Presidential markets

2028 Democratic presidential nominee

47 options · Leads: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez · Vol: $185.8M

18%

2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?

30 options · Leads: J.D. Vance · Vol: $60.4M

-1%
19%

2028 Republican presidential nominee

38 options · Leads: J.D. Vance · Vol: $58.1M

44%

Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)

3 options · Leads: Before January 20, 2029 · Vol: $7.2M

24%

Will Trump be impeached?

4 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2028 · Vol: $2.8M

+3%
58%

2028 Democratic VP nominee

45 options · Leads: Gretchen Whitmer · Vol: $2.7M

9.7%

2028 Republican VP nominee

22 options · Leads: Marco Rubio · Vol: $1.3M

+1%
29%

Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

38 options · Leads: Gavin Newsom · Vol: $775K

85%

Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?

1 option · Leads: Before his term ends · Vol: $637K

+1%
14%

2026: Trump's dream year?

1 option · Leads: Will the bull case for Trump occur in 2026? · Vol: $562K

+0.2%
3.5%

2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party)

2 options · Leads: Democratic party · Vol: $536K

58%

Will President Trump be impeached during his term?

1 option · Leads: Before Jan 20, 2029 · Vol: $502K

+2%
62%

Who will Trump pardon in 2026?

32 options · Leads: Nicole Daedone · Vol: $451K

20%

Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

34 options · Leads: J.D. Vance · Vol: $420K

81%

What countries will Trump visit in 2026?

21 options · Leads: Germany · Vol: $413K

35%

Who will Trump pardon?

51 options · Leads: Jho Low · Vol: $391K

89%

Will Trump resign during his term?

1 option · Leads: Before his term ends · Vol: $334K

-2%
18%

Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term?

1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2029 · Vol: $296K

-0.5%
6.5%

2028 Presidential matchup

16 options · Leads: Gavin Newsom v. JD Vance · Vol: $253K

+1%
13%

2026: Trump's bad year?

1 option · Leads: Will the bear case for Trump occur in 2026? · Vol: $248K

-2.9%
7%

How low will Trump's approval rating get before 2027?

5 options · Leads: Below 37% · Vol: $237K

-1%
68%

Will Trump declare an election emergency?

2 options · Leads: Before Nov 4, 2026 · Vol: $237K

-3%
37%

Will Section IV of the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency?

1 option · Leads: Before 2029 · Vol: $171K

+5%
32%

How many times will Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in Aug 2026?

5 options · Leads: 0 · Vol: $169K

97%

Will Trump run for a third term?

3 options · Leads: Before Election Day · Vol: $142K

29%

How high will Trump's approval rating get before 2027?

8 options · Leads: Above 43% · Vol: $129K

10%

Who will visit the White House in 2026?

23 options · Leads: Jaxson Dart · Vol: $127K

97%

2028 Presidential race: exact outcome

31 options · Leads: AOC defeats JD Vance · Vol: $104K

8%

Will a GOP member of Congress call for Trump's impeachment?

3 options · Leads: Before Jan 20, 2029 · Vol: $81K

48%

Which state will vote first in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary?

4 options · Leads: New Hampshire · Vol: $79K

+15%
68%

Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?

10 options · Leads: Gavin Newsom · Vol: $78K

21%

2028 popular vote margin of victory?

20 options · Leads: Democratic by 9.0% or more · Vol: $70K

16%

Will the 2028 presidential election occur?

1 option · Leads: In 2028 · Vol: $69K

92.9%

Which states will Trump visit in 2026?

9 options · Leads: South Carolina · Vol: $68K

+1%
96%

2028 Republican Presidential ticket

25 options · Leads: JD Vance and Marco Rubio · Vol: $59K

+5%
28%

Who will visit Mar-a-Lago in 2026?

11 options · Leads: Ron DeSantis · Vol: $59K

60%

Trump's approval rating on Aug 21, 2026?

8 options · Leads: 39.1 to 39.3 · Vol: $55K

+10%
48%

Who will attend a White House Press Briefing in 2026?

9 options · Leads: Tim Pool · Vol: $54K

-1%
78%

Will Nick Fuentes become President of the United States before 2045?

1 option · Leads: Before 2045 · Vol: $53K

16%

Who will Donald Trump talk to in Aug 2026?

12 options · Leads: Mark Carney · Vol: $47K

+1%
99%

How much will US democracy weaken under Trump?

4 options · Leads: Below 7.60 · Vol: $46K

82%

When will Kamala Harris announce her presidential candidacy?

4 options · Leads: Before Jul 1, 2027 · Vol: $45K

71%

Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)

19 options · Leads: Rahm Emanuel · Vol: $41K

24%

Will Zohran Mamdani become President of the United States before 2045?

1 option · Leads: Before 2045 · Vol: $39K

+0.1%
10%

Will a Trump family member be the 2028 Republican presidential nominee?

1 option · Leads: Before 2028 · Vol: $37K

-3.7%
5.6%

Trump's approval rating on Aug 19, 2026?

9 options · Leads: 39.2 · Vol: $36K

99%

Who will Donald Trump meet in 2026?

6 options · Leads: Peter Thiel · Vol: $32K

45%

How many bills will President Trump sign in Aug 2026?

2 options · Leads: 0 · Vol: $28K

+1%
97%

Who will Donald Trump endorse in the 2028 presidential election?

6 options · Leads: J.D. Vance · Vol: $27K

+7%
47%

Who will receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2026?

9 options · Leads: Sylvester Stallone · Vol: $27K

20%

Will Bernie Sanders run for President in 2028?

1 option · Leads: Before November 4, 2028 · Vol: $22K

12%

Will Trump go on SNL during his second term?

1 option · Leads: Before 2029 · Vol: $21K

-3%
14%

Will the Trump family be pardoned?

1 option · Leads: Will Donald Trump or any members of his immediate family or their spouses receive a presidential pardon before Jan 20, 2029? · Vol: $21K

70%

Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh?

1 option · Leads: Before Jan 2027 · Vol: $17K

-3%
24%

Will James Fishback concede?

1 option · Leads: Before Sep 1, 2026 · Vol: $17K

99%

2028 Democratic Presidential ticket

22 options · Leads: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Andy Beshear · Vol: $17K

+5.6%
9%

Which city will host the 2028 Democratic national convention?

5 options · Leads: Denver · Vol: $17K

37%

How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (8/2 - 8/8)

1 option · Leads: Above 1 · Vol: $15K

99%

Will any GOP member of Congress call for the 25th Amendment on Trump?

2 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $14K

10%

Ken Martin out as DNC chair?

1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $13K

-7%
27%

How many rallies will Trump hold before the midterms?

6 options · Leads: Above 15 · Vol: $12K

83%

When will Trump’s next Press Secretary be announced?

2 options · Leads: Before Sep 1, 2026 · Vol: $11K

-6%
42%

How many people will Trump endorse on Truth Social this week? (8/15-8/21)

2 options · Leads: At least 25 · Vol: $11K

-1%
98%

How many states will Trump visit in Aug 2026?

7 options · Leads: At least 2 · Vol: $11K

99%

How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (8/16-8/22)

3 options · Leads: At least 3 · Vol: $11K

7%

Will Rubio and Vance run for President?

1 option · Leads: JD Vance: Republican, Marco Rubio: Republican · Vol: $9K

28%

How many people will Trump pardon in 2026?

5 options · Leads: 100 to 499 · Vol: $9K

-6%
65%

Navajo Nation presidential election winner?

2 options · Leads: Justin Jones · Vol: $9K

59%

Will Elon Musk support the Democrats in 2028?

1 option · Leads: In 2028 · Vol: $8K

2.3%

CLF Cash on Hand (End of Q3)

7 options · Leads: Above $185M · Vol: $8K

48%

Will it be reported that Joe Biden used Ambien before the 2024 presidential debate?

1 option · Leads: Before 2028 · Vol: $8K

17%

How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (8/16-8/22)

10 options · Leads: At least 1 · Vol: $8K

+2%
99%

When will AOC announce her presidential candidacy?

4 options · Leads: Before Oct 1, 2027 · Vol: $7K

63%

2028 Electoral College margin of victory?

10 options · Leads: Democratic by 91 to 130 · Vol: $6K

14%

Will Trump's approval rating increase this week? (8/14-8/21)?

1 option · Leads: Above 38.7% · Vol: $6K

+34%
55%

Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party?

1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $6K

9%

When will Biden release his presidential memoir?

3 options · Leads: Before Apr 1, 2027 · Vol: $5K

90%

When will Gavin Newsom announce his presidential candidacy?

4 options · Leads: Before Oct 1, 2027 · Vol: $5K

74%

2028 Libertarian Presidential nominee

11 options · Leads: Justin Amash · Vol: $5K

28%

How many people will Trump pardon in Aug 2026?

2 options · Leads: 0 · Vol: $4K

55%

2028 Green Presidential nominee

6 options · Leads: Butch Ware · Vol: $3K

+6%
30%

Will the America Party contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election?

1 option · Leads: a party founded by Elon Musk · Vol: $3K

7.4%

How many ties will J.D. Vance break in 2026?

5 options · Leads: 2 · Vol: $3K

30%

When will JD Vance announce his presidential candidacy?

4 options · Leads: Before Oct 1, 2027 · Vol: $3K

73%

Will New Hampshire schedule its 2028 presidential primary before South Carolina?

1 option · Leads: Will it be reported by New Hampshire Secretary of State that the New Hampshire secretary of state announces a specific date for the 2028 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary that precedes the currently scheduled date for the South Carolina presidential primary before Jan 22, 2028? · Vol: $2K

-6%
63%

SMP Cash on Hand (End of Q3)

6 options · Leads: Above $85M · Vol: $2K

71%

Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?

1 option · Leads: Kush Desai · Vol: $2K

1%

When will Marco Rubio announce his presidential candidacy?

4 options · Leads: Before Oct 1, 2027 · Vol: $2K

65%

MAGA Inc. Cash on Hand (End of Q3)

7 options · Leads: Above $275M · Vol: $1K

93%

Will the NPVIC reach 270 electoral votes?

1 option · Leads: Before 2030 · Vol: $807

12%

Will Joe Manchin run for president in 2028?

1 option · Leads: Will Joe Manchin announce a run for President of the United States in 2028? · Vol: $660

25%

2028 South Carolina Democratic primary winner?

6 options · Leads: Jon Ossoff · Vol: $592

11%

Will Ron DeSantis announce a presidential run in 2026?

1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $505

11%

Which party will win the 2032 Presidential Election?

2 options · Leads: Democratic party · Vol: $275

51%

Will Laura Loomer join the Trump administration in 2026?

1 option · Leads: Laura Loomer · Vol: $200

12%

When will Jon Ossoff announce his presidential candidacy?

4 options · Leads: Before Oct 1, 2027 · Vol: $143

52%

Will Tucker Carlson form a third party this year?

1 option · Leads: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that a new U.S. political party with Tucker Carlson as a founder, co-founder, or principal organizer files with the FEC or a state election authority as a political party or party committee before Jan 1, 2027? · Vol: $126

17%

Number of White House Press Briefings in Aug 2026?

1 option · Leads: At least 1 · Vol: $82

85%

Trump's approval rating on Aug 20, 2026?

3 options · Leads: 39.2 · Vol: $63

45%

Who will Obama endorse before the midterms?

1 option · Leads: Jon Ossoff · Vol: $56

89%

2028 Iowa Republican caucus winner?

2 options · Leads: J.D. Vance · Vol: $13

42%

SLF Cash on Hand (End of Q3)

1 option · Leads: Above $300M · Vol: $1

10%