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Powered by KalshiMI-08 Republican nominee?·Thomas J Smith·99%(+97%)MO-08 Democratic nominee?·Frank A Barnitz·1%(-95%)Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?·Abdul El-Sayed, 0-3%·99%(+94%)Michigan Senate Democratic primary: which counties will Abdul El-Sayed win?·Wayne·3%(-90%)MO-01 Democratic primary margin of victory?·Wesley Bell, ≥15%·99%(+90%)MO-01 Republican nominee?·Andrew Jones·1%(-89%)KS-01 Democratic nominee?·Colin McRoberts·1%(-86%)MO-04 Democratic nominee?·Jordan Herrera·99%(+86%)Will a member of Congress resign or be expelled in Aug 2026?·Will any member of Congress be out as any member of Congress in Aug 2026?·12%(-83%)WA-05 primary: who will advance?·Nate Powell·4%(-80%)MI-13 Democratic primary margin of victory?·Donavan McKinney, 3-6%·93%(+78%)Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration·$52.5 trillion·15%(-76%)Michigan Senate Democratic primary: Abdul El-Sayed vote percent·At least 53%·1%(-69%)WA-09 primary: who will advance?·Kshama Sawant·1%(-69%)WA-08 primary: who will advance?·Trinh Ha·25%(-61%)
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Summary

Republicans, 4+ pts is favored at 68% as of 12 Jul 2026, 06:33 UTC across 9 markets. Kalshi odds.

  • Republicans, 4+ pts: 68% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 7+ pts: 66% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 10+ pts: 48% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 13+ pts: 44% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 16+ pts: 34% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 19+ pts: 25% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 22+ pts: 19% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 25+ pts: 12% (24h change 0%)
  • Republicans, 28+ pts: 5% (24h change 0%)
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Michigan's 1st District margin of victory

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