Powered by KalshiFL-06 Republican primary margin of victory?·Dan Bilzerian, 5-10%·2%(-96%)Florida Senate margin of victory·Republicans, 10+ pts·92.4%(+81.4%)Who will Donald Trump talk to in Aug 2026?·Recep Tayyip Erdoğan·99%(+77%)Will Trump’s election order lead to large-scale ballot blocking?·Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the U.S. Postal Service blocks at least 10,000 distinct mail-in or absentee ballots for the November 3, 2026 federal general election pursuant to Executive Order 14399 or a materially equivalent amendment, replacement, or successor measure before Nov 11, 2026?·13%(-72%)Maine State Senate winner?·Republican party·88%(+68%)Who will finish first in the 2026 Likud primary?·Amir Ohana·90%(+53%)FL-25 Democratic primary: Jared Moskowitz vote percent·At least 60%·78%(+53%)Which ballot measures will pass in Colorado?·Initiative #110·16%(-49%)FL-11 Republican nominee?·Joe Strada·81%(+43%)FL-22 Republican primary: David Burck vote percent·At least 15%·12%(-38%)FL-14 Republican nominee?·Mike Beltran·73%(+36%)FL-25 Democratic primary margin of victory?·Jared Moskowitz, ≥15%·72%(+36%)Rhode Island Republican Governor nominee?·Elaine Pelino·94%(+35%)Will Wyoming vote to exempt 50% of primary-home assessed value?·Will Initiative 1 pass?·70%(+35%)New Jersey's 7th District margin of victory·Democrats, 8+ pts·70%(+33%)

Powered by KalshiFL-06 Republican primary margin of victory?·Dan Bilzerian, 5-10%·2%(-96%)Florida Senate margin of victory·Republicans, 10+ pts·92.4%(+81.4%)Who will Donald Trump talk to in Aug 2026?·Recep Tayyip Erdoğan·99%(+77%)Will Trump’s election order lead to large-scale ballot blocking?·Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the U.S. Postal Service blocks at least 10,000 distinct mail-in or absentee ballots for the November 3, 2026 federal general election pursuant to Executive Order 14399 or a materially equivalent amendment, replacement, or successor measure before Nov 11, 2026?·13%(-72%)Maine State Senate winner?·Republican party·88%(+68%)Who will finish first in the 2026 Likud primary?·Amir Ohana·90%(+53%)FL-25 Democratic primary: Jared Moskowitz vote percent·At least 60%·78%(+53%)Which ballot measures will pass in Colorado?·Initiative #110·16%(-49%)FL-11 Republican nominee?·Joe Strada·81%(+43%)FL-22 Republican primary: David Burck vote percent·At least 15%·12%(-38%)FL-14 Republican nominee?·Mike Beltran·73%(+36%)FL-25 Democratic primary margin of victory?·Jared Moskowitz, ≥15%·72%(+36%)Rhode Island Republican Governor nominee?·Elaine Pelino·94%(+35%)Will Wyoming vote to exempt 50% of primary-home assessed value?·Will Initiative 1 pass?·70%(+35%)New Jersey's 7th District margin of victory·Democrats, 8+ pts·70%(+33%)

Summary

Mike Thompson is favored at 77% as of 17 Aug 2026, 22:33 UTC across 2 markets. Kalshi odds.

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CA-04 House winner?

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Mike Thompson

77%

—

$19K

Eric Jones

27%

▲ +2%

$8K