Live market summary
Before 2040 is favored at 15% as of 15 Sep 2026, 13:06 UTC across 3 markets.
- Before 2040: 15% (24h change 0%)
- Before 2035: 10% (24h change 0%)
- Before 2032: 8% (24h change 0%)
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Will the United Kingdom join the EU?
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About this market
Market question: Will the United Kingdom join the EU?
How to read these odds
Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.
Market odds FAQ
Who is favored in Will the United Kingdom join the EU?
Before 2040 is favored at 15% as of 15 Sep 2026, 13:06 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.
What are the current odds for Will the United Kingdom join the EU?
Before 2040: 15%; Before 2035: 10%; Before 2032: 8%. These are live market prices.
Where do these odds come from?
Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.