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Powered by KalshiNY-12 Democratic primary margin of victory?·Micah Lasher, 4-6%·3%(-93%)RNC Cash on Hand (End of Q2)·Above 120 million·93%(+89%)DNC Cash on Hand (End of Q2)·Above 12 million·88%(+85%)Number of White House Press Briefings in Jul 2026?·At least 3·7%(-67%)NY-13 Democratic primary: voter turnout·Above 70k·99%(+67%)Who will Trump endorse in the 2026 primaries?·Mike Lindell·99%(+66%)Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (7/13 - 7/19)·July 14·65%(+60%)How many UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?·At least 8·27%(-53%)Will the US Mint finalize a design for the Trump dollar before 2027?·In 2026·95.5%(+52.5%)Who will be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer?·Shabana Mahmood·93%(+51%)How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?·Above 60·70%(+49%)Who will attend the 2026 White House Correspondents' Dinner?·John Thune·54%(+49%)Who will serve in Burnham’s Cabinet in Jul 2026?·Wes Streeting·94%(+46%)Will Trump order tariffs in Jul 2026?·Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on imposing new or increased tariffs on any country, provided the action specifies an effective date (even if such date occurs after expiration) during in Jul 2026?·79%(+44%)Joe Biden's presidential memoir release date·Before Oct 1, 2026·8%(-43%)
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Summary

Lula da Silva, ≥15% is favored at 47% as of 15 Jul 2026, 23:32 UTC across 6 markets. Kalshi odds.

  • Lula da Silva, ≥15%: 47% (24h change 0%)
  • Lula da Silva, 5-10%: 36% (24h change 0%)
  • Lula da Silva, 10-15%: 22% (24h change +1%)
  • Lula da Silva, 0-5%: 20% (24h change 0%)
  • Flávio Bolsonaro, 5-10%: 10% (24h change 0%)
  • Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-5%: 9% (24h change +7%)
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Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

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