Live market summary
AfD is favored at 80% as of 6 Oct 2026, 14:04 UTC across 7 markets.
- AfD: 80% (24h change -1%)
- CDU/CSU: 16% (24h change 0%)
- SPD: 4% (24h change 0%)
- Greens: 3% (24h change 0%)
- FDP: 1% (24h change 0%)
- The Left: 1% (24h change 0%)
- BSW: 1% (24h change 0%)
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Next German federal election winner?
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About this market
Market question: Next German federal election winner?
How to read these odds
Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.
Market odds FAQ
Who is favored in Next German federal election winner?
AfD is favored at 80% as of 6 Oct 2026, 14:04 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.
What are the current odds for Next German federal election winner?
AfD: 80%; CDU/CSU: 16%; SPD: 4%; Greens: 3%; FDP: 1%; The Left: 1%. These are live market prices.
Where do these odds come from?
Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.