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Powered by KalshiWhich abortion-related measures will pass in 2026?·Missouri Amendment 3·95%(+80%)Will Trump's approval rating increase this week? (8/28-9/4)?·Above 38.6%·76%(+56%)Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (September 2026)·At least 15·16%(-54%)Who will win the Pennsylvania State House District 12 general election?·Brandon Dukes·99%(+54%)How many people will serve as Speaker of the House in 2026?·Exactly 2·57%(+48.5%)Which states will Trump visit in 2026?·Alaska·88%(+48%)Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place·Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva·50%(+43%)Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary margin of victory? (Ed Markey)·Ed Markey, ≥30%·9%(-43%)When will the UK cut or repeal its digital services tax?·Before Nov 1, 2026·82%(+43%)Which countries will vote to leave the EU before 2030?·France·6.8%(-39.2%)Will a GOP member of Congress call for Trump's impeachment?·Before 2028·75%(+38%)Who will Donald Trump talk to in Sep 2026?·António Guterres·80%(+37%)Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)·Ro Khanna·25%(-34%)Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (8/28-9/4)?·Above 5.9%·17%(-34%)Which lists will win a Knesset seat?·Religious Zionist Party·41%(-34%)

Live market summary

Before Jan 1, 2027 is favored at 92% as of 2 Sep 2026, 19:34 UTC across 1 market.

cabinet1 marketLIVE

When will Trump's Labor Secretary pick be confirmed?

All options

Before Jan 1, 2027

92%

▲ +4%

$6K

How to read these odds

Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.

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Market odds FAQ

Who is favored in When will Trump's Labor Secretary pick be confirmed?

Before Jan 1, 2027 is favored at 92% as of 2 Sep 2026, 19:34 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.

What are the current odds for When will Trump's Labor Secretary pick be confirmed?

Before Jan 1, 2027: 92%. These are live market prices.

Where do these odds come from?

Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.