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Live market summary

Before Jan 1, 2030 is favored at 39% as of 3 Oct 2026, 22:04 UTC across 4 markets.

  • Before Jan 1, 2030: 39% (24h change 0%)
  • Before Jan 1, 2029: 23% (24h change 0%)
  • Before Jan 1, 2028: 16% (24h change 0%)
  • Before Jan 1, 2027: 2.7% (24h change 0%)
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Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?

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About this market

Market question: Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?

How to read these odds

Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.

Market odds FAQ

Who is favored in Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?

Before Jan 1, 2030 is favored at 39% as of 3 Oct 2026, 22:04 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.

What are the current odds for Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?

Before Jan 1, 2030: 39%; Before Jan 1, 2029: 23%; Before Jan 1, 2028: 16%; Before Jan 1, 2027: 2.7%. These are live market prices.

Where do these odds come from?

Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.