ElectionOddsPowered by Kalshi
Powered by KalshiArizona's 5th District margin of victory·Republicans, 17+ pts·98%(+97%)Wisconsin Democratic Governor nominee?·Francesca Hong·0.1%(-96.2%)MN-03 Republican nominee?·Quentin Wittrock·1%(-93%)Who will be arrested in 2026?·Lee Jun-seok·98%(+90.9%)Minnesota Senate Democratic primary: Angie Craig vote percent·At least 42%·2%(-85%)Florida's 18th District margin of victory·Republicans, 28+ pts·97.6%(+83.6%)Who will visit the White House in 2026?·Jaxson Dart·97%(+83%)MN-05 Republican nominee?·John Nagel·99%(+78%)How many UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?·At least 7·93%(+76%)Will El-Sayed, Flanagan, and Hong win their primaries?·Will progressives sweep key midwest primaries?·2%(-73%)South Carolina Republican Senate special primary margin of victory? (1st Round)·Darline Graham, 5-10%·99%(+72%)Alaska House winner?·Bill Hill·94%(+70%)Minnesota Senate Democratic primary: Peggy Flanagan vote percent·At least 57%·99%(+69%)Will Trump’s election order lead to large-scale ballot blocking?·Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the U.S. Postal Service blocks at least 10,000 distinct mail-in or absentee ballots for the November 3, 2026 federal general election pursuant to Executive Order 14399 or a materially equivalent amendment, replacement, or successor measure before Nov 11, 2026?·85%(+66%)CT-01 Democratic primary: John Larson vote percent·At least 34%·2%(-66%)
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Summary

39.2 is favored at 39% as of 12 Aug 2026, 17:04 UTC across 9 markets. Kalshi odds.

  • 39.2: 39% (24h change 0%)
  • 39.1: 19% (24h change 0%)
  • 39.3: 14% (24h change 0%)
  • 39.5: 5% (24h change 0%)
  • 38.9: 5% (24h change 0%)
  • 39.0: 4% (24h change 0%)
  • Below 38.9: 3% (24h change 0%)
  • 39.4: 2% (24h change 0%)
  • Above 39.5: 2% (24h change 0%)
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Trump's approval rating on Aug 13, 2026?

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39.2

39%
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39.1

19%
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39.3

14%
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38.9

5%
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