Powered by KalshiWhen will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate?·Before Dec 1, 2026·88%(+66%)MO-02 House winner?·Fred Wellman·21%(-64%)Will Ontario lift its U.S. alcohol restrictions in 2026?·Before Jan 1, 2027·83%(+63%)Trump late night post this week? (8/16-8/22)·3-4 AM·60%(+57%)Louisiana's 2nd District margin of victory·Democrats, 50+ pts·15%(-45%)Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/24 - 8/30)·Above 10·70%(+41%)How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (8/16-8/22)·At least 3·5%(-41%)Alaska U.S. Senate primary: Mary Peltola vote percent·At least 50%·48%(+40%)Who will be the next UN Secretary-General?·Rebeca Grynspan·7%(-36%)How many House Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?·5·55%(-34%)Iowa Senate margin of victory·Republicans, 2+ pts·20%(-34%)Who will be the next White House Director of Legislative Affairs?·No new Director of Legislative Affairs·47%(+32%)South Carolina Senate GOP runoff: which counties will Darline Graham win?·Charleston·75%(+28%)Will Tennessee regulate data center water use?·Will Tennessee regulate data center water use?·29%(-27%)Who will win the Pennsylvania State House District 12 general election?·Brandon Dukes·45%(-27%)

Powered by KalshiWhen will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate?·Before Dec 1, 2026·88%(+66%)MO-02 House winner?·Fred Wellman·21%(-64%)Will Ontario lift its U.S. alcohol restrictions in 2026?·Before Jan 1, 2027·83%(+63%)Trump late night post this week? (8/16-8/22)·3-4 AM·60%(+57%)Louisiana's 2nd District margin of victory·Democrats, 50+ pts·15%(-45%)Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/24 - 8/30)·Above 10·70%(+41%)How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (8/16-8/22)·At least 3·5%(-41%)Alaska U.S. Senate primary: Mary Peltola vote percent·At least 50%·48%(+40%)Who will be the next UN Secretary-General?·Rebeca Grynspan·7%(-36%)How many House Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?·5·55%(-34%)Iowa Senate margin of victory·Republicans, 2+ pts·20%(-34%)Who will be the next White House Director of Legislative Affairs?·No new Director of Legislative Affairs·47%(+32%)South Carolina Senate GOP runoff: which counties will Darline Graham win?·Charleston·75%(+28%)Will Tennessee regulate data center water use?·Will Tennessee regulate data center water use?·29%(-27%)Who will win the Pennsylvania State House District 12 general election?·Brandon Dukes·45%(-27%)

Summary

Before Dec 12, 2026 is favored at 8% as of 23 Aug 2026, 03:03 UTC across 1 market. Kalshi odds.

cabinet1 marketLIVE

Pete Hoekstra out as US Ambassador to Canada?

Odds history

Loading chart

All options

Before Dec 12, 2026

8%

—

$2K