ElectionOddsPowered by Kalshi
Back
Live market summary

Benjamin Netanyahu is favored at 47% as of 4 Oct 2026, 07:35 UTC across 34 markets.

  • Benjamin Netanyahu: 47% (24h change 0%)
  • Christopher Luxon: 45% (24h change 0%)
  • Sébastien Lecornu: 25% (24h change 0%)
  • Pedro Sánchez: 23% (24h change -3%)
  • Friedrich Merz: 15% (24h change +2%)
  • Miguel Díaz-Canel: 11% (24h change -3%)
  • Rodrigo Paz Pereira: 11% (24h change 0%)
  • Delcy Rodriguez: 8.9% (24h change 0%)
  • Mette Frederiksen: 8.9% (24h change 0%)
  • Ahmad al-Sharaa: 7.9% (24h change 0%)
  • Cyril Ramaphosa: 7.4% (24h change 0%)
  • Daniel Noboa: 7.4% (24h change 0%)
  • Volodymyr Zelenskyy: 7.3% (24h change -0.7%)
  • Félix Tshisekedi: 6.7% (24h change 0%)
  • Vladimir Putin: 5.5% (24h change 0%)
  • Narendra Modi: 5.4% (24h change 0%)
  • Lee Jae Myung: 5.1% (24h change 0%)
  • Jens-Frederik Nielsen: 5.1% (24h change 0%)
  • Mohammed bin Salman: 5% (24h change 0%)
  • Emmanuel Macron: 4.5% (24h change +0.6%)
  • Giorgia Meloni: 4.4% (24h change 0%)
  • Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: 4.1% (24h change -1.4%)
  • Sanae Takaichi: 4% (24h change 0%)
  • Claudia Sheinbaum: 3.8% (24h change 0%)
  • Denis Sassou Nguesso: 3.5% (24h change 0%)
  • Javier Milei: 3.1% (24h change -2%)
  • Ramzan Kadyrov: 3% (24h change -5%)
  • Nayib Bukele: 2.7% (24h change 0%)
  • Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: 2.5% (24h change 0%)
  • Kim Jong Un: 2.3% (24h change 0%)
  • Xi Jinping: 2.1% (24h change 0%)
  • Frederik X: 1.2% (24h change 0%)
  • Mark Carney: 1.1% (24h change 0%)
  • Irfaan Ali: 1% (24h change 0%)
international34 marketsLIVE

Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

Trade ↗

All options

Emmanuel Macron

4.5%
Trade ↗

Javier Milei

3.1%
Trade ↗
About this market

Market question: Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

How to read these odds

Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.

More international oddsAll political markets

Market odds FAQ

Who is favored in Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

Benjamin Netanyahu is favored at 47% as of 4 Oct 2026, 07:35 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.

What are the current odds for Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

Benjamin Netanyahu: 47%; Christopher Luxon: 45%; Sébastien Lecornu: 25%; Pedro Sánchez: 23%; Friedrich Merz: 15%; Miguel Díaz-Canel: 11%. These are live market prices.

Where do these odds come from?

Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.