When will serious AI-incident reporting become U.S. law?
Trade ↗Before Jan 1, 2028 is favored at 60% as of 2 Nov 2026, 06:01 UTC across 3 markets.
- Before Jan 1, 2028: 60% (24h change 0%)
- Before Jul 1, 2027: 38% (24h change 0%)
- Before Jan 1, 2027: 12% (24h change -1%)
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About this market
Market question: When will serious AI-incident reporting become U.S. law?
How to read these odds
Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.
Market odds FAQ
Who is favored in When will serious AI-incident reporting become U.S. law?
Before Jan 1, 2028 is favored at 60% as of 2 Nov 2026, 06:01 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.
What are the current odds for When will serious AI-incident reporting become U.S. law?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 60%; Before Jul 1, 2027: 38%; Before Jan 1, 2027: 12%. These are live market prices.
Where do these odds come from?
Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.