Powered by KalshiWho will be the next Senate Judiciary chair?·Sheldon Whitehouse·91%(+87%)Who will visit the White House in 2026?·Jaxson Dart·97%(+83%)Which states will redistrict before the 2028 election?·New York·4%(-78%)West Virginia Senate margin of victory·Republicans, 30+ pts·1%(-77%)How many UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?·At least 7·93%(+76%)When will Trump nominate someone to the Election Assistance Commission?·Before Oct 1, 2026·3%(-73%)Alaska House winner?·Bill Hill·94%(+70%)South Carolina Republican Senate special primary margin of victory? (1st Round)·Darline Graham, 5-10%·84%(+69%)South Carolina Republican Senate special primary: Russell Fry vote percent (1st Round)·At least 40%·70%(+68%)Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (8/10 - 8/16)·Above 225·77%(+66%)Will Trump endorse Netanyahu?·Before Oct 28, 2026·26%(-66%)Will Trump’s election order lead to large-scale ballot blocking?·Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the U.S. Postal Service blocks at least 10,000 distinct mail-in or absentee ballots for the November 3, 2026 federal general election pursuant to Executive Order 14399 or a materially equivalent amendment, replacement, or successor measure before Nov 11, 2026?·85%(+66%)Colorado's 1st District margin of victory·Democrats, 63+ pts·94.9%(+57.9%)Ken Martin out as DNC chair?·Before Sep 1, 2026·14%(-55%)When will James McDonald be confirmed as SDNY U.S. attorney?·Before Jan 1, 2027·70%(+54%)

Powered by KalshiWho will be the next Senate Judiciary chair?·Sheldon Whitehouse·91%(+87%)Who will visit the White House in 2026?·Jaxson Dart·97%(+83%)Which states will redistrict before the 2028 election?·New York·4%(-78%)West Virginia Senate margin of victory·Republicans, 30+ pts·1%(-77%)How many UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?·At least 7·93%(+76%)When will Trump nominate someone to the Election Assistance Commission?·Before Oct 1, 2026·3%(-73%)Alaska House winner?·Bill Hill·94%(+70%)South Carolina Republican Senate special primary margin of victory? (1st Round)·Darline Graham, 5-10%·84%(+69%)South Carolina Republican Senate special primary: Russell Fry vote percent (1st Round)·At least 40%·70%(+68%)Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (8/10 - 8/16)·Above 225·77%(+66%)Will Trump endorse Netanyahu?·Before Oct 28, 2026·26%(-66%)Will Trump’s election order lead to large-scale ballot blocking?·Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the U.S. Postal Service blocks at least 10,000 distinct mail-in or absentee ballots for the November 3, 2026 federal general election pursuant to Executive Order 14399 or a materially equivalent amendment, replacement, or successor measure before Nov 11, 2026?·85%(+66%)Colorado's 1st District margin of victory·Democrats, 63+ pts·94.9%(+57.9%)Ken Martin out as DNC chair?·Before Sep 1, 2026·14%(-55%)When will James McDonald be confirmed as SDNY U.S. attorney?·Before Jan 1, 2027·70%(+54%)

Summary

Before Jan 1, 2027 is favored at 89% as of 11 Aug 2026, 19:34 UTC across 1 market. Kalshi odds.

policy1 marketLIVE

When will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?

Odds history

Loading chart

All options

Before Jan 1, 2027

89%

—

$11