Powered by KalshiAlaska Senate primary: Dan J. Sullivan vote percent (1st Round)·At least 1%·84%(+72%)FL-02 Republican primary: Keith Gross vote percent·At least 35%·13%(-61%)New Hampshire State Senate winner?·Democratic party·97%(+58%)New Jersey Senate margin of victory·Democrats, 21+ pts·99.9%(+52.9%)WY-AL Republican nominee?·Kevin Christensen·3%(-48%)When will AOC announce her presidential candidacy?·Before Jul 1, 2027·44%(-43%)Will Wyoming vote to exempt 50% of primary-home assessed value?·Will Initiative 1 pass?·35%(-41%)Which ballot measures will pass in Oklahoma?·State Question 845·76%(+37%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/17 - 8/23)·Above 30·25%(-35%)Michigan Senate margin of victory·Republicans, 1+ pts·72%(+34%)Which ballot measures will pass in Colorado?·Initiative #175·12%(-32%)Will Steve Witkoff visit Russia?·Before Oct 1, 2026·62%(+32%)Michigan's 7th District margin of victory·Democrats, 4+ pts·35%(-30%)Which ballot measures will pass in Alabama?·Amendment 3·83%(+30%)Will Trump publicly call for John Thune to step down as Senate Majority Leader?·Before Jan 1, 2027·15%(-30%)

Powered by KalshiAlaska Senate primary: Dan J. Sullivan vote percent (1st Round)·At least 1%·84%(+72%)FL-02 Republican primary: Keith Gross vote percent·At least 35%·13%(-61%)New Hampshire State Senate winner?·Democratic party·97%(+58%)New Jersey Senate margin of victory·Democrats, 21+ pts·99.9%(+52.9%)WY-AL Republican nominee?·Kevin Christensen·3%(-48%)When will AOC announce her presidential candidacy?·Before Jul 1, 2027·44%(-43%)Will Wyoming vote to exempt 50% of primary-home assessed value?·Will Initiative 1 pass?·35%(-41%)Which ballot measures will pass in Oklahoma?·State Question 845·76%(+37%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/17 - 8/23)·Above 30·25%(-35%)Michigan Senate margin of victory·Republicans, 1+ pts·72%(+34%)Which ballot measures will pass in Colorado?·Initiative #175·12%(-32%)Will Steve Witkoff visit Russia?·Before Oct 1, 2026·62%(+32%)Michigan's 7th District margin of victory·Democrats, 4+ pts·35%(-30%)Which ballot measures will pass in Alabama?·Amendment 3·83%(+30%)Will Trump publicly call for John Thune to step down as Senate Majority Leader?·Before Jan 1, 2027·15%(-30%)

Summary

Before 2027 is favored at 16% as of 16 Aug 2026, 02:04 UTC across 2 markets. Kalshi odds.

policy2 marketsLIVE

Will the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed?

Odds history

Loading chart

All options

Before 2027

16%

—

$276K

Before Sep 1, 2026

1%

—

$12K