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Powered by KalshiWho will Trump pardon in 2026?·Leonard Glenn Francis·99%(+90%)Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?·Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?·3%(-87%)Will a member of Congress resign or be expelled in Aug 2026?·Will any member of Congress be out as any member of Congress in Aug 2026?·11%(-84%)MI-13 Democratic primary margin of victory?·Donavan McKinney, 3-6%·96%(+78%)Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration·$52.5 trillion·15%(-76%)WA-05 primary: who will advance?·Carmela Conroy·96%(+65%)Will any GOP member of Congress call for the 25th Amendment on Trump?·Before Sep 1, 2026·65%(+59%)Michigan Senate Democratic primary: Abdul El-Sayed vote percent·At least 49%·1%(-58%)DE-AL Republican nominee?·Earl Cooper·54%(-44%)When will AP call the Michigan Democratic Senate primary?·Before Aug 6·99%(+42%)WA-08 primary: who will advance?·Trinh Ha·62%(+42%)Who will Trump pardon?·Torence Hatch·80%(+40%)Will Trump's approval rating increase this week? (7/31-8/7)?·Above 38.1%·75%(+40%)Ohio's 7th District margin of victory·Republicans, 4+ pts·18%(-39%)How many states will elect a governor and senator from different parties this year? (Directional)·At least 3·82%(+37%)
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Summary

Dot Plot Omitted is favored at 32% as of 5 Aug 2026, 17:04 UTC across 5 markets. Kalshi odds.

  • Dot Plot Omitted: 32% (24h change +3%)
  • Trimmed Mean Emphasized: 20% (24h change -7%)
  • Reserve President Removed: 17% (24h change 0%)
  • Reserve President Rejected: 15% (24h change 0%)
  • Presser Skipped: 10% (24h change 0%)
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Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken?

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