Before Jan 20, 2029 is favored at 40% as of 4 Oct 2026, 10:05 UTC across 7 markets.
- Before Jan 20, 2029: 40% (24h change +3%)
- Before Jan 1, 2028: 35% (24h change -2%)
- Before Mar 1, 2027: 25% (24h change -3%)
- Before Feb 1, 2027: 16% (24h change -3%)
- Before Jan 1, 2027: 13% (24h change -1%)
- Before Dec 1, 2026: 9% (24h change 0%)
- Before Nov 1, 2026: 3% (24h change -1%)
US-Iran nuclear deal?
Trade ↗Odds history
About this market
Market question: US-Iran nuclear deal?
How to read these odds
Each percentage is the latest traded Kalshi price for that option. A 62% contract price implies a 62% market-estimated chance, but prediction markets can move quickly and are not polls.
Market odds FAQ
Who is favored in US-Iran nuclear deal?
Before Jan 20, 2029 is favored at 40% as of 4 Oct 2026, 10:05 UTC, based on live Kalshi prediction-market prices.
What are the current odds for US-Iran nuclear deal?
Before Jan 20, 2029: 40%; Before Jan 1, 2028: 35%; Before Mar 1, 2027: 25%; Before Feb 1, 2027: 16%; Before Jan 1, 2027: 13%; Before Dec 1, 2026: 9%. These are live market prices.
Where do these odds come from?
Each probability is a traded price from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction-market exchange. A contract trading at 62¢ implies a 62% market-estimated chance. ElectionOdds displays the data and does not create its own forecast.