Presidential markets

2028 Democratic presidential nominee

48 options · Leads: Jon Ossoff · Vol: $215.7M

+1%
17%

2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?

30 options · Leads: J.D. Vance · Vol: $65.4M

-1%
22%

2028 Republican presidential nominee

38 options · Leads: J.D. Vance · Vol: $64.0M

45%

Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)

3 options · Leads: Before January 20, 2029 · Vol: $7.3M

-1%
24%

2028 Democratic VP nominee

45 options · Leads: Elissa Slotkin · Vol: $2.9M

-1%
12%

Will Trump be impeached?

3 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2028 · Vol: $2.9M

+2%
60%

2028 Republican VP nominee

22 options · Leads: Marco Rubio · Vol: $1.5M

-2%
26%

Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

38 options · Leads: Andy Beshear · Vol: $832K

87%

Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?

1 option · Leads: Before his term ends · Vol: $674K

+1%
15%

2026: Trump's dream year?

1 option · Leads: Will the bull case for Trump occur in 2026? · Vol: $571K

+0.1%
4.3%

2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party)

2 options · Leads: Democratic party · Vol: $560K

58%

Will President Trump be impeached during his term?

1 option · Leads: Before Jan 20, 2029 · Vol: $554K

+1%
66%

Who will Trump pardon in 2026?

32 options · Leads: Keonne Rodriguez · Vol: $482K

20%

Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

35 options · Leads: J.D. Vance · Vol: $451K

-2%
83%

What countries will Trump visit in 2026?

21 options · Leads: Germany · Vol: $444K

-1%
22%

Who will Trump pardon?

51 options · Leads: Donald Trump Jr. · Vol: $406K

61%

Will Trump resign during his term?

1 option · Leads: Before his term ends · Vol: $394K

+1%
22%

Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term?

1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2029 · Vol: $309K

-1.7%
8.3%

2028 Presidential matchup

16 options · Leads: AOC v. JD Vance · Vol: $272K

17%

How low will Trump's approval rating get before 2027?

5 options · Leads: Below 37% · Vol: $261K

-2%
71%

2026: Trump's bad year?

1 option · Leads: Will the bear case for Trump occur in 2026? · Vol: $255K

+1.9%
9.9%

Will Trump declare an election emergency?

1 option · Leads: Before Nov 4, 2026 · Vol: $182K

+2%
27%

Will Section IV of the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency?

1 option · Leads: Before 2029 · Vol: $182K

+1%
25%

Will Trump run for a third term?

3 options · Leads: Before Election Day · Vol: $145K

25%

Who will visit the White House in 2026?

23 options · Leads: Xi Jinping · Vol: $135K

+1%
97%

How high will Trump's approval rating get before 2027?

8 options · Leads: Above 43% · Vol: $132K

5%

2028 Presidential race: exact outcome

31 options · Leads: AOC defeats JD Vance · Vol: $116K

11%

Which state will vote first in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary?

4 options · Leads: New Hampshire · Vol: $93K

+5%
93%

Will a GOP member of Congress call for Trump's impeachment?

3 options · Leads: Before Jan 20, 2029 · Vol: $89K

55%

2028 popular vote margin of victory?

20 options · Leads: Democratic by 9.0% or more · Vol: $87K

+9%
28%

Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?

10 options · Leads: Pete Buttigieg · Vol: $84K

+5%
27%

2028 Republican Presidential ticket

25 options · Leads: JD Vance and Marco Rubio · Vol: $78K

+2%
28%

Which states will Trump visit in 2026?

8 options · Leads: Iowa · Vol: $74K

98%

Will the 2028 presidential election occur?

1 option · Leads: In 2028 · Vol: $71K

+0.1%
90.5%

How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (9/6-9/12)

9 options · Leads: At least 2 · Vol: $62K

99%

Who will visit Mar-a-Lago in 2026?

11 options · Leads: Jeff Bezos · Vol: $60K

34%

Who will attend a White House Press Briefing in 2026?

9 options · Leads: Tim Pool · Vol: $57K

+2%
72%

Will Nick Fuentes become President of the United States before 2045?

1 option · Leads: Before 2045 · Vol: $54K

14%

How much will US democracy weaken under Trump?

4 options · Leads: Below 7.60 · Vol: $47K

81%

When will Kamala Harris announce her presidential candidacy?

4 options · Leads: Before Oct 1, 2027 · Vol: $46K

-6%
69%

Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)

21 options · Leads: Gavin Newsom · Vol: $44K

26%

2028 Democratic Presidential ticket

22 options · Leads: Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez · Vol: $44K

10%

Will Zohran Mamdani become President of the United States before 2045?

1 option · Leads: Before 2045 · Vol: $40K

+1.9%
9.9%

Will a Trump family member be the 2028 Republican presidential nominee?

1 option · Leads: Before 2028 · Vol: $38K

9.3%

Who will Donald Trump endorse in the 2028 presidential election?

6 options · Leads: J.D. Vance · Vol: $35K

42%

Who will Donald Trump meet in 2026?

6 options · Leads: Peter Thiel · Vol: $33K

39%

How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (9/6 - 9/12)

2 options · Leads: Above 0 · Vol: $30K

99%

Who will receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2026?

9 options · Leads: Sean Hannity · Vol: $28K

56%

Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh?

1 option · Leads: Before Jan 2027 · Vol: $24K

+5%
40%

Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?

1 option · Leads: Kush Desai · Vol: $23K

1%

Will Trump go on SNL during his second term?

1 option · Leads: Before 2029 · Vol: $23K

15%

Will Bernie Sanders run for President in 2028?

1 option · Leads: Before November 4, 2028 · Vol: $22K

10%

Will the Trump family be pardoned?

1 option · Leads: Will Donald Trump or any members of his immediate family or their spouses receive a presidential pardon before Jan 20, 2029? · Vol: $21K

73%

Which city will host the 2028 Democratic national convention?

5 options · Leads: Denver · Vol: $19K

43%

Who will Donald Trump talk to in Sep 2026?

14 options · Leads: Catherine Connolly · Vol: $19K

98%

How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump Bedminster in Sep 2026?

2 options · Leads: 0 · Vol: $15K

1%

How many states will Trump visit in Sep 2026?

6 options · Leads: At least 6 · Vol: $15K

+2%
99%

Ken Martin out as DNC chair?

1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $14K

19%

How many people will Trump pardon in 2026?

5 options · Leads: 100 to 499 · Vol: $13K

+1%
65%

How many rallies will Trump hold before the midterms?

5 options · Leads: Above 25 · Vol: $13K

+6%
92%

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party?

1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $12K

+5%
17%

Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 12, 2026?

9 options · Leads: 39.3% · Vol: $11K

69%

Will any GOP member of Congress call for the 25th Amendment on Trump?

1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $10K

-4%
4%

Will Rubio and Vance run for President?

1 option · Leads: JD Vance: Republican, Marco Rubio: Republican · Vol: $10K

39%

When will Trump's next address to the nation be?

4 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $10K

80%

Will Elon Musk support the Democrats in 2028?

1 option · Leads: In 2028 · Vol: $9K

8%

When will AOC announce her presidential candidacy?

4 options · Leads: Before Jul 1, 2027 · Vol: $9K

75%

Navajo Nation presidential election winner?

2 options · Leads: Justin Jones · Vol: $9K

58%

Will it be reported that Joe Biden used Ambien before the 2024 presidential debate?

1 option · Leads: Before 2028 · Vol: $8K

24%

CLF Cash on Hand (End of Q3)

7 options · Leads: Above $185M · Vol: $8K

48%

Trump's approval rating on Sep 18, 2026?

8 options · Leads: 39.1 to 39.3 · Vol: $7K

25%

How many times will Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in Sep 2026?

5 options · Leads: 0 · Vol: $7K

92%

2028 Electoral College margin of victory?

10 options · Leads: Democratic by 91 to 130 · Vol: $7K

14%

When will Biden release his presidential memoir?

3 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $5K

97%

When will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy?

4 options · Leads: Before Oct 1, 2027 · Vol: $5K

74%

When will JD Vance announce his presidential candidacy?

4 options · Leads: Before Jul 1, 2027 · Vol: $5K

74%

2028 Libertarian Presidential nominee

11 options · Leads: Justin Amash · Vol: $5K

24%

How many bills will President Trump sign in Sep 2026?

4 options · Leads: 3 · Vol: $4K

6%

How many times will Trump visit his D.C. golf club in Sep 2026?

4 options · Leads: 1 · Vol: $4K

-6%
40%

2028 Green Presidential nominee

6 options · Leads: Butch Ware · Vol: $4K

30%

Will New Hampshire schedule its 2028 presidential primary before South Carolina?

1 option · Leads: Will it be reported by New Hampshire Secretary of State that the New Hampshire secretary of state announces a specific date for the 2028 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary that precedes the currently scheduled date for the South Carolina presidential primary before Jan 22, 2028? · Vol: $3K

88%

Will the America Party contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election?

1 option · Leads: a party founded by Elon Musk · Vol: $3K

14%

How many ties will J.D. Vance break in 2026?

6 options · Leads: 2 · Vol: $3K

30%

How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (9/6-9/12)

1 option · Leads: At least 10 · Vol: $3K

-2%
1%

How many people will Trump endorse on Truth Social this week? (9/5-9/11)

2 options · Leads: At least 20 · Vol: $3K

-4%
19%

When will Marco Rubio announce his presidential candidacy?

4 options · Leads: Before Jul 1, 2027 · Vol: $3K

50%

2028 South Carolina Democratic primary winner?

7 options · Leads: Kamala Harris · Vol: $2K

12%

SMP Cash on Hand (End of Q3)

6 options · Leads: Above $85M · Vol: $2K

71%

When will Jon Ossoff announce his presidential candidacy?

4 options · Leads: Before Oct 1, 2027 · Vol: $1K

52%

MAGA Inc. Cash on Hand (End of Q3)

7 options · Leads: Above $275M · Vol: $1K

93%

Will Tucker Carlson form a third party this year?

1 option · Leads: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a new U.S. political party with Tucker Carlson as a founder, co-founder, or principal organizer files with the FEC or a state election authority as a political party or party committee before Jan 1, 2027? · Vol: $881

14%

How many Truths will Trump delete in Sep 2026?

3 options · Leads: At least 5 · Vol: $828

92%

Will the NPVIC reach 270 electoral votes?

1 option · Leads: Before 2030 · Vol: $808

12%

Will Joe Manchin run for president in 2028?

1 option · Leads: Will Joe Manchin announce a run for President of the United States in 2028? · Vol: $693

25%

Will Ron DeSantis announce a presidential run in 2026?

1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $649

17%

Which party will win the 2032 Presidential Election?

2 options · Leads: Republican party · Vol: $313

47%

Will a NYT select poll show Trump below 30% approval?

1 option · Leads: Below 30% · Vol: $281

40%

How many Trump-endorsed candidates will lose their primaries?

1 option · Leads: 12 · Vol: $211

-7%
2%

Will Laura Loomer join the Trump administration in 2026?

1 option · Leads: Laura Loomer · Vol: $207

+1%
13%

Who will Obama endorse before the midterms?

1 option · Leads: Jon Ossoff · Vol: $59

83%

Who will DSA endorse in the 2028 presidential election?

1 option · Leads: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez · Vol: $30

22%

How many people will Trump pardon in Sep 2026?

2 options · Leads: 100 to 249 · Vol: $23

11%

Will Trump's approval rating increase this week? (9/11-9/18)

1 option · Leads: Above 38.6% · Vol: $22

9%

2028 Iowa Republican caucus winner?

3 options · Leads: J.D. Vance · Vol: $14

42%

SLF Cash on Hand (End of Q3)

1 option · Leads: Above $300M · Vol: $1

10%