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Powered by KalshiMI-08 Republican nominee?·Thomas J Smith·99%(+97%)MO-08 Democratic nominee?·Frank A Barnitz·1%(-95%)Michigan Democratic Senate primary margin of victory?·Abdul El-Sayed, 0-3%·99%(+94%)Michigan Senate Democratic primary: which counties will Abdul El-Sayed win?·Wayne·3%(-90%)MO-01 Democratic primary margin of victory?·Wesley Bell, ≥15%·99%(+90%)MO-01 Republican nominee?·Andrew Jones·1%(-89%)KS-01 Democratic nominee?·Colin McRoberts·1%(-86%)MO-04 Democratic nominee?·Jordan Herrera·99%(+86%)WA-05 primary: who will advance?·Nate Powell·4%(-80%)MI-13 Democratic primary margin of victory?·Donavan McKinney, 3-6%·93%(+78%)Will a member of Congress resign or be expelled in Aug 2026?·Will any member of Congress be out as any member of Congress in Aug 2026?·18%(-77%)Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration·$52.5 trillion·15%(-76%)Michigan Senate Democratic primary: Abdul El-Sayed vote percent·At least 53%·1%(-69%)WA-09 primary: who will advance?·Kshama Sawant·1%(-69%)WA-08 primary: who will advance?·Trinh Ha·25%(-61%)
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Summary

Democrats, 11+ pts is favored at 92.8% as of 5 Aug 2026, 17:04 UTC across 9 markets. Kalshi odds.

  • Democrats, 11+ pts: 92.8% (24h change 0%)
  • Democrats, 14+ pts: 88% (24h change 0%)
  • Democrats, 20+ pts: 82% (24h change +12%)
  • Democrats, 23+ pts: 79% (24h change +26%)
  • Democrats, 17+ pts: 75% (24h change 0%)
  • Democrats, 26+ pts: 73% (24h change +13%)
  • Democrats, 29+ pts: 73% (24h change +21%)
  • Democrats, 32+ pts: 70% (24h change +24%)
  • Democrats, 35+ pts: 63% (24h change +20%)
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Virginia's 11th District margin of victory

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