction begin on Trump’s triumphal arch in 2026?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $6K
Will Wyoming vote to exempt 50% of primary-home assessed value?
1 option · Leads: Will Initiative 1 pass? · Vol: $6K
Will Trump impose capital controls?
1 option · Leads: Before 2029 · Vol: $6K
Will NYC’s rent freeze take effect on October 1?
1 option · Leads: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that New York City’s 0% rent adjustment for both one- and two-year rent-stabilized apartment leases commencing from October 1, 2026 through September 30, 2027, taking legal effect before Oct 2, 2026? · Vol: $6K
Will Kentucky vote to limit gubernatorial election-period pardons?
1 option · Leads: Will Amendment 1 pass? · Vol: $6K
Will Trump approve a new city on federal land?
1 option · Leads: Before 2029 · Vol: $6K
Will Kansas vote to require U.S. citizenship to vote?
1 option · Leads: Will HCR 5004 pass? · Vol: $6K
Will Yale settle with DOJ over Law School admissions?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $5K
Will cannabis banking insurance protections become law in 2026?
1 option · Leads: Will becomes law before Jan 1, 2027? · Vol: $5K
Who will be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Aug 21, 2026?
5 options · Leads: James Talarico · Vol: $5K
Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
1 option · Leads: Will X become law in any U.S. state except New York before Jan 1, 2027? · Vol: $5K
Will Trump invoke the Taft-Hartley Act during his presidency?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 20, 2029 · Vol: $5K
Will New Hampshire vote to eliminate the register of probate office?
1 option · Leads: Register of Probate Amendment · Vol: $5K
When will the FY2027 NDAA become law?
7 options · Leads: Before Feb 1, 2027 · Vol: $5K
Will the US restrict access to Kimi in 2026?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $5K
Will Trump release more Epstein files in Aug 2026?
1 option · Leads: Before Sep 1, 2026 · Vol: $5K
Illinois Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leads: Kwame Raoul · Vol: $5K
Will the CIT strike down Trump's Section 301 tariffs in 2026?
1 option · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $5K
Will Republicans hold a midterm convention?
1 option · Leads: Before Nov 3, 2026 · Vol: $5K
NRSC Cash on Hand (End of Q3)
1 option · Leads: Above $20M · Vol: $5K
Which ballot measures will pass in North Dakota?
1 option · Leads: Constitutional Measure 1 · Vol: $4K
Which ballot measures will pass in Maryland?
2 options · Leads: Question 2 · Vol: $4K
How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (8/16 - 8/22)
3 options · Leads: Above 0 · Vol: $4K
Comprehensive federal AI legislation in 2026?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $4K
Will the California Voter ID initiative pass?
1 option · Leads: the 2026 California Voter ID initiative · Vol: $4K
Will any CA state executives be federally charged with fraud?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $4K
Will West Virginia require voters to be U.S. and West Virginia citizens?
1 option · Leads: Will Amendment 1 pass? · Vol: $4K
Which ballot measures will pass in Oklahoma?
2 options · Leads: State Question 847 · Vol: $4K
Vermont Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leads: Charity R. Clark · Vol: $4K
Will Trump formalize a 100% tariff on generic drugs before the midterms?
1 option · Leads: Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on establishing a tariff of 100% or greater specifically on imported generic pharmaceutical products during before Nov 3, 2026? · Vol: $4K
Ken Martin out as DNC chair?
4 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2028 · Vol: $4K
Which ballot measures will pass in Wisconsin?
3 options · Leads: Prohibit Government Closure of Places of Worship During Emergencies Amendment · Vol: $4K
Which ballot measures will pass in Virginia?
1 option · Leads: Question 3 · Vol: $4K
Texas Railroad Commissioner winner
2 options · Leads: Bo French · Vol: $4K
Which ballot measures will pass in Missouri?
1 option · Leads: Amendment 7 · Vol: $4K
Which ballot measures will pass in Utah?
1 option · Leads: 60% Vote for Tax-Raising Initiatives · Vol: $4K
Which ballot measures will pass in California?
13 options · Leads: Proposition 1 · Vol: $4K
Will the US lose measles elimination status in 2026?
1 option · Leads: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that PAHO's Regional Verification Commission (RVC) determines that endemic measles transmission has been re-established in the United States before Jan 1, 2027? · Vol: $4K
Will China abolish birth limits?
4 options · Leads: Before 2030 · Vol: $3K
Will the Anaheim Angels naming bill become law?
1 option · Leads: Will the Anaheim Angels naming bill become law? · Vol: $3K
Will a bill that directly funds HSAs/FSAs become law?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $3K
Nevada Secretary of State winner?
2 options · Leads: Sarah Slattery · Vol: $3K
Will Maine enact a law restricting large data centers?
1 option · Leads: Will Maine enact a law restricting large data centers? · Vol: $3K
Will Trump suspend habeas corpus?
1 option · Leads: Before Trump's term ends · Vol: $3K
How many DSA members will there be at the end of 2026?
4 options · Leads: Above 160,000 · Vol: $3K
New Mexico Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leads: Raúl Torrez · Vol: $3K
Arkansas Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leads: Tim Griffin · Vol: $3K
Will David Hearn be charged again in connection with the Reflecting Pool?
2 options · Leads: Before Oct 1, 2026 · Vol: $3K
Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
1 option · Leads: Will the California High-Speed Rail Authority announce that permanent mainline track installation on the Central Valley high-speed rail guideway has physically begun (rail laid on the running alignment, not materials staging, railhead or yard trackwork, or a declared "track-laying phase") before Jan 1, 2027? · Vol: $3K
Will Maine approve contracts for the northern Maine wind and transmission project?
1 option · Leads: Will the Maine Public Utilities Commission announce its final approval of fully executed contracts (not bidder selections or term-sheet awards) under the Northern Maine Renewable Energy Development Program covering both a transmission line into ISO-New England and at least 600 MW (nameplate) of northern Maine renewable generation delivering over it before Jul 1, 2027? · Vol: $3K
Arizona Secretary of State winner?
2 options · Leads: Adrian Fontes · Vol: $3K
Will Minnesota vote to increase school-fund distributions?
1 option · Leads: Constitutional Amendment · Vol: $3K
Who will Trump pardon?
1 option · Leads: Todd Blanche · Vol: $3K
Nevada Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leads: Nicole Jeanette Cannizzaro · Vol: $3K
When will the debt limit be increased?
3 options · Leads: Before Mar 1, 2027 · Vol: $3K
Ohio Supreme Court: Hawkins seat winner?
2 options · Leads: Dan Hawkins · Vol: $3K
Will CMS release any deferred Medicaid funds to California or Minnesota?
2 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $3K
Who will Trump pardon in 2026?
1 option · Leads: Leonard Glenn Francis · Vol: $3K
Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
8 options · Leads: U.S.–Mexico interim agreement · Vol: $3K
Will New York tax QSBS gains?
1 option · Leads: Will legislation that decouples New York tax law from the federal Qualified Small Business Stock (QSBS) gain exclusion under IRC §1202 become law in New York before Jan 1, 2027? · Vol: $3K
Talarico for Texas Total Receipts (Q3)
1 option · Leads: Above $35M · Vol: $2K
Which ballot measures will pass in South Dakota?
2 options · Leads: Amendment J · Vol: $2K
When will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?
4 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $2K
California State Senate District 26 election winner
1 option · Leads: Paul A. Bowers · Vol: $2K
Wisconsin Secretary of State winner?
2 options · Leads: JoCasta Zamarripa · Vol: $2K
Will the Kids Online Safety Act become law?
1 option · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $2K
Will Trump win his BBC lawsuit?
1 option · Leads: Before 2028 · Vol: $2K
Will Social Security’s retirement trust fund be depleted?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2033 · Vol: $2K
Will a bill curbing pharmaceutical monopolies become law?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 4, 2027 · Vol: $2K
Will Georgia officially switch to permanent daylight saving time?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2028 · Vol: $2K
How many Idaho groundwater rights will be curtailed in 2027?
1 option · Leads: Above 500 · Vol: $2K
Brendan Carr departure announced?
1 option · Leads: Will Brendan Carr leave chair of the Federal Communications Commission before Jan 1, 2027? · Vol: $2K
Which ballot measures will pass in Massachusetts?
4 options · Leads: Question 1 · Vol: $2K
Will the House pass additional defense funding?
2 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $2K
Will Arkansas's crypto mining ownership ban survive appeal?
1 option · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $2K
Will China obtain an EUV machine?
4 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2030 · Vol: $2K
Georgia Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leads: Tanya Miller · Vol: $2K
Which peptides will the FDA propose adding to the 503A Bulks List?
7 options · Leads: Epitalon · Vol: $2K
Which state laws will be enacted in 2026?
6 options · Leads: Clean Energy Affordability Rewrite · Vol: $2K
Will a ballot initiative on California secession qualify for a vote before 2030?
1 option · Leads: Before 2030 · Vol: $2K
Will Zohran Mamdani announce his departure as Mayor of New York City?
2 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2030 · Vol: $2K
Will the US government rescind the Anthropic ban?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $2K
Will UC reinstate its SAT/ACT requirement before 2028?
1 option · Leads: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a systemwide University of California policy reinstating a requirement that first-year undergraduate applicants submit SAT or ACT scores for admission is formally adopted before Jan 1, 2028? · Vol: $1K
Will the U.S. grant CAATSA sanctions relief to Turkey this year?
2 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $1K
Will mail-order mifepristone access be restricted nationwide?
1 option · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $1K
How many bills will President Trump sign in Aug 2026?
3 options · Leads: 2 · Vol: $1K
Massachusetts Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leads: Democratic party · Vol: $1K
Will the NPVIC reach 270 electoral votes?
3 options · Leads: Before 2034 · Vol: $1K
How many people will Trump pardon in Aug 2026?
6 options · Leads: 1 · Vol: $1K
Kansas Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leads: Republican party · Vol: $1K
Will Todd Blanche lose his New York law license?
1 option · Leads: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Todd Blanche loses authorization to practice law in New York State through disbarment, an effective suspension, or a court-accepted resignation from the New York bar that removes his name from the roll of attorneys before Jan 1, 2027? · Vol: $1K
Will the nickel be discontinued?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $1K
Will Michigan approve a constitutional convention?
1 option · Leads: Proposal 2026-01, the Michigan constitutional convention question · Vol: $1K
How much will ACA Marketplace enrollment decline in 2027?
6 options · Leads: Above 5% · Vol: $1K
Connecticut Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leads: William Tong · Vol: $1K
When will insulated copper cable face Section 232 restrictions?
2 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2028 · Vol: $1K
South Carolina Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leads: David Stumbo · Vol: $1K
Will congestion pricing in NYC end before 2027?
1 option · Leads: In 2027 · Vol: $997
When will a reconciliation bill become law?
5 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2029 · Vol: $940
Who will Donald Trump meet in 2026?
1 option · Leads: Abelardo de la Espriella · Vol: $913
RNC Cash on Hand (End of Q3)
1 option · Leads: Above $105M · Vol: $901
Will Ohio vote to constitutionalize in-person voter ID?
1 option · Leads: Will Issue 3 pass? · Vol: $895
NYC efficiency savings in FY2027?
5 options · Leads: Above $400 million · Vol: $838
Which ballot measures will pass in Washington?
2 options · Leads: Initiative No. IL26-001 · Vol: $831
Who will Donald Trump talk to in Aug 2026?
1 option · Leads: Jerome Powell · Vol: $738
Idaho Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leads: Raúl Labrador · Vol: $633
When will Trump nominate someone to the Election Assistance Commission?
2 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $622
Oklahoma Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leads: Jon Echols · Vol: $609
What will the tariff rate on Chinese imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
3 options · Leads: 20% or above · Vol: $604
Will CMS announce a major Medicaid payment deferral against another state?
2 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $600
Ohio Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leads: Keith Faber · Vol: $595
Shawn Fain announces departure as UAW President?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $588
Will the Drain the Swamp Act become law?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 4, 2027 · Vol: $573
Will FERC move to break up PJM in 2026?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $567
Will E-Verify be expanded in 2026?
1 option · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $552
Will the debt ceiling be abolished?
1 option · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $512
Will the House vote on a birth tourism crackdown?
1 option · Leads: Before Oct 1, 2026 · Vol: $494
Florida Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leads: Republican party · Vol: $469
What will NYC’s average daily shelter census be in December 2026?
4 options · Leads: Above 86,000 · Vol: $450
Rhode Island Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leads: Democratic party · Vol: $440
Nebraska Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leads: Mike Hilgers · Vol: $423
Colorado Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leads: Jena Griswold · Vol: $422
Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Aug 2026?
1 option · Leads: Before Sep 1, 2026 · Vol: $415
Will Trump rename ICE to NICE?
1 option · Leads: Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on renaming U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement to a name abbreviated NICE (such as National Immigration and Customs Enforcement) during in 2026? · Vol: $381
Will China unban Bitcoin?
4 options · Leads: Before 2030 · Vol: $377
North Carolina Supreme Court winner?
2 options · Leads: Anita Earls · Vol: $356
Which companies will be added to the Pentagon’s Chinese military companies list?
6 options · Leads: Gotion High-Tech · Vol: $331
North Dakota Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leads: Drew Wrigley · Vol: $327
Maryland Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leads: Anthony G. Brown · Vol: $323
When will Lance Schroyer be confirmed as ICE director?
1 option · Leads: Before Mar 1, 2027 · Vol: $305
Delaware Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leads: Democratic party · Vol: $270
Will federal capital gains taxes be cut in 2026?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $247
Will Trump’s election order lead to large-scale ballot blocking?
1 option · Leads: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the U.S. Postal Service blocks at least 10,000 distinct mail-in or absentee ballots for the November 3, 2026 federal general election pursuant to Executive Order 14399 or a materially equivalent amendment, replacement, or successor measure before Nov 11, 2026? · Vol: $206
Single adult NYC homeless shelter average stay in FY2027?
1 option · Leads: Above 350 days · Vol: $206
NYPD uniformed headcount at the end of 2026?
1 option · Leads: Above 34,250 · Vol: $205
Will Ontario’s minimum wage increase take effect on October 1?
1 option · Leads: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Ontario’s general minimum wage increase to $17.95 per hour takes effect as scheduled on October 1, 2026 before Oct 2, 2026? · Vol: $184
Manhattan congestion-zone vehicle entries in 2026?
2 options · Leads: Above 170 million · Vol: $181
What will NYC subway average weekday ridership be in October 2026?
1 option · Leads: Above 4.2 million · Vol: $177
Will the carried interest loophole be closed?
2 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2028 · Vol: $161
South Dakota Attorney General winner?
2 options · Leads: Lance Russell · Vol: $138
Will CDC cut the childhood vaccine schedule below 11 diseases in 2026?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $128
Will the 48E commercial solar Investment Tax Credit be reinstated before December 31, 2029?
1 option · Leads: Will legislation that reinstates the Section 48E commercial Investment Tax Credit, or an equivalent credit, equal to 30% or greater of the solar value for commercial filers who own solar assets beyond the eligibility window currently in effect under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Public Law 119-21) become law before Dec 31, 2029? · Vol: $83
Will White House ballroom construction be halted?
1 option · Leads: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that above-ground physical construction of the White House State Ballroom has been halted by an effective court order or other binding legal restriction before Aug 22, 2026? · Vol: $37
What will the tariff rate on Mexican imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
3 options · Leads: 10% or above · Vol: $36
What will the tariff rate on Indian imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
3 options · Leads: 10% or above · Vol: $26
What will the tariff rate on Brazilian imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
2 options · Leads: 10% or above · Vol: $25
Who will visit the White House in 2026?
1 option · Leads: Abelardo de la Espriella · Vol: $23
Will California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
1 option · Leads: Will California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity? · Vol: $11
How many affordable homes will NYC finance in FY2027?
1 option · Leads: Above 15,000 · Vol: $7
What will the tariff rate on Canadian imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
2 options · Leads: 10% or above · Vol: $6
Will Nevada vote to require photo ID and mail-voter verification?
1 option · Leads: Will Question 7 pass? · Vol: $5
What will the tariff rate on EU imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
2 options · Leads: 10% or above · Vol: $4
Will Pennsylvania formally begin leaving PJM in 2026?
1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $4
How many new housing units will NYC permit in 2026?
1 option · Leads: Above 41,000 · Vol: $3
How many 2-K seats will NYC make available for 2027–28?
1 option · Leads: Above 16,000 · Vol: $3
Will DHS adopt a $100k OPT fee this year?
1 option · Leads: Department of Homeland Security · Vol: $3
Texas State House winner?
1 option · Leads: Republican party · Vol: $1
SMP Cash on Hand (End of Q3)
1 option · Leads: Above $75M · Vol: $1
Which ballot measures will pass in North Carolina?
1 option · Leads: Voter Identification Amendment · Vol: $0