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Powered by KalshiRNC Cash on Hand (End of Q2)·Above 120 million·4%(-85%)How will the Maine Democratic Senate nomination be decided?·Special convention·95%(+71%)Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic (7/6 - 7/12)·July 7·72%(+58%)Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)·Rahm Emanuel·77%(+56%)Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory·Lula da Silva, ≥15%·47%(+44%)CO-04 House winner?·Democratic party·1.6%(-39.4%)Who will advance in the Brazilian presidential election?·Ronaldo Caiado·10%(-39%)Will the Israeli parliament be dissolved?·Before Sep 1, 2026·54%(-35%)FL-25 Republican nominee?·George Moraitis·50%(+34%)Who will Trump pardon?·Jho Low·61%(+32%)How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?·Above 58·56%(-31%)Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary?·Before Aug 1, 2026·29%(-28%)Which bills will become law in 2026?·Surface transportation reauthorization·45%(+26%)Will Trump order tariffs in Jul 2026?·Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on imposing new or increased tariffs on any country, provided the action specifies an effective date (even if such date occurs after expiration) during in Jul 2026?·69%(+26%)FL-07 Republican nominee?·Cory Mills·62%(-24%)
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Summary

China is favored at 24% as of 9 Jul 2026, 03:03 UTC across 4 markets. Kalshi odds.

  • China: 24% (24h change 0%)
  • Argentina: 22% (24h change 0%)
  • European Union: 18% (24h change 0%)
  • Kenya: 10% (24h change 0%)
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Which countries will Trump make formal trade deals with in 2026?

Trade ↗

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