Powered by KalshiPeak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (7/20 - 7/26)·July 22·12%(-60%)MO-01 Democratic primary margin of victory?·Wesley Bell, 6-9%·11%(-60%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/27 - 8/2)·Above 20·96%(+41%)Alaska U.S. House winner? (Person)·Nick Begich III·80%(+39%)Will Social Security’s retirement trust fund be depleted?·Before Jan 1, 2033·51%(+39%)KS-04 Democratic nominee?·Chris Carmichael·24%(-35%)Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?·Before Jan 1, 2027·18%(-33%)Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?·Ron DeSantis·60%(+32%)How many Senators vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?·Above 59·3%(-30%)Greater Manchester mayoral election margin of victory?·Labour, ≥25%·59%(-30%)Who will Donald Trump talk to in Jul 2026?·Ron DeSantis·41%(-30%)Clacton by-election: Count Binface vote percent·At least 20%·69%(+29%)How many UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?·At least 7·51%(-28%)Who will leave California before 2027?·Larry Page·54%(+27%)Jon Ossoff for Senate Total Receipts (Q3)·Above $30M·83%(+27%)

Powered by KalshiPeak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (7/20 - 7/26)·July 22·12%(-60%)MO-01 Democratic primary margin of victory?·Wesley Bell, 6-9%·11%(-60%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/27 - 8/2)·Above 20·96%(+41%)Alaska U.S. House winner? (Person)·Nick Begich III·80%(+39%)Will Social Security’s retirement trust fund be depleted?·Before Jan 1, 2033·51%(+39%)KS-04 Democratic nominee?·Chris Carmichael·24%(-35%)Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?·Before Jan 1, 2027·18%(-33%)Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?·Ron DeSantis·60%(+32%)How many Senators vote to confirm Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence?·Above 59·3%(-30%)Greater Manchester mayoral election margin of victory?·Labour, ≥25%·59%(-30%)Who will Donald Trump talk to in Jul 2026?·Ron DeSantis·41%(-30%)Clacton by-election: Count Binface vote percent·At least 20%·69%(+29%)How many UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?·At least 7·51%(-28%)Who will leave California before 2027?·Larry Page·54%(+27%)Jon Ossoff for Senate Total Receipts (Q3)·Above $30M·83%(+27%)

Summary

Democrats, 2+ pts is favored at 31% as of 26 Jul 2026, 15:33 UTC across 3 markets. Kalshi odds.

senate3 marketsLIVE

Iowa Senate margin of victory

All options

Democrats, 2+ pts

31%

—

$6K

Democrats, 4+ pts

16%

—

$5K

Democrats, 6+ pts

4.5%

—

$2K