Powered by KalshiWhen will the House leave for its pre-election recess?·Before Sep 18, 2026·91%(+81%)Which abortion-related measures will pass in 2026?·Missouri Amendment 3·95%(+80%)Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (September 2026)·At least 15·16%(-54%)Who will win the Pennsylvania State House District 12 general election?·Brandon Dukes·99%(+54%)Will Trump's approval rating increase this week? (8/28-9/4)?·Above 38.6%·73%(+53%)How many people will serve as Speaker of the House in 2026?·Exactly 2·57%(+48.5%)Which states will Trump visit in 2026?·Alaska·86%(+46%)Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place·Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva·50%(+43%)Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary margin of victory? (Ed Markey)·Ed Markey, ≥30%·9%(-43%)When will the UK cut or repeal its digital services tax?·Before Nov 1, 2026·82%(+43%)Will a GOP member of Congress call for Trump's impeachment?·Before 2028·75%(+38%)Who will Donald Trump talk to in Sep 2026?·António Guterres·80%(+37%)Hamilton East-Stoney Creek by-election winner?·Jeff Beattie·63%(+35%)Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)·Ro Khanna·25%(-34%)Trump's approval rating on Sep 4, 2026?·39.4 to 39.6·4%(-32%)

Powered by KalshiWhen will the House leave for its pre-election recess?·Before Sep 18, 2026·91%(+81%)Which abortion-related measures will pass in 2026?·Missouri Amendment 3·95%(+80%)Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (September 2026)·At least 15·16%(-54%)Who will win the Pennsylvania State House District 12 general election?·Brandon Dukes·99%(+54%)Will Trump's approval rating increase this week? (8/28-9/4)?·Above 38.6%·73%(+53%)How many people will serve as Speaker of the House in 2026?·Exactly 2·57%(+48.5%)Which states will Trump visit in 2026?·Alaska·86%(+46%)Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place·Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva·50%(+43%)Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary margin of victory? (Ed Markey)·Ed Markey, ≥30%·9%(-43%)When will the UK cut or repeal its digital services tax?·Before Nov 1, 2026·82%(+43%)Will a GOP member of Congress call for Trump's impeachment?·Before 2028·75%(+38%)Who will Donald Trump talk to in Sep 2026?·António Guterres·80%(+37%)Hamilton East-Stoney Creek by-election winner?·Jeff Beattie·63%(+35%)Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)·Ro Khanna·25%(-34%)Trump's approval rating on Sep 4, 2026?·39.4 to 39.6·4%(-32%)

Live market summary

Keith Sonderling is favored at 87% as of 3 Sep 2026, 13:33 UTC across 16 markets.

cabinet16 marketsLIVE

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Labor?

All options

Keith Sonderling

87%

▼ -1%

$50K

Andrew Puzder

4%

—

$6K

Bryan Slater

4%

—

$4K

Riley Moore

2%

—

$5K

Johnny C. Taylor Jr.

2%

—

$2K

Brandon Williams

2%

—

$2K

Ron DeSantis

2%

—

$723

Patrick Pizzella

1%

—

$7K

Jonathan Berry

1%

—

$3K

Glenn Youngkin

1%

—

$1K

Sean O'Brien

1%

—

$1K

Andrew Rogers

1%

—

$50

Daniel Aronowitz

1%

—

$50

Eugene Scalia

1%

—

$50

Rosario Palmieri

1%

—

$50

Vince Micone

1%

—

$50

How to read these odds

Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.

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Market odds FAQ

Who is favored in Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Labor?

Keith Sonderling is favored at 87% as of 3 Sep 2026, 13:33 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.

What are the current odds for Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Labor?

Keith Sonderling: 87%; Andrew Puzder: 4%; Bryan Slater: 4%; Riley Moore: 2%; Johnny C. Taylor Jr.: 2%; Brandon Williams: 2%. These are live market prices.

Where do these odds come from?

Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.