ElectionOddsPowered by Kalshi
Powered by KalshiFL-19 Republican primary: Catalina Lauf vote percent·At least 40%·1%(-97%)FL-20 Democratic primary: Elijah Manley vote percent·At least 15%·1%(-95%)FL-22 Republican primary: David Burck vote percent·At least 15%·99%(+94%)FL-19 Republican primary: Jim Schwartzel vote percent·At least 30%·5%(-88%)Alaska Senate: who will advance?·David Leslie·88%(+83%)FL-07 Republican primary margin of victory?·Ryan Elijah, 12-16%·98%(+81%)FL-06 Republican primary: Randy Fine vote percent·At least 55%·99%(+79%)Trump's approval rating on Aug 19, 2026?·39.2·99%(+77%)Who will Trump nominate as FDA commissioner?·Heidi Overton·96%(+76%)FL-06 Republican primary margin of victory?·Randy Fine, 40-50%·7%(-57%)FL-02 Republican primary: Keith Gross vote percent·At least 20%·2%(-57%)MI-13 House winner?·T.P. Nykoriak·5.7%(-56.3%)Who will de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?·Delcy Rodríguez·40%(-55%)Alaska at-large congressional district primary: Bill Hill vote percent·At least 35%·1%(-54%)FL-02 Republican primary: Austin Rogers vote percent·At least 30%·98%(+53%)
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Summary

Below 37% is favored at 68% as of 20 Aug 2026, 04:03 UTC across 5 markets. Kalshi odds.

  • Below 37%: 68% (24h change -2%)
  • Below 36%: 39% (24h change +1%)
  • Below 35%: 32% (24h change 0%)
  • Below 34%: 22% (24h change 0%)
  • Below 33%: 14% (24h change 0%)
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How low will Trump's approval rating get before 2027?

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Odds history

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Below 37%

68%
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Below 36%

39%
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