Presidential markets

2028 Republican presidential nominee

37 options · Leader: J.D. Vance

32%

2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?

25 options · Leader: J.D. Vance

17%

How many times will Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in May 2026?

5 options · Leader: 1

▲ +4%

95%

2028 popular vote margin of victory?

20 options · Leader: Democratic by 9.0% or more

14%

Trump's approval rating on May 22, 2026?

8 options · Leader: Below 39.9

▲ +28%

93%

Will Trump's approval rating increase this week?

1 option · Leader: Will Donald Trump's approval rating be above 39.9% for May 21, 2026?

▼ -6%

Donald Trump out as President? (Excluding death)

4 options · Leader: Before January 20, 2029

▼ -0.2%

36%

Will Trump be impeached?

5 options · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2028

62%

Will Trump do anything this week? (5/17-5/23)

8 options · Leader: At least 1

▲ +31%

99%

Who will visit the White House in 2026?

26 options · Leader: Sam Altman

▲ +27%

96%

Will Bernie Sanders run for President in 2028?

1 option · Leader: Before November 4, 2028

▲ +0.5%

8.8%

2028 Democratic VP nominee

45 options · Leader: Gretchen Whitmer

▼ -0.5%

9.6%

Will President Trump be impeached during his term?

1 option · Leader: Before Jan 20, 2029

60%

Who will Donald Trump meet in 2026?

10 options · Leader: Kevin Warsh

▲ +22%

99%

How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (5/17 - 5/23)

5 options · Leader: Above 0

99%

Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

35 options · Leader: Gavin Newsom

87%

Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?

1 option · Leader: Before his term ends

20%

2028 Presidential race: exact outcome

32 options · Leader: Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance

▲ +3%

What countries will Trump visit in 2026?

23 options · Leader: France

▼ -13%

93.8%

Will Trump resign during his term?

1 option · Leader: Before his term ends

20%

How many Truths will Trump delete in May 2026?

3 options · Leader: At least 15

▲ +9%

27%

2028 Republican VP nominee

21 options · Leader: Marco Rubio

▼ -1.9%

Trump late night post this week? (5/17-5/23)

5 options · Leader: 1-2 AM

▼ -11%

41%

Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

31 options · Leader: J.D. Vance

▲ +2.8%

79%

Will the 2026 Pro Football champs visit the White House?

1 option · Leader: Will The winning team of the 2026 Pro football Championship visit The White House before Dec 31, 2026?

50%

2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party)

2 options · Leader: Democratic party

61%

How many states will Trump visit in May 2026?

9 options · Leader: 6

▼ -5%

33%

How low will Trump's approval rating get before 2027?

6 options · Leader: Below 38%

82%

2028 Presidential matchup

16 options · Leader: Gavin Newsom v. JD Vance

▼ -1.8%

14%

Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term?

1 option · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2029

▲ +0.1%

9.1%

Who will Trump pardon?

50 options · Leader: Donald Trump Jr.

▼ -1.1%

50%

Who will Donald Trump talk to in May 2026?

6 options · Leader: Ron DeSantis

28%

2026: Trump's dream year?

1 option · Leader: Will the bull case for Trump occur in 2026?

6.7%

How high will Trump's approval rating get before 2027?

8 options · Leader: Above 43%

26%

Will a GOP member of Congress call for Trump's impeachment?

3 options · Leader: Before 2028

▲ +3%

45%

How many bills will President Trump sign in May 2026?

8 options · Leader: 7

▲ +5%

56%

Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?

10 options · Leader: Gavin Newsom

Who will make a public appearance in May 2026?

1 option · Leader: Joe Biden

45%

Who will Trump pardon in 2026?

31 options · Leader: Rachel Cherwitz

2026: Trump's bad year?

1 option · Leader: Will the bear case for Trump occur in 2026?

When will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy?

4 options · Leader: Before Oct 1, 2027

71%

2028 Republican Presidential ticket

25 options · Leader: JD Vance and Marco Rubio

20%

Will the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency?

1 option · Leader: Before 2029

27%

Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh?

2 options · Leader: Before Jan 2027

51%

Will a Trump family member be the 2028 Republican presidential nominee?

1 option · Leader: Before 2028

12%

Will any GOP member of Congress call for the 25th Amendment on Trump?

3 options · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027

13%

How many people will Trump pardon in June 2026?

8 options · Leader: 0

46%

Will Trump release more Epstein files in May 2026?

1 option · Leader: Before Jun 1, 2026

Will Nick Fuentes become President of the United States before 2045?

1 option · Leader: Before 2045

11%

How many people will Donald Trump pardon in May 2026?

8 options · Leader: 0

▲ +7%

77%

Who will receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2026?

9 options · Leader: Lee Greenwood

▼ -4%

46%

Will Trump run for a third term?

3 options · Leader: Before Election Day

▼ -1.6%

21%

Will the 2028 presidential election occur?

1 option · Leader: In 2028

90%

Will Trump go on SNL during his second term?

1 option · Leader: Before 2029

Will Trump pardon any members of his family?

1 option · Leader: Will Donald Trump or any members of his immediate family or their spouses receive a presidential pardon before Jan 20, 2029?

74%

Who will attend a White House Press Briefing in 2026?

9 options · Leader: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

58%

How many ties will J.D. Vance break in 2026?

9 options · Leader: 2

When will JD Vance announce his presidential candidacy?

4 options · Leader: Before Oct 1, 2027

67%

Will Rubio and Vance run for President?

1 option · Leader: JD Vance: Republican, Marco Rubio: Republican

61%

When will Marco Rubio announce his presidential candidacy?

4 options · Leader: Before Oct 1, 2027

57%

Number of White House Press Briefings in May 2026?

3 options · Leader: At least 3

84%

Which party will win the 2032 Presidential Election?

2 options · Leader: Democratic party

48%

2028 Libertarian Presidential nominee

11 options · Leader: Dave Smith

10%

2028 Green Presidential nominee

6 options · Leader: Butch Ware

Will Elon Musk support the Democrats in 2028?

1 option · Leader: In 2028

5.8%

Will Zohran Mamdani become President of the United States before 2045?

1 option · Leader: Before 2045

▼ -0.6%

8.4%

How many people will Trump pardon in 2026?

5 options · Leader: 100 to 499

▼ -0.1%

63%

Ken Martin out as DNC chair?

3 options · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027

▲ +3%

29%

Who will visit Mar-a-Lago in 2026?

11 options · Leader: Ron DeSantis

70%

Will Joe Manchin run for president in 2028?

1 option · Leader: Will Joe Manchin announce a run for President of the United States in 2028?

22%

Which state will be scheduled first in the 2028 Democratic primary?

12 options · Leader: New Hampshire

40%

Will Trump declare an election emergency?

3 options · Leader: Before Nov 4, 2026

22%

Will the NPVIC reach 270 electoral votes?

1 option · Leader: Before 2030

11%

2028 Democratic Presidential ticket

25 options · Leader: Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

▼ -0.1%

1.1%

Which city will host the 2028 Democratic national convention?

5 options · Leader: Chicago

24%

Will Ron DeSantis announce a presidential run in 2026?

1 option · Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027

12%

How much will US democracy weaken under Trump?

4 options · Leader: below 7.60

78%

Will it be reported that Joe Biden used Ambien before the 2024 presidential debate?

1 option · Leader: Before 2028

5.5%

Will the America Party contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election?

1 option · Leader: a party founded by Elon Musk

2028 Electoral College margin of victory?

14 options · Leader: Democratic by 31 to 60