Powered by KalshiFL-06 Republican primary margin of victory?·Dan Bilzerian, 5-10%·2%(-96%)Florida Senate margin of victory·Republicans, 10+ pts·92.4%(+81.4%)Trump's approval rating on Aug 17, 2026?·39.2·96%(+81%)Who will Donald Trump talk to in Aug 2026?·Recep Tayyip Erdoğan·99%(+77%)Will Trump’s election order lead to large-scale ballot blocking?·Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the U.S. Postal Service blocks at least 10,000 distinct mail-in or absentee ballots for the November 3, 2026 federal general election pursuant to Executive Order 14399 or a materially equivalent amendment, replacement, or successor measure before Nov 11, 2026?·13%(-72%)Maine State Senate winner?·Republican party·88%(+68%)FL-22 Republican primary: David Burck vote percent·At least 10%·14%(-61%)How many people will Trump endorse on Truth Social this week? (8/15-8/21)·At least 50·44%(-51%)Who will finish first in the 2026 Likud primary?·Amir Ohana·40%(-49%)Which ballot measures will pass in Colorado?·Initiative #110·16%(-49%)FL-19 Republican primary: Jim Schwartzel vote percent·At least 30%·64%(+44%)Rhode Island Republican Governor nominee?·Aaron Guckian·16%(-43%)FL-25 Republican nominee?·Dan Franzese·51%(+40%)FL-06 Republican primary: Randy Fine vote percent·At least 80%·24%(-40%)Who will Trump pardon?·Jared Kushner·43%(+35.5%)

Powered by KalshiFL-06 Republican primary margin of victory?·Dan Bilzerian, 5-10%·2%(-96%)Florida Senate margin of victory·Republicans, 10+ pts·92.4%(+81.4%)Trump's approval rating on Aug 17, 2026?·39.2·96%(+81%)Who will Donald Trump talk to in Aug 2026?·Recep Tayyip Erdoğan·99%(+77%)Will Trump’s election order lead to large-scale ballot blocking?·Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the U.S. Postal Service blocks at least 10,000 distinct mail-in or absentee ballots for the November 3, 2026 federal general election pursuant to Executive Order 14399 or a materially equivalent amendment, replacement, or successor measure before Nov 11, 2026?·13%(-72%)Maine State Senate winner?·Republican party·88%(+68%)FL-22 Republican primary: David Burck vote percent·At least 10%·14%(-61%)How many people will Trump endorse on Truth Social this week? (8/15-8/21)·At least 50·44%(-51%)Who will finish first in the 2026 Likud primary?·Amir Ohana·40%(-49%)Which ballot measures will pass in Colorado?·Initiative #110·16%(-49%)FL-19 Republican primary: Jim Schwartzel vote percent·At least 30%·64%(+44%)Rhode Island Republican Governor nominee?·Aaron Guckian·16%(-43%)FL-25 Republican nominee?·Dan Franzese·51%(+40%)FL-06 Republican primary: Randy Fine vote percent·At least 80%·24%(-40%)Who will Trump pardon?·Jared Kushner·43%(+35.5%)

Summary

Mike Thompson is favored at 77% as of 17 Aug 2026, 23:33 UTC across 2 markets. Kalshi odds.

house2 marketsLIVE

CA-04 House winner?

All options

Mike Thompson

77%

—

$19K

Eric Jones

28%

▲ +3%

$8K