Before Jan 1, 2030 is favored at 39% as of 3 Oct 2026, 22:04 UTC across 4 markets.
- Before Jan 1, 2030: 39% (24h change 0%)
- Before Jan 1, 2029: 23% (24h change 0%)
- Before Jan 1, 2028: 16% (24h change 0%)
- Before Jan 1, 2027: 2.7% (24h change 0%)
Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?
Trade ↗Odds history
About this market
Market question: Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?
How to read these odds
Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.
Market odds FAQ
Who is favored in Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?
Before Jan 1, 2030 is favored at 39% as of 3 Oct 2026, 22:04 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.
What are the current odds for Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?
Before Jan 1, 2030: 39%; Before Jan 1, 2029: 23%; Before Jan 1, 2028: 16%; Before Jan 1, 2027: 2.7%. These are live market prices.
Where do these odds come from?
Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.