U.S.–Mexico interim agreement is favored at 69% as of 7 Sep 2026, 04:33 UTC across 8 markets.
- U.S.–Mexico interim agreement: 69% (24h change 0%)
- U.S.–Canada interim agreement: 35% (24h change 0%)
- Trilateral revised deal: 25% (24h change 0%)
- Formal 16-year extension: 22% (24h change 0%)
- U.S. withdrawal notice: 14% (24h change 0%)
- Formal USMCA amendment: 13% (24h change 0%)
- Canadian withdrawal notice: 11% (24h change 0%)
- Mexican withdrawal notice: 9% (24h change 0%)
Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
Trade ↗Odds history
About this market
Market question: Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
How to read these odds
Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.
Market odds FAQ
Who is favored in Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
U.S.–Mexico interim agreement is favored at 69% as of 7 Sep 2026, 04:33 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.
What are the current odds for Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
U.S.–Mexico interim agreement: 69%; U.S.–Canada interim agreement: 35%; Trilateral revised deal: 25%; Formal 16-year extension: 22%; U.S. withdrawal notice: 14%; Formal USMCA amendment: 13%. These are live market prices.
Where do these odds come from?
Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.