ElectionOddsPowered by Kalshi
Powered by KalshiHow many new housing units will NYC permit in 2026?·Above 41,000·97%(+92%)Who will be arrested in 2026?·Lee Jun-seok·11%(-87%)Who will Trump pardon in 2026?·Leonard Glenn Francis·13%(-86%)How many 2-K seats will NYC make available for 2027–28?·Above 16,000·94%(+85%)Clacton by-election: 3rd place·Rejoin EU·99%(+83%)Clacton by-election margin of victory?·Reform UK, ≥40%·1%(-80%)FL-06 Republican primary margin of victory?·Randy Fine, ≥50%·10%(-60%)FL-11 Republican nominee?·Joe Strada·77%(+59%)Clacton by-election: Count Binface vote percent·At least 25%·99%(+58%)Who will Trump pardon?·Steve Bannon·29%(-57%)When will the Senate pass a budget resolution?·Before Jan 1, 2027·37%(-54%)Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)·Rahm Emanuel·24%(-53%)Louisiana's 2nd District margin of victory·Democrats, 50+ pts·60%(+51.3%)Will South Korean President Lee Jae-myung serve their full term?·Will South Korean President Lee Jae-myung serve their full term?·57%(+51.2%)When will AOC announce her presidential candidacy?·Before Jul 1, 2027·87%(+47%)
Back
Summary

2 is favored at 67% as of 13 Aug 2026, 21:04 UTC across 4 markets. Kalshi odds.

  • 2: 67% (24h change 0%)
  • 3: 22% (24h change 0%)
  • 5: 9.3% (24h change 0%)
  • 4: 9.2% (24h change 0%)
policy4 marketsLIVE

How many government shutdowns in 2026?

Trade ↗

Odds history

Loading chart

All options

2

67%
Trade ↗

3

22%
Trade ↗

5

9.3%
Trade ↗

4

9.2%
Trade ↗