Before Jan 1, 2028 is favored at 55% as of 16 Sep 2026, 00:35 UTC across 2 markets.
- Before Jan 1, 2028: 55% (24h change +1%)
- Before Jan 1, 2027: 17% (24h change 0%)
Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?
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About this market
Market question: Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?
How to read these odds
Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.
Market odds FAQ
Who is favored in Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?
Before Jan 1, 2028 is favored at 55% as of 16 Sep 2026, 00:35 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.
What are the current odds for Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?
Before Jan 1, 2028: 55%; Before Jan 1, 2027: 17%. These are live market prices.
Where do these odds come from?
Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.