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Powered by KalshiFlorida Senate margin of victory·Republicans, 10+ pts·92.4%(+81.4%)Will Trump’s election order lead to large-scale ballot blocking?·Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the U.S. Postal Service blocks at least 10,000 distinct mail-in or absentee ballots for the November 3, 2026 federal general election pursuant to Executive Order 14399 or a materially equivalent amendment, replacement, or successor measure before Nov 11, 2026?·13%(-72%)FL-20 Republican nominee?·Rod Joseph·21%(-57%)Which ballot measures will pass in Colorado?·Initiative #110·16%(-49%)FL-06 Republican primary: Dan Bilzerian vote percent·At least 7.5%·32%(-48%)FL-06 Republican primary margin of victory?·Randy Fine, ≥50%·50%(-42%)Who will Trump pardon?·Jared Kushner·7.5%(-41.5%)How many House Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?·5·81%(+41%)FL-22 Republican primary: David Burck vote percent·At least 15%·12%(-38%)Alaska Senate: who will advance?·Dan J. Sullivan·81%(+37%)FL-06 Republican primary: Randy Fine vote percent·At least 80%·64%(+37%)FL-22 Republican primary: Michael Carbonara vote percent·At least 30%·74%(+35%)US-Iran nuclear deal?·Before Jan 20, 2029·11%(-34%)New Jersey's 7th District margin of victory·Democrats, 8+ pts·70%(+33%)Number of White House Press Briefings in Aug 2026?·At least 2·24%(-32%)
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Summary

Before Jan 1, 2027 is favored at 25% as of 17 Aug 2026, 14:33 UTC across 2 markets. Kalshi odds.

  • Before Jan 1, 2027: 25% (24h change -3%)
  • Before Oct 1, 2026: 8% (24h change -5%)
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