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Powered by KalshiNavajo Nation presidential election winner?·Buu Nygren·6%(-87%)Who will be the next CDU/CSU parliamentary leader?·Thorsten Frei·89%(+73%)AZ-05 Republican primary margin of victory?·Mark Lamb, 15-20%·89%(+66%)How many new countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2028?·At least 1·65%(+58%)South Carolina Republican Senate special primary: Darline Graham vote percent (1st Round)·At least 60%·4%(-57%)When will Trump's Labor Secretary pick be confirmed?·Before Aug 1, 2026·66%(+53%)Texas's 23rd District margin of victory·Republicans, 17+ pts·2.1%(-50.9%)Will the House vote to ban members of Congress from trading stocks?·Before 2027·99%(+45%)Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (7/17-7/24)?·Above 5.2%·85%(+44%)Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?·Rand Paul·13%(-44%)Next French presidential election winner?·François Hollande·9%(-42%)Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (7/20 - 7/26)·July 26·19%(-40%)Who will be a part of the next government of Israel?·Together·57%(-40%)Which Senators will vote for Todd Blanche?·Lisa Murkowski·70%(+39%)Who will win the next Zambian presidential election?·Hakainde Hichilema·93%(+38%)
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Summary

Lula da Silva, ≥15% is favored at 47% as of 22 Jul 2026, 20:33 UTC across 6 markets. Kalshi odds.

  • Lula da Silva, ≥15%: 47% (24h change 0%)
  • Lula da Silva, 5-10%: 34% (24h change 0%)
  • Lula da Silva, 10-15%: 30% (24h change +8%)
  • Lula da Silva, 0-5%: 23% (24h change 0%)
  • Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-5%: 10% (24h change 0%)
  • Flávio Bolsonaro, 5-10%: 10% (24h change 0%)
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Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

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