Live market summary
Emmanuel Macron is favored at 74% as of 4 Sep 2026, 14:33 UTC across 7 markets.
- Emmanuel Macron: 74% (24h change +9%)
- Friedrich Merz: 7% (24h change 0%)
- Donald Trump: 6% (24h change 0%)
- Andy Burnham: 5% (24h change +2%)
- Sanae Takaichi: 3% (24h change 0%)
- Giorgia Meloni: 3% (24h change 0%)
- Mark Carney: 3% (24h change +1%)
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Which G7 leader will leave office next?
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How to read these odds
Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.
Market odds FAQ
Who is favored in Which G7 leader will leave office next?
Emmanuel Macron is favored at 74% as of 4 Sep 2026, 14:33 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.
What are the current odds for Which G7 leader will leave office next?
Emmanuel Macron: 74%; Friedrich Merz: 7%; Donald Trump: 6%; Andy Burnham: 5%; Sanae Takaichi: 3%; Giorgia Meloni: 3%. These are live market prices.
Where do these odds come from?
Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.