Presidential markets

2028 Democratic presidential nominee

48 options · Leads: Jon Ossoff · Vol: $231.4M

—
17%

2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?

31 options · Leads: J.D. Vance · Vol: $70.9M

—
20%

2028 Republican presidential nominee

39 options · Leads: J.D. Vance · Vol: $68.2M

—
44%

Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)

3 options · Leads: Before January 20, 2029 · Vol: $7.6M

▲ +3%
27%

2028 Democratic VP nominee

45 options · Leads: Elissa Slotkin · Vol: $3.2M

▲ +0.9%
9.9%

Will Trump be impeached?

3 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2028 · Vol: $3.1M

▼ -2%
65%

2028 Republican VP nominee

23 options · Leads: Marco Rubio · Vol: $1.6M

—
28%

Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

38 options · Leads: Pete Buttigieg · Vol: $954K

—
89%

Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?

1 option · Leads: Before his term ends · Vol: $718K

▲ +2%
18%

Will President Trump be impeached during his term?

1 option · Leads: Before Jan 20, 2029 · Vol: $610K

—
64%

2026: Trump's dream year?

1 option · Leads: Will the bull case for Trump occur in 2026? · Vol: $599K

▼ -1.9%
1.4%

2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party)

2 options · Leads: Democratic party · Vol: $585K

—
59%

Who will Trump pardon in 2026?

32 options · Leads: Keonne Rodriguez · Vol: $513K

—
17%

Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh?

1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $497K

▲ +1%
39%

Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

36 options · Leads: J.D. Vance · Vol: $484K

▼ -1%
79%

What countries will Trump visit in 2026?

21 options · Leads: Germany · Vol: $475K

—
18%

Will Trump resign during his term?

1 option · Leads: Before his term ends · Vol: $459K

—
18%

Who will Trump pardon?

51 options · Leads: Donald Trump Jr. · Vol: $424K

—
61%

Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term?

1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2029 · Vol: $322K

▲ +0.1%
7%

2028 Presidential matchup

16 options · Leads: AOC v. Marco Rubio · Vol: $300K

—
23%

2026: Trump's bad year?

1 option · Leads: Will the bear case for Trump occur in 2026? · Vol: $261K

▲ +1.9%
7.4%

How low will Trump's approval rating get before 2027?

4 options · Leads: Below 36% · Vol: $240K

▲ +6%
73%

Will Trump declare an election emergency?

1 option · Leads: Before Nov 4, 2026 · Vol: $220K

—
16%

Will Section IV of the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency?

1 option · Leads: Before 2029 · Vol: $189K

▲ +4%
25%

Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026?

20 options · Leads: Maine · Vol: $172K

—
39%

Will Trump run for a third term?

3 options · Leads: Before Election Day · Vol: $152K

▼ -1%
17%

How high will Trump's approval rating get before 2027?

8 options · Leads: Above 46% · Vol: $150K

—
5.4%

2028 Presidential race: exact outcome

31 options · Leads: Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance · Vol: $124K

▲ +4%
11%

Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026?

16 options · Leads: Texas · Vol: $121K

▲ +1%
37%

2028 popular vote margin of victory?

20 options · Leads: Democratic by 9.0% or more · Vol: $106K

—
22%

Will a GOP member of Congress call for Trump's impeachment?

3 options · Leads: Before Jan 20, 2029 · Vol: $103K

—
44%

2028 Republican Presidential ticket

25 options · Leads: JD Vance and Marco Rubio · Vol: $98K

—
33%

Which state will vote first in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary?

4 options · Leads: New Hampshire · Vol: $97K

—
83%

Who will visit the White House in 2026?

21 options · Leads: Mark Carney · Vol: $95K

—
52%

How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (9/27-10/3)

11 options · Leads: At least 1 · Vol: $95K

—
99%

Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 4, 2026?

9 options · Leads: 38.1% · Vol: $93K

—
53%

Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?

10 options · Leads: Pete Buttigieg · Vol: $90K

—
27%

Which states will Trump visit in 2026?

17 options · Leads: Nebraska · Vol: $90K

—
99%

Will the 2028 presidential election occur?

1 option · Leads: In 2028 · Vol: $72K

▲ +2.3%
92.7%

Who will visit Mar-a-Lago in 2026?

11 options · Leads: Jensen Huang · Vol: $67K

—
29%

Who will attend a White House Press Briefing in 2026?

9 options · Leads: Tim Pool · Vol: $60K

—
70%

When will Kamala Harris announce her presidential candidacy?

4 options · Leads: Before Oct 1, 2027 · Vol: $58K

—
54%

2028 Democratic Presidential ticket

23 options · Leads: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pete Buttigieg · Vol: $56K

—
30%

How many times will Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in Oct 2026?

6 options · Leads: 1 · Vol: $54K

▲ +2%
38%

Will Nick Fuentes become President of the United States before 2045?

1 option · Leads: Before 2045 · Vol: $54K

—
18%

How much will US democracy weaken under Trump?

4 options · Leads: Below 7.60 · Vol: $48K

—
87%

Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)

22 options · Leads: Cory Booker · Vol: $47K

—
31%

Who will Donald Trump endorse in the 2028 presidential election?

6 options · Leads: J.D. Vance · Vol: $43K

▼ -6%
44%

Will Zohran Mamdani become President of the United States before 2045?

1 option · Leads: Before 2045 · Vol: $43K

—
12%

Will a Trump family member be the 2028 Republican presidential nominee?

1 option · Leads: Before 2028 · Vol: $38K

—
9.3%

Who will Donald Trump meet in 2026?

6 options · Leads: Gavin Newsom · Vol: $35K

▲ +19%
39%

Which Democrats will underperform Kamala Harris in 2026?

8 options · Leads: Tina Kotek · Vol: $34K

▼ -1%
96%

Who will receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2026?

9 options · Leads: Elon Musk · Vol: $29K

—
49%

Will Trump go on SNL during his second term?

1 option · Leads: Before 2029 · Vol: $26K

—
15%

Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?

1 option · Leads: Kush Desai · Vol: $24K

—
1%

Will the Trump family be pardoned?

1 option · Leads: Will Donald Trump or any members of his immediate family or their spouses receive a presidential pardon before Jan 20, 2029? · Vol: $23K

▲ +7%
74%

Will Bernie Sanders run for President in 2028?

1 option · Leads: Before November 4, 2028 · Vol: $22K

—
15%

2028 U.S. Vice-Presidential Election winner

9 options · Leads: Marco Rubio · Vol: $22K

—
8%

Which city will host the 2028 Democratic national convention?

5 options · Leads: Denver · Vol: $19K

—
43%

Which states will Trump visit in Oct 2026?

8 options · Leads: Nevada · Vol: $16K

▲ +5%
94%

How many rallies will Trump hold before the midterms?

7 options · Leads: Above 20 · Vol: $15K

▲ +1%
99%

Ken Martin out as DNC chair?

1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $14K

—
22%

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party?

1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $14K

—
11%

How many people will Trump pardon in 2026?

5 options · Leads: 100 to 499 · Vol: $14K

—
52%

Will any GOP member of Congress call for the 25th Amendment on Trump?

1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $12K

—
9%

When will AOC announce her presidential candidacy?

4 options · Leads: Before Jul 1, 2027 · Vol: $11K

▼ -8%
39%

Will Rubio and Vance run for President?

1 option · Leads: JD Vance: Republican, Marco Rubio: Republican · Vol: $10K

—
55%

Navajo Nation presidential election winner?

2 options · Leads: Justin Jones · Vol: $9K

—
51%

Will Elon Musk support the Democrats in 2028?

1 option · Leads: In 2028 · Vol: $9K

—
2%

Will it be reported that Joe Biden used Ambien before the 2024 presidential debate?

1 option · Leads: Before 2028 · Vol: $9K

—
94.4%

CLF Cash on Hand (End of Q3)

7 options · Leads: Above $185M · Vol: $8K

—
48%

2028 Electoral College margin of victory?

14 options · Leads: Democratic by 91 to 130 · Vol: $7K

—
14%

When will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy?

4 options · Leads: Before Oct 1, 2027 · Vol: $6K

—
75%

How many states will Trump visit in Oct 2026?

9 options · Leads: At least 6 · Vol: $6K

—
95%

When will JD Vance announce his presidential candidacy?

4 options · Leads: Before Jul 1, 2027 · Vol: $6K

▲ +27.9%
92.9%

When will Trump's next address to the nation be?

3 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $6K

—
80%

2028 Libertarian Presidential nominee

11 options · Leads: Justin Amash · Vol: $5K

—
24%

2028 Green Presidential nominee

6 options · Leads: Butch Ware · Vol: $4K

—
34%

Will Tucker Carlson form a third party this year?

1 option · Leads: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a new U.S. political party with Tucker Carlson as a founder, co-founder, or principal organizer files with the FEC or a state election authority as a political party or party committee before Jan 1, 2027? · Vol: $4K

—
14%

2028 South Carolina Democratic primary winner?

7 options · Leads: Kamala Harris · Vol: $3K

—
22%

Will New Hampshire schedule its 2028 presidential primary before South Carolina?

1 option · Leads: Will it be reported by New Hampshire Secretary of State that the New Hampshire secretary of state announces a specific date for the 2028 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary that precedes the currently scheduled date for the South Carolina presidential primary before Jan 22, 2028? · Vol: $3K

—
94%

Trump's approval rating on Oct 9, 2026?

8 options · Leads: 37.9 to 38.1 · Vol: $3K

▲ +2%
27%

When will Marco Rubio announce his presidential candidacy?

4 options · Leads: Before Oct 1, 2027 · Vol: $3K

—
55%

Will the America Party contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election?

1 option · Leads: a party founded by Elon Musk · Vol: $3K

—
14%

How many ties will J.D. Vance break in 2026?

6 options · Leads: 2 · Vol: $3K

—
30%

When will Biden release his presidential memoir?

2 options · Leads: Before Apr 1, 2027 · Vol: $3K

▼ -1%
98%

When will Jon Ossoff announce his presidential candidacy?

4 options · Leads: Before Oct 1, 2027 · Vol: $2K

—
49%

SMP Cash on Hand (End of Q3)

6 options · Leads: Above $85M · Vol: $2K

—
71%

Will Trump visit the U.S. Capitol again in 2026?

1 option · Leads: Will Donald Trump visit the U.S. Capitol before Jan 1, 2027? · Vol: $2K

▼ -3%
22%

MAGA Inc. Cash on Hand (End of Q3)

7 options · Leads: Above $325M · Vol: $2K

—
93%

When will Trump rename something else?

1 option · Leads: Before Nov 1, 2026 · Vol: $2K

▼ -5%
30%

How many people will Trump pardon in Oct 2026?

2 options · Leads: 0 · Vol: $2K

▼ -1%
50%

Who will Donald Trump talk to in Oct 2026?

3 options · Leads: Narendra Modi · Vol: $1K

—
57%

Will Trump's approval rating increase this week? (10/2-10/9)

1 option · Leads: Above 36.9% · Vol: $999

—
24%

Will Ron DeSantis announce a presidential run in 2026?

1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $992

▲ +5%
17%

Will the NPVIC reach 270 electoral votes?

1 option · Leads: Before 2030 · Vol: $808

—
12%

Will Joe Manchin run for president in 2028?

1 option · Leads: Will Joe Manchin announce a run for President of the United States in 2028? · Vol: $723

—
26%

Midterms: Trump approval in the exit poll?

2 options · Leads: Above 34% · Vol: $420

—
72%

Who will DSA endorse in the 2028 presidential election?

1 option · Leads: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez · Vol: $404

—
32%

Which party will win the 2032 Presidential Election?

2 options · Leads: Republican party · Vol: $316

—
47%

Prior offices of the President inaugurated in 2029?

4 options · Leads: U.S. Senator · Vol: $263

—
55%

Will Laura Loomer join the Trump administration in 2026?

1 option · Leads: Laura Loomer · Vol: $207

—
13%

Midterms: Democratic share of 2024 Trump voters?

1 option · Leads: Above 8% · Vol: $200

—
50%

Who will Obama endorse before the midterms?

1 option · Leads: Jon Ossoff · Vol: $60

▲ +8%
91%

2028 Iowa Republican caucus winner?

4 options · Leads: J.D. Vance · Vol: $18

—
44%

SLF Cash on Hand (End of Q3)

1 option · Leads: Above $300M · Vol: $1

—
10%