Election Odds Powered by Kalshi
Powered by KalshiFlorida's 10th District margin of victory·Democrats, 27+ pts·98.7%(+83.7%)DNC Cash on Hand (End of Q2)·Above 12 million·3%(-82%)RNC Cash on Hand (End of Q2)·Above 115 million·31%(-59%)Trump's approval rating on Jul 3, 2026?·40.2 to 40.4·97%(+50%)FL-11 Republican nominee?·Tim Wilkins·48%(+42%)Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?·Abdul El-Sayed, 12-15%·50%(+41%)AZ-08 Democratic nominee?·Raymond Keeler·20%(-36%)LA-01 Republican nominee?·Steve Scalise·8%(-29%)How many candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats will win their primaries?·Above 6·48%(+25%)Who will be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer?·Ed Miliband·59%(-22%)AZ-04 Democratic nominee?·Kai Newkirk·37%(+20%)LA-04 Republican nominee?·Mike Johnson·10%(-20%)NY-07 Democratic primary margin of victory?·Claire Valdez, 0-3%·1%(-20%)Colorado Senate primary margin of victory?·John Hickenlooper, ≥6%·3%(-20%)Who will be confirmed by the Senate before the August recess?·Brett Matsumoto·56%(-19%)
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Live summary

Above 249 is favored at 57% as of 3 Jul 2026, 18:33 UTC across 8 markets. Live odds from Kalshi.

  • Above 249: 57% (24h change 0%)
  • 0: 8% (24h change 0%)
  • 3 to 9: 8% (24h change 0%)
  • 10 to 24: 8% (24h change 0%)
  • 25 to 99: 8% (24h change 0%)
  • 2: 7% (24h change 0%)
  • 1: 5% (24h change 0%)
  • 100 to 249: 5% (24h change 0%)
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How many people will Trump pardon in Jul 2026?

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0

8%
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2

7%
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1

5%
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