Powered by KalshiWhen will the House leave for its pre-election recess?·Before Sep 18, 2026·94%(+84%)Which abortion-related measures will pass in 2026?·Missouri Amendment 3·95%(+75%)Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (September 2026)·At least 15·16%(-54%)Which states will redistrict before the midterms?·Alabama·1%(-53%)Who will receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2026?·Sean Hannity·56%(+49%)How many people will serve as Speaker of the House in 2026?·Exactly 2·57%(+48.5%)Which states will Trump visit in 2026?·Alaska·87%(+47%)Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place·Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva·50%(+43%)Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (8/28-9/4)?·Above 5.9%·2%(-43%)When will the UK cut or repeal its digital services tax?·Before Nov 1, 2026·82%(+43%)Will a GOP member of Congress call for Trump's impeachment?·Before 2028·75%(+38%)Holborn and St Pancras by-election: Green Party vote percent·At least 20%·58%(+37%)Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)·Ro Khanna·25%(-34%)Which ballot measures will pass in California?·Proposition 43·36%(+32%)When will Canada and the US finalize a trade deal?·Before Dec 1, 2026·57%(+30%)

Powered by KalshiWhen will the House leave for its pre-election recess?·Before Sep 18, 2026·94%(+84%)Which abortion-related measures will pass in 2026?·Missouri Amendment 3·95%(+75%)Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (September 2026)·At least 15·16%(-54%)Which states will redistrict before the midterms?·Alabama·1%(-53%)Who will receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2026?·Sean Hannity·56%(+49%)How many people will serve as Speaker of the House in 2026?·Exactly 2·57%(+48.5%)Which states will Trump visit in 2026?·Alaska·87%(+47%)Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place·Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva·50%(+43%)Generic Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (8/28-9/4)?·Above 5.9%·2%(-43%)When will the UK cut or repeal its digital services tax?·Before Nov 1, 2026·82%(+43%)Will a GOP member of Congress call for Trump's impeachment?·Before 2028·75%(+38%)Holborn and St Pancras by-election: Green Party vote percent·At least 20%·58%(+37%)Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)·Ro Khanna·25%(-34%)Which ballot measures will pass in California?·Proposition 43·36%(+32%)When will Canada and the US finalize a trade deal?·Before Dec 1, 2026·57%(+30%)

Live market summary

40.0% is favored at 42% as of 3 Sep 2026, 18:03 UTC across 3 markets.

presidential3 marketsLIVE

Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 4, 2026?

All options

40.0%

42%

—

$25

40.1%

30%

—

$25

39.9%

15%

—

$2

How to read these odds

Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.

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Market odds FAQ

Who is favored in Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 4, 2026?

40.0% is favored at 42% as of 3 Sep 2026, 18:03 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.

What are the current odds for Trump's RCP approval average on Sep 4, 2026?

40.0%: 42%; 40.1%: 30%; 39.9%: 15%. These are live market prices.

Where do these odds come from?

Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.