Powered by KalshiWill Mamdani sign an executive order this week? (8/30 - 9/5)·Above 0·99%(+92%)Missouri: U.S. House nominee method·Parties choose nominees·14%(-68%)How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (8/30-9/5)·At least 3·4%(-64%)Michigan Senate General Election: voter turnout·Above 5.00M·72%(+44%)Who will be a part of the next government of Saxony-Anhalt?·Die Linke·10%(-43%)New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary: Chris Pappas vote percent·At least 55%·46%(-43%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/31 - 9/6)·Above 25·16%(-42%)2028 popular vote margin of victory?·Democratic by 9.0% or more·22%(-38%)Which ballot measures will pass in Massachusetts?·Question 3·69%(+35%)How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (8/30 - 9/5)·Above 2·3%(-34%)Courts consider Amazon a monopoly?·Government wins·41%(-33%)Will construction begin on Trump’s triumphal arch in 2026?·Before Jan 1, 2027·75%(+33%)When will a court halt an NYC municipal grocery store?·Before Jul 1, 2027·24%(-32%)How many people will Trump pardon in Sep 2026?·0·1%(-31%)Prime Minister of Serbia after the next election?·Aleksandar Vučić·89%(+27%)

Powered by KalshiWill Mamdani sign an executive order this week? (8/30 - 9/5)·Above 0·99%(+92%)Missouri: U.S. House nominee method·Parties choose nominees·14%(-68%)How many presidential actions will Trump take this week? (8/30-9/5)·At least 3·4%(-64%)Michigan Senate General Election: voter turnout·Above 5.00M·72%(+44%)Who will be a part of the next government of Saxony-Anhalt?·Die Linke·10%(-43%)New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary: Chris Pappas vote percent·At least 55%·46%(-43%)Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/31 - 9/6)·Above 25·16%(-42%)2028 popular vote margin of victory?·Democratic by 9.0% or more·22%(-38%)Which ballot measures will pass in Massachusetts?·Question 3·69%(+35%)How many Executive Orders will Trump sign this week? (8/30 - 9/5)·Above 2·3%(-34%)Courts consider Amazon a monopoly?·Government wins·41%(-33%)Will construction begin on Trump’s triumphal arch in 2026?·Before Jan 1, 2027·75%(+33%)When will a court halt an NYC municipal grocery store?·Before Jul 1, 2027·24%(-32%)How many people will Trump pardon in Sep 2026?·0·1%(-31%)Prime Minister of Serbia after the next election?·Aleksandar Vučić·89%(+27%)

Live market summary

Above $75M is favored at 86% as of 18 Aug 2026, 15:33 UTC across 7 markets.

policy7 marketsLIVE

SMP Cash on Hand (End of Q3)

All options

Above $75M

86%

—

$1

Above $85M

71%

—

$8

Above $95M

57%

—

$4

Above $105M

38%

—

$16

Above $115M

22%

—

$2K

Above $125M

11%

—

$10

Above $135M

9%

—

$38

How to read these odds

Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.

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Market odds FAQ

Who is favored in SMP Cash on Hand (End of Q3)?

Above $75M is favored at 86% as of 18 Aug 2026, 15:33 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.

What are the current odds for SMP Cash on Hand (End of Q3)?

Above $75M: 86%; Above $85M: 71%; Above $95M: 57%; Above $105M: 38%; Above $115M: 22%; Above $125M: 11%. These are live market prices.

Where do these odds come from?

Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.