1 option · Leads: Will legislation that removes Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor from the line of succession to the British throne become law in United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2027? · Vol: $16K

▲ +6%

35%

Lai Ching-te departure announced?

3 options · Leads: Before January 1, 2028 · Vol: $16K

—

26%

Will Israel and Qatar normalize relations during Trump's term?

1 option · Leads: Before Jan 20, 2029 · Vol: $16K

—

17%

2028 London mayoral election winner?

8 options · Leads: Sadiq Khan · Vol: $16K

—

31%

Turkish presidential election winner?

7 options · Leads: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan · Vol: $16K

—

58%

When will Ukraine hold a presidential election?

4 options · Leads: Before 2030 · Vol: $16K

—

70%

Philippine House winner?

5 options · Leads: Lakas · Vol: $15K

—

38%

Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?

2 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2028 · Vol: $15K

—

54%

Ghana parliamentary election winner?

2 options · Leads: NDC · Vol: $15K

—

59%

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

7 options · Leads: Renan Santos · Vol: $15K

—

59%

Will anyone win outright in the Brazil Presidential election?

1 option · Leads: Will anyone win outright in the first round of the 2026 Brazil Presidential election? · Vol: $15K

▲ +1%

14%

Brigitte Macron wins defamation suit against Candace Owens before 2028?

1 option · Leads: Before 2028 · Vol: $15K

—

51%

Philippine presidential election winner?

5 options · Leads: Sara Duterte · Vol: $14K

—

58%

Gambian presidential election winner?

4 options · Leads: Adama Barrow · Vol: $14K

—

70%

Will Kim Jong-Un visit the US during Trump's term?

1 option · Leads: During Trump's term · Vol: $14K

—

15%

Sara Duterte out as Vice President of the Philippines?

2 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $14K

—

41%

Who will advance in the Brazilian presidential election?

6 options · Leads: Flavio Bolsonaro · Vol: $13K

▲ +5%

94%

Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Held

7 options · Leads: PL · Vol: $13K

—

81%

Malaysian general election winner?

3 options · Leads: BN-anchored coalition · Vol: $13K

—

44%

Will Trump endorse Netanyahu?

2 options · Leads: Before Oct 28, 2026 · Vol: $13K

▼ -1%

59%

Alberta Separation Process Referendum passes?

1 option · Leads: Will the option in Alberta’s 2026 referendum asking whether the Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether Alberta should separate from Canada pass? · Vol: $13K

—

Brazilian Senate election winner?

4 options · Leads: Liberal Party · Vol: $13K

—

78%

Ceará gubernatorial election winner?

3 options · Leads: Ciro Gomes · Vol: $13K

▼ -15%

64%

French socialist bloc presidential primary winner?

6 options · Leads: Raphaël Glucksmann · Vol: $13K

—

38%

Will Steve Witkoff visit Russia?

2 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $13K

—

74%

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

22 options · Leads: Jean-Luc Mélenchon · Vol: $12K

—

87%

Guatemalan Congressional election winner?

5 options · Leads: National Unity of Hope · Vol: $12K

—

41%

Hannover mayoral election winner?

5 options · Leads: Greens · Vol: $12K

—

52%

Swedish Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place

8 options · Leads: Moderate Party · Vol: $12K

—

73%

Ghana presidential election winner?

6 options · Leads: Asiedu Nketia · Vol: $12K

—

24%

Will U.S. direct flights to Russia resume?

1 option · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $11K

—

6.3%

Will Nauru’s name-change referendum pass?

1 option · Leads: Will YES win the 2026 Nauruan constitutional referendum on changing the country's official name from Nauru to Naoero? · Vol: $11K

—

Nigerian presidential election winner?

4 options · Leads: Bola Tinubu · Vol: $11K

—

66%

Will Kash Patel visit Russia before November?

1 option · Leads: Will Kash Patel visit Russia before Nov 1, 2026? · Vol: $11K

—

63%

Will María Corina Machado visit Venezuela?

2 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $11K

—

25%

Which G7 leader will leave office next?

7 options · Leads: Emmanuel Macron · Vol: $11K

▲ +3%

81%

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

6 options · Leads: Lula da Silva, 5-10% · Vol: $10K

—

38%

Next Moldovan presidential election winner?

7 options · Leads: Alexandr Stoianoglo · Vol: $10K

—

19%

Who will become Prime Minister of Italy following the next general election?

11 options · Leads: Giorgia Meloni · Vol: $10K

—

51%

Prime Minister of Greece after the next election?

9 options · Leads: Kyriakos Mitsotakis · Vol: $10K

—

85%

Taiwan presidential election winner?

3 options · Leads: William Lai · Vol: $10K

—

59%

Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City before October?

1 option · Leads: Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City before Oct 1, 2026? · Vol: $9K

▼ -3%

87%

Kenya Senate election winner?

3 options · Leads: Coalition including ODM · Vol: $9K

—

56%

Dominican Republic Chamber of Deputies election winner?

3 options · Leads: Modern Revolutionary Party · Vol: $9K

—

69%

Pierre Poilievre out as Conservative Party leader?

1 option · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $9K

—

16%

Will Elon Musk be charged with a crime in Spain or France?

1 option · Leads: Will Elon Musk be charged with a crime in Spain or France before Jan 1, 2027? · Vol: $9K

—

13%

New Zealand general election winner?

4 options · Leads: Labour · Vol: $9K

—

53%

Ottawa mayoral election winner?

5 options · Leads: Mark Sutcliffe · Vol: $9K

—

63%

Will Nord Stream 2 open?

1 option · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $8K

—

4.1%

Will BRICS invite a new member to join them before 2027?

1 option · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $8K

—

13%

Berlin state election winner?

7 options · Leads: Die Linke · Vol: $8K

—

57%

Will Serbia announce a snap election?

2 options · Leads: Before Oct 1, 2026 · Vol: $8K

—

27%

Spanish general election winner?

4 options · Leads: People's Party · Vol: $7K

—

71%

Turkish general election winner?

4 options · Leads: AKP · Vol: $7K

—

69%

Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?

5 options · Leads: Elif Eralp · Vol: $7K

—

44%

Next Minister-President of Saxony-Anhalt?

4 options · Leads: Ulrich Siegmund · Vol: $7K

▲ +8%

45%

Italian Chamber of Deputies election winner?

5 options · Leads: Brothers of Italy · Vol: $7K

—

61%

Who will be a part of the next government of Sweden?

7 options · Leads: Swedish Social Democratic Party · Vol: $6K

—

86%

How many UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?

4 options · Leads: At least 6 · Vol: $6K

▼ -6%

71%

Greek general election winner?

3 options · Leads: New Democracy · Vol: $6K

—

87%

Who will Donald Trump talk to in Aug 2026?

3 options · Leads: Andy Burnham · Vol: $6K

▼ -19%

47%

What countries will hold referenda on leaving the EU?

4 options · Leads: Hungary · Vol: $6K

—

Kelowna mayoral election winner?

4 options · Leads: Ron Cannan · Vol: $6K

—

64%

When will France announce a snap election?

1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $6K

—

16%

Prime Minister of Serbia after the next election?

6 options · Leads: Aleksandar Vučić · Vol: $6K

—

62%

Who will be the next Secretary General of NATO?

8 options · Leads: Alexander Stubb · Vol: $5K

▼ -7%

19%

Osnabrück mayoral election winner?

4 options · Leads: CDU · Vol: $5K

—

58%

Iceland EU Membership Negotiations Referendum

1 option · Leads: Will Yes win the 2026 Icelandic referendum on resuming European Union membership negotiations? · Vol: $5K

—

56%

Will Trump visit Greenland?

3 options · Leads: Before Jan 20, 2029 · Vol: $5K

—

38%

Will the Canadian carbon tax be repealed before 2027?

1 option · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $4K

—

1.5%

Brazil Chamber of Deputies Election: Most Seats Won

4 options · Leads: PL · Vol: $4K

—

65%

Mayor of Johannesburg after municipal elections?

6 options · Leads: Helen Zille · Vol: $4K

—

51%

Israeli legislative election: how many seats will Likud win?

6 options · Leads: Above 17 · Vol: $4K

—

88%

Israel Katz departure announced?

1 option · Leads: Before 2027 · Vol: $4K

—

45%

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (8/17 - 8/23)

5 options · Leads: Above 150 · Vol: $4K

—

93%

Paraguayan Senate election winner?

6 options · Leads: Colorado · Vol: $4K

—

77%

Will a date be announced for another Quebec Referendum before 2029?

1 option · Leads: Before 2029 · Vol: $4K

—

27%

Which wealth taxes will the UK announce before December?

1 option · Leads: Capital Gains Tax Rise · Vol: $3K

▼ -24%

39%

Next government of the United Kingdom?

19 options · Leads: Labour majority · Vol: $3K

—

20%

Kraków mayoral election winner?

10 options · Leads: Łukasz Gibała · Vol: $3K

—

65%

Victorian state election winner?

3 options · Leads: Liberals and Nationals · Vol: $3K

—

52%

Taiwan Local Elections winner?

3 options · Leads: Kuomintang · Vol: $3K

—

86%

Will Ukraine become an EU associate member in 2026?

1 option · Leads: Will the European Union agree to or announce that Ukraine will receive a Pre-Accession Institutional Participation Status before Jan 1, 2027? · Vol: $3K

—

10%

Prime Minister of Spain after the next election?

3 options · Leads: Alberto Núñez Feijóo · Vol: $3K

—

87%

Kenyan National Assembly winner?

3 options · Leads: Coalition including ODM · Vol: $3K

—

96.8%

Dominican Republic Senate election winner?

3 options · Leads: Modern Revolutionary Party · Vol: $3K

—

71%

How many seats will AfD win in the Saxony-Anhalt state election?

6 options · Leads: 36 or more · Vol: $3K

—

94%

Brazil Gubernatorial Elections: Most Governorships Won

4 options · Leads: PSD · Vol: $3K

—

30%

Poland general election winner?

5 options · Leads: Civic Coalition · Vol: $2K

—

55%

How many people will serve as Prime Minister of the UK before 2029?

2 options · Leads: Above 5 · Vol: $2K

—

When will the UK's social media ban take effect?

3 options · Leads: Before Aug 1, 2027 · Vol: $2K

—

71%

Swiss initiatives: September 2026

2 options · Leads: Neutrality Initiative · Vol: $2K

—

13%

Mexican Chamber of Deputies election winner?

4 options · Leads: Morena · Vol: $2K

—

90%

Will Spain ban bullfighting before 2027?

1 option · Leads: Will Spain announce the enactment of a law that bans bullfighting (‘corridas de toros’) nationwide. before Jan 1, 2027? · Vol: $2K

—

4.1%

Prime Minister of Sweden after the general election?

4 options · Leads: Magdalena Andersson · Vol: $2K

▲ +1%

88%

Ilie Bolojan out as Prime Minister of Romania?

2 options · Leads: Before Oct 1, 2026 · Vol: $2K

—

39%

Keiko Fujimori out as President of Peru?

3 options · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2028 · Vol: $2K

—

12%

Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro?

1 option · Leads: Will Donald Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election before Oct 26, 2026? · Vol: $2K

▼ -1%

85%

Rio de Janeiro Governor winner?

3 options · Leads: Eduardo Paes · Vol: $2K

—

97%

Australian Senate election winner?

4 options · Leads: Australian Labor Party · Vol: $2K

—

69%

Will Ontario lift its U.S. alcohol restrictions in 2026?

1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $2K

▼ -9%

26%

UK Renewables Obligation scheme changes

3 options · Leads: ROC recycle removal · Vol: $2K

—

50%

Cape Verde presidential election winner?

3 options · Leads: PAICV · Vol: $2K

—

68%

Winnipeg mayoral election winner?

3 options · Leads: Scott Gillingham · Vol: $2K

—

68%

When will the next UK parliamentary by-election be called?

1 option · Leads: Before Dec 1, 2026 · Vol: $2K

—

50%

Santa Catarina Governor election winner?

4 options · Leads: Liberal Party · Vol: $1K

—

93%

Nanaimo mayoral election winner?

3 options · Leads: Leonard Krog · Vol: $1K

▲ +11%

81%

Philippine Senate election winner?

2 options · Leads: NPC · Vol: $1K

—

58%

Will Spain announce a snap election in 2026?

1 option · Leads: Before Jan 1, 2027 · Vol: $999

—

22%

Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (8/17 - 8/23)

5 options · Leads: August 19 · Vol: $935

▲ +4%

23%

Will the French United Left primary be canceled?

1 option · Leads: Will it be reported by Front Populaire 2027 that the 2026 United Left primary organized by Front Populaire 2027 is canceled or otherwise not held before Oct 13, 2026? · Vol: $932

—

87%

Will the United Kingdom join the EU?

3 options · Leads: Before 2040 · Vol: $891

—

11%

Finnish general election winner?

5 options · Leads: Social Democratic Party · Vol: $859

—

94%

Traffic through the Suez Canal? (8/17 - 8/23)

3 options · Leads: Above 260 · Vol: $847

—

94%

Slovakia parliamentary election winner?

3 options · Leads: Coalition including PS · Vol: $813

—

54%

French presidential election: who will advance?

13 options · Leads: Marine Le Pen · Vol: $628

—

84%

When will the UK cut or repeal its digital services tax?

2 options · Leads: Before Apr 6, 2027 · Vol: $600

—

19%

Italian Senate election winner?

5 options · Leads: Brothers of Italy · Vol: $519

—

54%

Which parties will win at least one seat in Saxony-Anhalt state election?

1 option · Leads: Greens · Vol: $400

—

45%

Paraguayan Chamber of Deputies election winner?

6 options · Leads: Colorado · Vol: $358

—

82%

How many new countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2028?

4 options · Leads: At least 2 · Vol: $334

—

52%

Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?

5 options · Leads: Pauline Hanson · Vol: $292

—

19%

Nigerian Senate election winner?

2 options · Leads: APC · Vol: $213

—

64%

Traffic through the Panama Canal? (8/17 - 8/23)

1 option · Leads: Above 200 · Vol: $202

—

80%

Will Italy end its additional border checks on arrivals from Spain early?

1 option · Leads: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Italy ends the additional border checks on non-EU travelers arriving from Spain by air or sea that began on August 1, 2026, without replacing them with materially equivalent checks before Sep 1, 2026? · Vol: $200

—

23%

Will Turkey announce a snap election in 2026?

1 option · Leads: Will Turkey announce a snap election before Jan 1, 2027? · Vol: $163

—

13%

Serbian parliamentary election winner?

2 options · Leads: SNS-led list · Vol: $97

—

88%

Bosnia and Herzegovina parliamentary election winner?

5 options · Leads: SDA · Vol: $42

—

75%

Will legislation establishing the Canada Strong Fund become law in 2026?

1 option · Leads: Will X become law in Canada before Jan 1, 2027? · Vol: $18

—

23%

Next Canadian federal election winner?

3 options · Leads: Liberal Party · Vol: $17

—

54%

São Paulo Federal Senate election winners?

1 option · Leads: Simone Tebet · Vol: $10

—

53%

Ontario Liberal Party leadership election winner?

1 option · Leads: Lee Fairclough · Vol: $4

—

11%

Prime Minister of Fiji after the next election?

3 options · Leads: Aseri Radrodro · Vol: $4

—

Will any Canadian province announce a $19+ minimum wage in 2026?

1 option · Leads: Will it be reported by the government of any Canadian province that a Canadian provincial government publicly announces that its province’s general minimum wage is set to increase above C$19.00 per hour before Jan 1, 2027? · Vol: $4

—

Will Alberta announce a minimum wage increase in 2026?

1 option · Leads: Will it be reported by Government of Alberta that the Government of Alberta publicly announces that Alberta’s general minimum wage will be increased above $15.00 per hour before Jan 1, 2027? · Vol: $1

—