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Powered by KalshiFL-06 Republican primary margin of victory?·Randy Fine, 20-30%·1%(-97%)Greater Wellington Wairarapa by-election winner?·John Hart·98%(+95%)Minnesota State Senate winner?·Republican party·99%(+75%)MO-02 House winner?·Ann Wagner·12%(-71%)FL-13 House winner?·Leela Gray·78%(+47%)Trump's approval rating on Aug 21, 2026?·39.4 to 39.6·96%(+41%)NYC population change (July 2025 – July 2027)?·Decrease 1-1.99%·45%(+40%)Who will Donald Trump talk to in Aug 2026?·Vladimir Putin·12%(-40%)Texas's 23rd District margin of victory·Republicans, 11+ pts·23%(-37%)How many states will Trump visit in Aug 2026?·At least 9·90%(+35%)How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (8/16-8/22)·At least 4·24%(-32%)Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?·Steve Witkoff·53%(+29%)When will Trump release more UFO files?·Before Sep 11, 2026·54%(+29%)South Carolina Republican Senate special primary runoff: voter turnout·Above 300k·62%(+28%)Who will recognize Palestine before 2027?·Italy·13%(-28%)
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Summary

Before Oct 1, 2027 is favored at 52% as of 21 Aug 2026, 13:07 UTC across 4 markets. Kalshi odds.

  • Before Oct 1, 2027: 52% (24h change 0%)
  • Before Jul 1, 2027: 39% (24h change +8%)
  • Before Apr 1, 2027: 17% (24h change 0%)
  • Before Jan 1, 2027: 8% (24h change 0%)
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