Live market summary
Mike Thompson is favored at 80% as of 1 Oct 2026, 23:36 UTC across 2 markets.
- Mike Thompson: 80% (24h change 0%)
- Eric Jones: 22% (24h change +2%)
About this market
Market question: CA-04 House winner?
How to read these odds
Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.
Market odds FAQ
Who is favored in CA-04 House winner?
Mike Thompson is favored at 80% as of 1 Oct 2026, 23:36 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.
What are the current odds for CA-04 House winner?
Mike Thompson: 80%; Eric Jones: 22%. These are live market prices.
Where do these odds come from?
Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.